Google

ASEANAFFAIRS
Sign up | Log in

    ASEAN PROFILES

  ASEAN KEY DESTINATIONS

Home  >>   Daily News  >>   Philippines News  >>   Economy  >>   Philippines faces bright economic prospects for 2013
NEWS UPDATES Asean Affairs   14 December 2012 

Philippines faces bright economic prospects for 2013

12-Dec-2012

The Philippines continued to generate positive economic forecasts from foreign institutions following a surprise third-quarter growth.

For this year, Citigroup raised its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 6.3 per cent from 5 per cent and to 6.1 per cent from 5.3 per cent in 2013, citing accelerated government spending and stable domestic demand.

British bank HSBC also revised its 2012 forecast to 6.2 per cent from 5.7 per cent although for 2013, the forecast was pared down to 4.9 per cent from 5.7 per cent given the continuing external headwinds.

Both Citi and HSBC expected the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to keep its key interest rates on hold at 3.5 per cent for the next policy rate-setting.

Minda Olonan, head of Philippine equity research at Citi, said the Philippines would benefit from more pronounced growth drivers such as excise tax reforms, accelerated bidding of key public-private partnership (PPP) projects and a credit-rating upgrade. She said public infrastructure could be the medium-term “game changer”.

“Better fiscal health is enabling the government to be more proactive in stimulating the economy. Aside from the PPP infrastructure agenda, the government is embarking on a 325-billion peso (US$7.9 billion) multi-year flood works and drainage programme, a spending that is larger than the 233-billion peso cost of the PPP projects. We believe this may lift the country’s investment/GDP ratio that will eventually accelerate economic growth,” she said in a December 7 research.

Citi believes that banks, property, consumer, utilities and conglomerates will benefit from the investment spending dividend. The bank’s top picks on a 12-month view are Ayala Land, SM Investments, Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co., Ayala Corp. and Puregold Price Club Inc.

HSBC economist Trinh Nguyen said a major force behind this year’s growth has been the country’s strong institutions, specially the BSP.

“Monetary officials have alleviated price pressures by successfully sterilising capital inflows to contain money supply growth. Closely monitoring rice supply as well as bolstering food sufficiency policy has also helped,” she said.

“A slowdown of inflation to 2.8 per cent year on year in November in spite of accelerating growth reflects the institution’s sound management of the economy,” Nguyen said, adding that benign inflation has given monetary officials the space to cut rates by 100 basis points in 2012.

But Nguyen said the BSP was not the only champion behind the country’s strong performance. “President Aquino’s efforts to increase efficiency of fiscal spending and revenue collection gave the government the room necessary to counter-balance the global slump with increased expenditure. A look at the breakdown of growth shows that private consumption, government spending and investment have contributed to growth thus far in 2012,” she said.

While external headwinds persist and likely drag down the Philippines’ electronics exports, HSBC expects growth to remain robust in 2013 on the back of strong fiscal spending, low interest rates and resilient remittances.

She said monetary officials would likely hold rates at the next meeting to assess the impact of the recent acceleration in growth as well as the 100-basis-point cut so far this year. “Inflation will likely be benign in first half of 2013, thanks to contained food and oil prices, allowing the BSP to support growth,” she said.

“Though external conditions remain weak, strong domestic demand will keep the BSP vigilant and hold rates.”*US$1=40.9 pesos  




Reach Southeast Asia!
10- Nations, 560- Million Consumers
And $1 -Trillion Market
We are the Voice of Southeast Asia Media Kit
The only Media Dedicated to Southeast Asia Advertising Rates for Magazine
  Online Ad Rates
Contact: marketing@aseanaffairs.com

Comment on this Article. Send them to  your.views@aseanaffairs.com

Letters that do not contain full contact information cannot be published.
Letters become the property of AseanAffairs and may be republished in any format.
They typically run 150 words or less and may be edited
 
or
submit your comment in the box below



 
Today's  Stories    14 December 2012  
Subsribe Now !
• Thailand’s Richest to grow richer on economy’s 6% growth  Subcribe: Asean Affairs Global Magazine
• Philippines faces bright economic prospects for 2013 Asean Affairs Premium
• International investors favor status quo in power in Malaysia
• Korean firms interested in making halal cosmetics
Research Reports
on Thailand 2007-2008

•Textiles and Garments Industry

•Coffee industry

•Leather and footwear industry

•Shrimp industry

• IMF says Malaysia’s economic outlook stable
• Indonesian rupiah at three-year low  
 • Mekong energy integration prioritises Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar
   
Asean Analysis              12 December 2012      Advertise Your Brand
• Asean Analysis- December 12, 2012  
• Asean Weekly-  December 7, 2012 Sponsor Our Events

Asean Stock Watch      13 December 2012   

 
• Asean Stock Watch- Demcember 13, 2012 

ASEAN NEWS UPDATES      Updated: 04 January 2011

 • Women Shariah scholars see gender gap closing
• Bank Indonesia may hold key rate as inflation hits 7 percent

• Bursa Malaysia to revamp business rules
• Private property prices hit new high in Singapore • Bangkok moves on mass transport
• Thai retailers are upbeat
• Rice exports likely to decline • Vietnamese PM projects 10-year socioeconomic plan

ASEAN  ANALYSIS

This year in Thailand-what next?

AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More

 

Name

Name


Email

Email



1.  Verifier

1. Verifier

For security purposes, we ask that you enter the security code that is shown in the graphic. Please enter the code exactly as it is shown in the graphic.
Your Code
Enter Code

Home | About Us | Contact Us | Special Feature | Features | News | Magazine | Events | TV | Press Release | Advertise With us

| Terms of Use | Site Map | Privacy Policy  | DISCLAIMER |

Version 5.0
Copyright © 2006-2017 TIME INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT ENTERPRISES CO., LTD. All rights reserved.
Bangkok, Thailand
asean@aseanaffairs.com