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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs   15 September  2011

Asean Stock Watch- September 15



Overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 44.73 points, or 0.40 percent to 11,105.85 after German Chancellor Angela Merkel suggested the debt-plagued country was making progress in meeting the demands of foreign creditors.


Indonesian financial markets fell on Wednesday amid fears that Greece might default on its debt, which could discourage investors from riskier investments in developing economies, including Indonesia’s. That prompted overseas funds to unload their assets in emerging markets. The Jakarta Composite Index, the benchmark stock index, dropped 2 percent in its fourth day of declines, and foreign investors sold Rp 1.4 trillion worth of shares.

Hartadi said pressure on the rupiah in the past five days remained subdued. Other Asian currencies also depreciated. India’s rupee slid to a near two-year low, while the South Korean won fell the most in 15 months.

“Actually, the rupiah depreciated relatively less compared to what happened in neighboring countries in the past few days, except today,” Hartadi said.

Perry Wardjiyo, a director for monetary research at Bank Indonesia said the decline in the country’s financial markets could be attributed to concerns about Moody’s ratings downgrade of two French banks.

“The pressure will be short-lived,” Perry said. “We will continue to monitor and guard the stability of the rupiah,’’ Perry said.”

Separately, Rahmat Waluyanto, director general of the Finance Ministry’s debt management office, said the rupiah depreciated due to fears in the euro zone, which caused investors to think the European debt crisis will worsen.

“So, they prefer to hold on to the US dollar,’’ Rahmat said.

Still, Rahmat insisted that there was no capital outflow.

“This is far from capital outflow,” Rahmat said. “Hopefully, this will be temporary. All long-term investors have continued to hold our bonds.”

Today the Asian Development Bank cut its 2011 growth forecast for Asia, excluding Japan, to 7.5 percent from 7.8 percent on signs that a global economic recovery is faltering.


The FBM KLCI closed 10.39 points, or 0.72 percent lower, at 1,437.61 on Wednesday, tracking cues that saw a decline across its regional peers.

Turnover was 766.815 million shares done valued at RM1.312bil. Losers outpaced gainers 583 to 163, while 280 counters were unchanged.

Among heavyweights, Maybank was unchanged at RM8.60, CIMB Bank shed three sen to RM7.02 and Sime lost 23 sen to RM8.47.

Top actives, Systech declined 3.5 sen to 25.5 sen, E&O fell 11 sen to RM1.51, while AirAsia was unchanged at RM3.43.

Earlier in the day, HwangDBS Vickers Research said in a report issued today that the local bourse is expected to show a mixed market breadth with its benchmark FBM KLCI likely to swing sideways inside a narrow trading range in the absence of market-moving news.

“There was no visible lead from Wall Street last night as major US equity indices finished slightly up (by between 0.4 percent and 1.5 percent) on hopes that the European sovereign debt crisis would not worsen,” it said.

Regional peers rebounded with Shanghai SE Composite up 0.55 percent to 2,484.83, Singapore's STI added 0.51 percent to 2,743.38, while Kospi lost 3.52 percent to 1,749.16.

The ringgit weakened against the US dollar to 3.0782 from yesterday's close at 3.0552.

Crude oil was down at US$89.06 from yesterday's close of US$90.21.


The Philippine peso fell to a two-month low while the Philippine stock market slipped further below the key support of 4,300 points on Wednesday amid lingering worries over the euro zone’s debt crisis as well as the US’ weak economy.

At the Philippine Stock Exchange, the composite index fell 34.05 points, or 0.79 percent to 4,258.86, falling way below its support of 4,300. The broader all-shares index fell 26.57 points, or 0.88 percent to 3,000.66 with all sub-indices in the red.

Decliners beat advancers, 113 to 34, while 45 stocks were unchanged. A total of 8.36 billion shares worth P4.25 billion changed hands.

“Signals from Europe and the US remain mixed, befuddling investors on which way to go on their trades,” said Jun Calaycay of Accord Capital Equities Corp.

“Although Germany has put on ‘kind words’ for the crisis, and harsh ones for doomsayers, the reality of the present conditions have kept the forward outlook clouded,” Calaycay added.

The PSE index on Wednesday broke the trading range it had kept for a few weeks and the break below its support line might cause jitters when trades resume.

