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12 July 2009

Nomura sees Vietnam’s GDP at 4.9% in 2009

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The Nomura International group has forecast that Vietnam’s economy is likely to grow by 4.9 percent this year – 0.9 percent higher than previously projected, said the Vietnam Economic Times.

The group also predicted the country’s GDP growth rate for 2010 at 6.4 percent as compared with its previous figure of 6 percent.

Its analysts announced the optimistic assessment of Vietnam’s economic recovery in a report released on July 3, which was based on data published by Vietnam for the first six months of this year.

The report underlined the strong increase of Vietnam’s GDP, from 3.1 percent in the first quarter to 4.5 percent in the second quarter, fuelled by the growth of the industry and services sectors.

The industry sector, contributing 40 percent of the GDP, recorded a surge from 1.5 percent in the first quarter to 4.3 percent in the second. Meanwhile, the services sector increased from 5.4 to 5.9 percent.

The Nomura group concluded that Vietnam’s monetary and fiscal policies and its interest rate subsidisation policies have well supported its economic development.

Managing Director of the Small Enterprise Assistance Fund in Vietnam, Keirn O’ Connor, shared his view, saying that small and medium-sized enterprises have shown satisfactory performance in recent months.

The recovery of the domestic stock and property markets also played a part in the rise, and in boosting confidence in the economy, O’Connor said.

However, Nomura analysts also warned that budget overspending in 2009, which is expected to be higher than in previous years, and the interest rate subsidisation programme are among issues of concern.

In addition, according to O’ Connor, the US and European markets have not been recovering as expected, providing another challenge for the country in increasing its exports.

The Vietnamese government should pay attention to using economic levers, maintaining the stability of foreign currency reserves and the value of the Vietnamese dong, O’Connor suggested.


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