Google

ASEANAFFAIRS
Sign up | Log in

    ASEAN PROFILES

  ASEAN KEY DESTINATIONS

Home>>Daily News>>Vietnam>>Economy>>Tightened monetary policy forecast for Q4 2018

NEWS UPDATES Asean Affairs   October 9, 2018  



Tightened monetary policy forecast for Q4 2018

The State Bank of Việt Nam (SBV) will likely continue its tightened monetary policy in the remaining months of the year after its decision to strictly control lending to high risk sectors in the third quarter didn’t adversely affect the country’s economic growth, according to experts.

In contrast to some concerns that SBV’s regulations on requiring credit institutions to limit loans to high risk sectors such as real estate, securities and consumption in the third quarter of 2018 could slow down the country’s economic growth, GDP in the period still grew well, helping the indicator in the first three quarters expand 6.98 per cent, the highest growth since 2011.

With the high growth, GDP will need to increase by only 6.1 per cent in the last quarter to meet the National Assembly’s 6.7 per cent GDP growth target set for 2018. Economists forecast the target is easily achievable as the annual growth rate of the country’s GDP in the fourth quarter averaged 6.87 per cent over the past five years.

According to Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corporation (HSC), this result will help reinforce the SBV’s policy of tightening credit growth in Q3 and SBV will likely continue the policy in the remaining months of the year. In fact, although the official growth target is set at 17 per cent in 2018, the credit growth limit assigned to commercial banks was only 14 per cent.

“SBV wants to control inflation to keep it below 4 per cent while also ensuring the exchange rate is stable,” HSC analysts said, adding the main tool to achieve the targets is to actively restrict credit growth and SBV will be confident to continue its policy at least until the end of the year as the tightened policy didn’t seem to have a negative impact on Q3 GDP growth.

Though inflation has eased in recent months and is currently below 4 per cent, SBV will remain cautious as inflation normally accelerates in the last months of a year due to seasonal factors, the analysts added.

HSC analysts have also maintained its pre-tax profit growth forecast of listed banks at 45.2 per cent in 2018 though projecting the credit crunch will slightly affect the profitability of some banks.

“We are not worried about this as 2018 will be a special year for growth of the banking industry,” the analysts emphasised.

Net interest margin (NIM) and non-interest income of banks are increasing while their provision costs are increasing slowly, they explained, adding banks also have significant irregular income from sales of collateral assets and investments, and recovery of bad debts. The credit slowdown therefore won’t affect the profit of banks too much.

As for 2019, HSC forecasts pre-tax profits of listed banks will rise by 19.8 per cent against this year despite the continually tightened credit.



Reach Southeast Asia!
10- Nations, 560- Million Consumers
And $1 -Trillion Market
We are the Voice of Southeast Asia Media Kit
The only Media Dedicated to Southeast Asia Advertising Rates for Magazine
Online Ad Rates
Contact: marketing@aseanaffairs.com

Comment on this Article. Send them to  your.views@aseanaffairs.com

Letters that do not contain full contact information cannot be published.
Letters become the property of AseanAffairs and may be republished in any format.
They typically run 150 words or less and may be edited
 
or
submit your comment in the box below



  Today's  Stories                      October 9, 2018 
• Indonesia Pavilion offers development, investment, culture to IMF-WB delegates
• Tightened monetary policy forecast for Q4 2018 Subcribe: Asean Affairs Global Magazine
• Consortium set to build 12 story high-rise in Yangon Subsribe Now !
• Binh Thuan looks to coastal economy
Research Reports
on Thailand 2007-2008

• Textiles and Garments Industry
• Coffee industry
• Leather and footwear industry
• Shrimp industry

• ADB publishes estimated GDP figures for 2018/19
Asean Stock Watch   October 8,  2018

• Asean Stock Watch-October 8, 2018
Asean Analysis                June 15,  2018
• Asean Analysis June  11, 2018
Inflation may yet peak —Diokno
Advertise Your Brand

ASEAN NEWS UPDATES      Updated: 04 January 2011

 • Women Shariah scholars see gender gap closing
• Bank Indonesia may hold key rate as inflation hits 7 percent
• Bursa Malaysia to revamp business rules
• Private property prices hit new high in Singapore • Bangkok moves on mass transport
• Thai retailers are upbeat
• Rice exports likely to decline • Vietnamese PM projects 10-year socioeconomic plan

ASEAN  ANALYSIS

This year in Thailand-what next?


AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More

 


Name

Name


Email

Email



1.  Verifier

1. Verifier

For security purposes, we ask that you enter the security code that is shown in the graphic. Please enter the code exactly as it is shown in the graphic.
Your Code
Enter Code

Home | About Us | Contact Us | Special Feature | Features | News | Magazine | Events | TV | Press Release | Advertise With us

| Terms of Use | Site Map | Privacy Policy  | DISCLAIMER |

Version 5.0
Copyright © 2006-2019 TIME INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT ENTERPRISES CO., LTD. All rights reserved.
Bangkok, Thailand
asean@aseanaffairs.com