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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs   21-22  November  2011

Asean Stock watch weekly 21-22 November 2011

Asean Stock watch weekly report (ending 18 Nov 2011)

Re-cap of the US Markets for the Week ended 18 November 2011

By Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.

Red’s Bull Trader Alert: The S&P failed to rise above 1,225 after a drop below it Thursday triggered broad market selling, and it is now setting up as a technical resistance mark.

Investors are trying to gauge how much of an impact the European crisis may have on the US economy, nevertheless, economic data for the United States is showing continued improvement.

A measure of future US economic activity rose more than expected in October, according to the Conference Board.

US Stocks: Wall Street posted its worst week for stocks in 2 months, investors are on the sidelines, as the market chopped around without direction Friday, The DJIA and S&P 500 were little changed and the NAS composite index declined a bit.

On the Day:
DJIA                11,796.16    +0.22%    11,768.98    11,854.81    11,755.82    16:04:50
S&P 500           1,215.65      -0.04%      1,216.19      1,223.51      1,211.36    16:19:45
NAS                  2,572.50      -0.60%      2,595.02      2,595.84      2,567.15    16:20:06

On the Week: the DJIA fell 2.9%, the S&P dropped 3.8% and the NAS declined 4%.

In the United States, there are doubts a congressional bipartisan committee, The Super Committee's" ability to come up with budget cuts and tax increases that the Congress can agree on next week.

Financial shares, recently among the most sensitive to EuroZone financial strains, rose Friday.

The S&P financial index finished + 0.5%. Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) shares edged up 0.6% to 14.21 but fell more than 13 on the week.

The Big Q is if the European Central Bank (ECB) will find a way to act as a lender of last resort in the manner of the US Federal Reserve. Speculation has grown the ECB could lend money to the International Monetary Fund to bail out some EuroZone members.

It is hard to imagine the ECB changing its role in here, but the political powerful's' to be have to be keenly aware of the consequences if this 2 yr old problem gets out of control to a level that it causes serious harm to the markets.

Volume and Breadth: the market saw light trade on Friday with 6.7-B/shrs traded on the NYSE, AMEX and NAS Friday, below the current daily average of 8-B/shrs. Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a ratio of about 13 to 10, and on the NAS decliners beat advancers 1,259 to 1,226.

The CRB Commodity Index was up solidly this morning, but faded with energy prices to end the day with a 0.7% loss.

Crude Oil prices had been up about 1% in early pit trade, but the energy component fell just after. It traded as low as 96.70 bbl before trimming its loss. Crude Oil settled the session at 97.41 per barrel with a 1.4% loss. Nat Gas prices closed pit trade at 3.31 per MMBtu for a 2.6% gainer after having been bid slightly higher in the early trading.

The precious metals: Gold prices spent the session holding on to a slight gain, finishing at 1724.50 oz for a 0.2% gainer.

Silver was more impressive in its performance. Prices advanced 2.9% to 32.47 oz.

US Treasuries ended the day on a down tone, but managed to hold onto solid gains for the week as renewed turmoil in Europe sparked a flight to safety. The big winner for the week was the 30-yr T- Bond as it saw its yield drop about 20 bps from its peak level Monday.

A rise in French, Italian, and Spanish yields set off a new wave of the concerns as countries at the core of the EuroZone are now seeing a significant rise in their cost of borrowing.

The Italian 10-yr yield climbed above the 7.00% mark before European Central Bank (ECB) buying dropped it back below that mark. Things eased up further on Friday and the Italian 10-yr yield finished the week at 6.62%.

The Spanish 10-yr yield ran above 6.80% following Thursday's auction, but it has also pulled back since then and finished the week at 6.31%.

