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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs  6 May2013 

ASEAN Stock Exchange Preview

Singapore Stock Exchange Preview

The FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) ended -32.49 points lower or -0.95% lower to 3,369.90, taking the year-to-date performance to +6.40%.

The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index declined -0.54% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index declined -0.60%.

The top active stocks were Genting SP (-7.76%), Singtel (-3.05%), DBS (-0.69%), Kep Corp (-0.76%), and UOB (-0.91%).

Technical Outlook
Short Term:          Overbought
Intermediate Term:   Bullish
Long Term:           Bullish

STRAITS TIMES is currently 7.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend.  Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.  There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term.  Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .FTSTI at a relatively equal pace (neutral).  Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .FTSTI and have had this outlook for the last 23 periods.    

Stochastic Oscillator
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20).  The Stochastic Oscillator is 79.8635.  This is not an overbought or oversold reading.  The last signal was a sell  0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas.  The current value of the RSI is 62.46.  This is not a topping or bottoming area.  However, the RSI just crossed below 70 from a topping formation.  This is a bearish sign.  A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area.  The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.


Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas.  The current value of the CCI is 111.This is an overbought reading.  However, a signal isn't generated until the indicator crosses below 100.  The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.

MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line.  The last signal was a buy  6 period(s) ago.

On 5/3/2013, STRAITS TIMES closed below the upper band by 11.5%.
Bollinger Bands are 23.69% wider than normal.  The current width of the bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices

The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Basic Materials which gained +0.31%. The two biggest stocks of the Basic Materials Index are Geo Energy (+2.38%) and Midas Holdings (unchanged). The underperforming sector, FTSE ST Telecommunications, declined -2.67% with Singtel declining -3.05% and Starhub Ltd gaining +0.21%. The FTSE ST Real Estate Index declined -0.25%, FTSE ST Consumer Services Index declined -2.55% and the FTSE ST Utilities declined -0.33%.

The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were LYXOR CHINA H 10 (-1.27%), IS MSCI INDIA 100 (-1.38%) and SPDR GOLD SHARES (+1.41%).

The three most active Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by value were Ascendasreit (-1.12%), CapitaMall (+0.43%) and MapletreeGCC (-0.89%).

The most active index warrants by value today were HSI22400MBeCW130627 (-3.28%), HSI21800MBeCW130627 (unchanged) and HSI22200MBePW130627 (-0.79%).

The most active stock warrants by value today were UOB MB eCW130802 (-2.26%), DBS MB ePW130902 (+5.66%), and KepCorp MBeCW130902 (-3.91%).

*Please note the Real Estate, Consumer Services and Utilities sectors will be the focus of SGX My Gateway Educational events in 2Q13.

Jakarta Stock Exchange Preview

Technical Outlook
Short Term:          Neutral
Intermediate Term:   Bullish
Long Term:           Bullish

Jakarta Stock Exchange is currently 11.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend.  Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.  Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of Jakarta Stock Exchange at a relatively equal pace (neutral).  Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on Jakarta Stock Exchange and have had this outlook for the last 83 periods.    

Bollinger Bands are 3.49% wider than normal.  The current width of the bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.

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A big black candle occurred.  This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened.  If the candle appears when prices are "high," it may be the first sign of a top.  If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance.  Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.

During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.  During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Stochastic Oscillator
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20).  The Stochastic Oscillator is 39.0352.  This is not an overbought or oversold reading.  The last signal was a sell  1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas.  The current value of the RSI is 47.73.  This is not a topping or bottoming area.    A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area.  The last signal was a sell 21 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas.  The current value of the CCI is -147.This is an oversold reading.  However, a signal isn't generated until the indicator crosses above -100.  The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line.  The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Stock Exchange of Thailand Preview

Shayne Heffernan takes a look at trading this week in Thailand. Best Buys SSI, Royal Orchid, Furukawa

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

SET Index is currently 14.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .SETI at a relatively equal pace (neutral). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .SETI and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.

Bollinger Bands are 79.16% wider than normal. The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as compared to SET Index's normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility decreasing and prices entering (or remaining in) a trading range has increased for the near-term. The bands have been in this wide range for 5 period(s). The probability of prices consolidating into a less volatile trading range increases the longer the bands remain in this wide range.

Candlesticks
A big black candle occurred. This is bearish, as prices closed significantly lower than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are "high," it may be the first sign of a top. If it occurs when prices are confronting an overhead resistance area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or price resistance level), the long black candle adds credibility to the resistance. Similarly, if the candle appears as prices break below a support area, the long black candle confirms the failure of the support area.

Stochastic Oscillator
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 69.1404. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 57.89. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 29 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 79. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Vietnam Index Preview
Technical Outlook
Short Term:          Neutral
Intermediate Term:   Bearish
Long Term:           Bullish

   VN Index is currently 10.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend.  Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.  Our volume indicators reflect volume flowing into and out of .VNI at a relatively equal pace (neutral).  Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on .VNI and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.    

Candlesticks
An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle's real body completely contains the previous black candle's real body).  The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with VN Index).  It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.

If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend, it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top.  The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle's real body.

Bollinger Bands are 52.87% wider than normal.   The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as compared to VN Index's normal range.  Therefore, the probability of volatility decreasing and prices entering (or remaining in) a trading range has increased for the near-term.  The bands have been in this wide range for 5 period(s).  The probability of prices consolidating into a less volatile trading range increases the longer the bands remain in this wide range.

Stochastic Oscillator
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20).  The Stochastic Oscillator is 52.3825.  This is not an overbought or oversold reading.  The last signal was a  buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas.  The current value of the RSI is 44.19.  This is not a topping or bottoming area.    A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area.  The last signal was a sell 18 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas.  The current value of the CCI is -54.  This is not a topping or bottoming area.  The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line.  The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.



Shayne Heffernan Ph.D.
Economist/Hedge Fund Manager


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This year in Thailand-what next?

AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

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