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NEW UPDATES Asean Affairs  16 April 2014  

Thailand retail sales slow as the economy heads towards recession

THE golden Buddha statues, amulets and lucky charms that festoon Sakuntala Mettawong’s tiny Bangkok cellphone shop are not helping business.

It’s peak time, but customers are scarce at the usually bustling mobile phone bazaar in the MBK Centre, which sits on the fringe of a mile-long cluster of gleaming malls that symbolise the rapid growth of Thailand’s consumer class.

“Business has been very bad. Many shops have left here, some moved to find cheaper spots or changed hands,” said Sakuntala, almost drowned out by the noise of bored shop owners playing computer games behind her.

An economy known for its dynamism is ailing, headed towards recession and held hostage by another crippling bout of turmoil in an eight-year power struggle being fought in Bangkok’s commercial heart and in its politicised courts.

The intractable crisis centres on the political dominance of the billionaire Shinawatra family, and the slim prospect of a resolution has been sapping consumer confidence, which sank in February to a 12 and a half-year low.

Economists say five months of sporadic violence and anti-government blockades that have scared off tourists could cost 300 billion baht ($12.1 billion) in lost revenue.

Some businesses fear the Teflon coating on what’s for years been one of Asia’s most resilient economies could finally be wearing off.

“Consumers have no mood to spend. We’ve seen demand falling in every segment of our products,” said Boonkiat Chokwatana, chairman of consumer product distributor ICC International Pcl.

In more than 43 years in business, we’ve never needed to cut our costs, even during the 1997 financial crisis. This year the situation is quite critical.”

With legal cases stacking up against Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, the confrontation pitting royalists, tycoons and scions tied with the old and new political orders against each other could get much worse.

Yingluck’s mostly rural, working class supporters are convinced powerful forces in Thailand’s establishment are conspiring to overthrow her, most likely via a court ruling, and they have vowed to fight back.

The outlook for the economy looks just as grim, with some economists forecasting growth of less than two per cent or even contraction if growth of exports, worth 60 per cent of gross domestic product, falls short of the 4.5 per cent forecast by the central bank.

The International Monetary Fund projected growth of 2.5 per cent this year, the slowest among Asian economies.

The central bank has cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.0 per cent, the lowest since December 2010, and expects the economy to shrink in the first quarter. If that trend continues for another quarter, Thailand would be in recession for the first time since early 2009.--Reuters

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This year in Thailand-what next?

AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More






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