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NEWS UPDATES Asean Affairs     August 30,  2016  





Singapore, Indonesia are losing export competitiveness: Credit Suisse


Singapore is losing export competitiveness in the region and this is due to rising costs, according to Credit Suisse economists.

Their research also found that the Republic's small, trade-dependent economy is losing market share in the global goods trade, which means export growth will likely remain weak in the coming years.

Vietnam, the Philippines and China are winning the export race in Asia, according to the report by Credit Suisse head of South-east Asia and India economics and strategy Santitarn Sathirathai, economist Michael Wan and Ray Farris, its head of Asia macro strategy.

The top three exporters have been gaining market share, thanks to improving competitiveness and having the right product mix.

Meanwhile, Indonesia, Taiwan and Singapore have underperformed global trade in recent years, driven by an erosion in their export competitiveness.

Economies in the "middle" include India, Thailand, Malaysia, and South Korea.

In Singapore, "wages have continued to rise in spite of low productivity growth, depressing corporate profits and pushing up unit labor costs, driven in part by the foreign- labor curbs imposed since 2010", the report noted.

As a result, investment growth has slowed and various surveys have indicated that businesses in Singapore intend to invest less.

"All these bode ill for the prospect of goods exports moving forward," the report added.

While Singapore's export growth has underperformed the pace of global trade, Vietnam's year-on-year export growth has outpaced global trade growth by 12 to 14 per cent on average since 2000.

There are also initial signs that the weakness in exports has spilled over beyond the goods sector into services.

The report said Singapore stands out because its deteriorating competitiveness comes alongside flagging economic growth, negative inflation and an extreme dependence on exports.

This mix is likely to prompt Singapore's central bank to ease monetary policy at its next meeting in October, the report's authors said.

Separately, a report released last Friday by ANZ Research noted that exports across Asia - with the exception of Vietnam - have been shrinking for two years amid weak demand. But with governments in the region pumping money into stimulating their economies, trade in Asia is becoming increasingly import-driven.

As domestic demand recovers, import growth should start gaining traction next year even though exports might still be lackluster, the report said.

However, this might not turn out to be the case in Singapore, which was once again highlighted as a laggard. Domestic demand is expected to remain weak on the back of poor consumer confidence.

"The slump in consumer confidence suggests consumers will remain cautious, especially with the risk of external weakness spilling into domestic activity," the report's authors noted.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Philippines and Vietnam have reported the most resilient domestic demand among their fellow Asian economies.



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It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

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Indonesia  to launch 13th economic package this month

Coordinating Economic Minister Darmin Nasution said on Wednesday that the government would release its 13th economic policy package in August, adding that the draft had been completed.

Darmin said the 13th package was largely an extension of the previous one, but would expand its focus beyond industry. The 12th package focused on small and medium enterprises.

"We are just waiting to schedule a meeting with the president," Darmin told reporters at his office. He refused to give the exact date the new policy package would come into effect.

 The ministry team must meet with President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo one more time to finalize the details, Darmin said.
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