In addition to concerns about Italy and Spain, ‘AAA' rated France now finds itself in the "cross hairs" of bond vigilantes as selling of French OATs ran its 10-yr yield as high as 3.80% before the ECB acted, and swiftly bought French government debt in an effort to bring down its yields. The French 10-yr yield closed the week out at 3.45%.  In the USA, the 10-yr yield was finally able to crack the 2.00% support level that has been in place for all of November. But, it bounced back above that level Friday to finish the week at 2.01%. A flight into the long bond dropped its yield below 3.00% and it managed to close out the week at 2.99%.  The yield curve flattened over the course of the week with the 2-10-yr spread tightening by about 17 bps. Next week will see the US Treasury sell $35-B in 2-yr Notes (Mon.), $35-B in 5-yr Notes (Tues.) and $39-B in 7-yr Notes (Weds.).

Economic data is fairly light and volume could be impacted by the shortened Thanksgiving Holiday week.

US Major Market Indexes Technical Analysis

Date                              Symbol          Price           Technical Analysis                  Support             Resistance
18 Nov 2011                    QQQ          55.65            Neutral (0.01)                      55.29                   55.86
18 Nov 2011                     DIA         118.05            Bullish (0.25)                        117.72                118.91
18 Nov 2011                     SPY         122.32            Neutral (0.07)                      118.57                122.76

The World Markets Snap Shot
Indexes Futures Currencies Bonds Industries Commodities

Index                                    Value              % Change            Open                High                 Low               Time
Americas Indexes
DJIA                                  11,796.16            +0.22%         11,768.98       11,854.81       11,755.82          16:04:50
S&P 500                             1,215.65             -0.04%           1,216.19          1,223.51         1,211.36          16:19:45
NAS                                    2,572.50             -0.60%           2,595.02          2,595.84         2,567.15          16:20:06

Europe, Middle East & Africa Indexes
                                                                         Value     % Change           Open              High             Low              Time

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR                              2,236.68      -0.27%       2,233.30         2,264.25      2,220.27      11:50:01
FTSE 100 Index                                               5,362.94      -1.11%       5,423.14         5,423.14      5,347.89      11:35:30
Deutsche Borse AG German Stock Index DAX  5,800.24      -0.85%       5,800.79         5,897.99      5,769.69      12:30:22

Asia-Pacific Indexes
Nikkei 225                                                        8,374.91      -1.23%       8,374.16          8,398.80     8,359.60      01:28:01
Hong Kong Hang Seng Index                         18,491.23      -1.73%     18,561.04        18,561.04   18,398.96      03:01:15
Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300                            2,606.50       -2.09%      2,643.67          2,646.21     2,601.18       02:01:27

Futures Index                                   Value           % Change       Open                High                Low               Time
Americas Futures
DJIA INDEX FUTURE Dec 11           11,768.00      +0.25%     11,745.00       11,856.00        11,700.00       16:09:03
S&P 500 FUTURE Dec 11                 1,213.50       - 0.11%      1,215.60         1,229.70          1,209.00        16:07:29
NAS 100 FUTURE Dec 11                 2,251.00        -0.76%      2,267.75         2,289.50          2,248.00        16:07:48

Europe, Middle East & Africa Futures
EURO STOXX 50 Dec 11                  2,240.00         0.00%       2,207.00        2,265.00           2,207.00        16:03:49
FTSE 100 IDX FUT Dec 11                5,348.50       -1.19%       5,363.50        5,414.00           5,333.00        15:59:51
DAX INDEX FUTURE Dec 11             5,820.00        -0.50%      5,758.00        5,904.00           5,755.00        16:03:49

Asia-Pacific Futures
NIKKEI 225 (OSE) Dec 11                8,410.00        0.00%       8,420.00         8,450.00           8,390.00    13:00:01
HANG SENG IDX FUT Nov 11         18,439.00       -2.30%     18,450.00       18,502.00         18,335.00    03:15:00

Currency             Value        Change        % Change           Time
EUR-USD           1.3518     +0.0060        +0.4458%        16:19:42
USD-JPY          76.9500     -0.0300          -0.0390%          16:19:06


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This year in Thailand-what next?

AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

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