Sign up | Log in



Home  >>   Daily News  >>   Vietnam  >>Economy  >> China, US Fed weighed in VN economy forecast
NEW UPDATES Asean Affairs 11 September 2015  

China, US Fed weighed in VN economy forecast

Several future scenarios about Viet Nam's foreign exchange and economy in the context of possible China's currency devaluation and US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike have been put forth by the Ministry of Planning and Investment's National Centre for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast.

According to the centre, in case of a scenario in which China doesn't continuously devalue the yuan but the Fed raises the interest rate, Viet Nam's export to and import from the US in general will decrease by 0.04 per cent and 0.11 per cent in the last quarter of this year, respectively. In the same scenario, the drop will be 0.13 per cent and 0.1 per cent in 2016.

"However, as the US is Viet Nam's key export market with most of the imports being consumer and necessary goods, a rise in US dollar will help Viet Nam's export value rise and contribute to lifting Viet Nam's GDP up by 0.07 per cent in Q4 this year and 0.6 per cent in 2016," the centre forecast.

In this scenario, the Vietnamese dong will be also devalued by 0.96 per cent in the last quarter of this year, according to the centre.

Another scenario is that China devalues the yuan and Fed raises the rate.

"This scenario will be the worst," the centre said, adding that in such a situation, many countries would be forced to join a race to devalue their local currencies in an active or inactive manner, or in other words, a currency war.

"Viet Nam's economy is too small and fragile to become a peaceful island that can stay firm in a currency devaluation storm that will be the doing of other neighbouring and global countries," the centre said.

Elaborating on the State Bank of Viet Nam's decision to devalue the dong by 1 per cent and extend the foreign exchange trading band to 3 per cent in the third quarter, the centre said the dong devaluation did not have significant impact on Viet Nam's exports.

The centre estimates that the country's exports in Q4 this year are nearly the same as in previous quarters this year and will increase by only 0.17 per cent next year, explaining that Viet Nam's imports are mainly for domestic private consumption while imports for domestic production account for only 28.5 per cent of the country's total imports.

With the dong devaluation, the country's import value in Q4 will decrease by 0.06 per cent but will then increase by 0.048 per cent in 2016, the centre said.

Reach Southeast Asia!
10- Nations, 560- Million Consumers
And $1 -Trillion Market
We are the Voice of Southeast Asia Media Kit
The only Media Dedicated to Southeast Asia Advertising Rates for Magazine
Online Ad Rates

Comment on this Article. Send them to

Letters that do not contain full contact information cannot be published.
Letters become the property of AseanAffairs and may be republished in any format.
They typically run 150 words or less and may be edited
submit your comment in the box below

Today's  Stories                           September 11 , 2015 Subsribe Now !
• Tourism Malaysia wooing more travellers from Singapore Subcribe: Asean Affairs Global Magazine
• Thai property firm markets Hat Yai to Bruneian investors  
• China, US Fed weighed in VN economy forecast
Research Reports
on Thailand 2007-2008

• Textiles and Garments Industry
• Coffee industry
• Leather and footwear industry
• Shrimp industry

• Indonesia deploys military to fight forest fires in Sumatra
• Petrol prices should reflect drop in import costs: gov’t
Asean Analysis                   September 3, 2015
• Asean Analysis September 3, 2015
Overall market reached a new peak; surged 9% in sales volume
Advertise Your Brand

Asean Stock Watch  September  10,   2015
• Asean Stock Watch-September 10, 2015
The Biweekly Update
• The Biweekly Update August 21, 2015

ASEAN NEWS UPDATES      Updated: 04 January 2011

 • Women Shariah scholars see gender gap closing
• Bank Indonesia may hold key rate as inflation hits 7 percent
• Bursa Malaysia to revamp business rules
• Private property prices hit new high in Singapore • Bangkok moves on mass transport
• Thai retailers are upbeat
• Rice exports likely to decline • Vietnamese PM projects 10-year socioeconomic plan


This year in Thailand-what next?

AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More






1.  Verifier

1. Verifier

For security purposes, we ask that you enter the security code that is shown in the graphic. Please enter the code exactly as it is shown in the graphic.
Your Code
Enter Code

Home | About Us | Contact Us | Special Feature | Features | News | Magazine | Events | TV | Press Release | Advertise With us

Our Products | Work with us | Terms of Use | Site Map | Privacy Policy | Refund Policy | Shipping/Delivery Policy | DISCLAIMER |

Version 5.0
Copyright © 2007-2015 TIME INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT ENTERPRISES CO., LTD. All rights reserved.
Bangkok, Thailand