“Even bargain-hunters may take a longer time to place-in buy orders following this breach—more so, technical traders,” said Calaycay, adding that Thursday’s session may confirm if the 4,270 mark was a support or resistance level.

The PSEi looked headed for its next support of 4,200 as external problems could drag the stock market lower.

“Investors are advised to keep a level-head and avoid panicking during this challenging period,” said Prince Anthony Yeung of AB Capital Securities Inc.

“Stocks that have been battered should be kept an eye on with the goal of accumulation if their support levels hold,” said Yeung.

At the Philippine Dealing System, the peso closed at 43.220 against the US dollar, losing 24.50 centavos from Tuesday’s 42.975 finish.


Singapore shares opened higher on Thursday, with the benchmark Straits Times Index at 2,763.95 in early trade, up 0.90 percent, or 24.60 points.

Around 59 million shares exchanged hands.

Gainers beat losers 128 to 23.


The Stock Exchange of Thailand main index went down 8.71 points or 0.84 percent to close at 1,022.96 points at the end of trading session on Wednesday Afternoon. The trade value was 29.18 billion baht, with 3.62 billion shares traded.

The SET50 index ended at 711.34 points, down 5.53 points or 0.77 percent, with a total trade value of 22.58 billion baht.

The SET100 index fell 13.38 points or 0.86 percent to stand at 1,549.66 points, with a total turnover of 25.32 billion baht.

The SETHD index went down 0.89 points or 0.09 percent to stand at 993.47 points, with total trade value of 7.76 billion baht.

The MAI index went up 0.19 points or 0.07 percent to close at 290.51 points, with total transaction value of 416.21 billion baht.

Top five most active values were as follows;

BBL closed at 147.50 baht, down 1.00 baht (0.67 percent)

PTT closed at 312.00 baht, up 2.00 baht (0.65 percent)

SCB closed at 110.50 baht down 2.00 baht (1.78 percent)

IVL closed at 34.00 baht, down 1.25 baht (3.55 percent)

BANPU (XD) closed at 610.00 baht, down 12.00 baht (1.93 percent)


Shares on both national bourses slumped during yesterday's session, following an encouraging rally.

Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank yesterday forecast that Viet Nam's economic growth rate for this year might drop to 5.8 percent from 6.1 percent.

In addition, Minister of Finance Vuong Dinh Hue, in a document sent to the Ministry of Industry and Trade regarding tax and electricity rate proposals, said that electricity prices would be increased to cover operation costs.

"However, if electricity rates are increased, it will be really difficult to keep this year's inflation below 20 per cent," commented ACB Securities Co analyst Nguyen Duy Phong. On the HCM Stock Exchange, the VN-Index dropped 0.5 percent to close at 466.99 points. Losers outnumbered gainer by 138-107.

Although the southern bourse's index slid over several sessions, Maritime Bank Securities Co analyst Nguyen The Hung said that the VN-Index could hit 485 points.

The day's trade value increased 8 percent over Tuesday to nearly VND1.3 trillion (US$62.8 million), while volume rose by 13 million shares to 81.4 million.

Bluechips tumbled, the majority of the 10 leading shares by capitalisation having lost between 0.6-3.8 percent, with software giant FPT (FPT) losing the most although it announced a profit of more than VND1 trillion ($48.3 million) for the first eight months of this year.

However, insurer Bao Viet Holdings (BVH) was able to reach its ceiling price for the seventh consecutive session, closing at VND82,000. Food producer Masan Group (MSN) gained 2.7 per cent, PetroVietnam Finance (PVF) gained 2.6 percent while Sacombank (STB) edged up 0.7 per cent.

Telecommunications equipment provider Sacom (SAM) was the most-active code in HCM City, with 4.3 million shares changing hands. It closed up 4.1 percent at VND7,400. On the Ha Noi Stock Exchange, the HNX-Index dived 2.4 percent to conclude the session on 77.33 points.

Profit taking made trading volume increase to nearly 94.8 million shares, up 53.2 percent from Tuesday. Trading value also rose 42.6 percent to VND1.1 trillion ($53.1 million).

Kim Long Securities Co (KLS) saw the highest trading volume, with 10.2 million shares exchanged, though it slid 4.4 percent to VND12,600. Foreign investors shifted to be net sellers on both bourses, picking a combined net of VND132.3 billion ($6.4 million) worth of shares.



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AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More


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