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13 July 2009

Vietnam business confidence index up 31 points in Q1

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Vietnam’s business confidence index (BCI) in the second quarter increased 31 points over the first quarter, reaching 130 points, VietNamNet Bridge reported, citing a recent survey.

The survey was conducted by the Viet Nam World Vest Base Financial Intelligence Services and the PetroVietnam Finance Investment and Consultancy Company (PVFC Invest), who surveyed 192 companies in 11 key industries from June 11 through the first week of July.

The result signalled recovery and positive growth for Viet Nam’s economy in the near future.

When asked about the country’s economy, 53 percent of those interviewed said the overall economic conditions had improved compared to 12 months ago and 75 percent believed overall economic conditions would be better over the next 12 months.

As many as 59 percent expected to increase worker hire in the next 12 months and 60 per cent thought their companies would invest more in fixed assets over the next 12 months.

In the survey, most CEOs, managing directors and business managers also expressed the great confidence they had in their companies’ revenues and profits for the next 12 months. Up to 81 percent gave higher sales projections while 72 per cent expected their profits would increase.

All respondents also indicated they trusted the Government’s key measures to boost consumer demand, including reduction of consumer and corporate loan interest rates, and wide dissemination of information about consumer demand stimulus policies.

However, 51 percent of the interviewees said that interest rates on consumer loans from banks should be between 5 and 8 percent to help stimulate domestic consumer demand.

A total of 48 percent of respondents were worried about the depreciation of the Vietnamese dong against the US dollar, and forecast that the rate between the two currencies would be more than VND18,000 per US dollar by the end of 2009.

When asked to make a forecast about the inflation rate over the next 12 months, 42 per cent said they believed the inflation rate would be between 5 and 10 percent. Thirty per cent put it between 10 and 15 percent, only 9 percent pulled it down to below 5 percent, while 6 percent said it would be between 15 to 20 percent.


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