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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs  31 May2013 

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The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday warned China to closely watch its rapidly expanding social financing, while lowering its economic growth forecast for the world's second-largest economy.

Amid weak and uncertain global conditions, the Chinese economy is expected to grow at around 7.75 percent this year, down from the IMF's April forecast of 8 percent, according to David Lipton, the fund's first deputy managing director.

"If growth were to slow sharply below this year's target, then on-budget fiscal stimulus should be used, focusing on measures that support household incomes and consumption, such as reductions in social contributions, subsidies to consumption, or targeted social safety net spending," Lipton said in Beijing.

The pace of the economy should pick up moderately in the second half of the year, as the recent credit expansion gains traction in line with a projected mild pick-up in the global economy, the IMF said in a statement released after its annual review of the economy and after discussions with Chinese senior economic officials.

A report released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development on Wednesday said that China will expand 8.4 percent in 2014 after registering a 7.8 percent GDP growth this year.

Lipton said China's economy faces important challenges and in particular, the rapid growth in total social financing - a broad measure of credit - raises concerns about the quality of investment and its impact on repayment capacity, especially since a fast-growing share of credit is flowing through less-well supervised parts of the financial system.

In terms of the main policy areas of the agenda, reining in social financing growth is a priority and will require further tightening of oversight as well as improved investor accountability for investment decisions, said the IMF.

According to the central bank data, total social financing - an index that covers all loans, bond issuance and stock sales - stood at 7.9 trillion yuan ($1.27 trillion) for the first four months, compared with nearly 4.9 trillion yuan during the same period of last year.

"Too fast credit expansion might not be sufficiently useful to China," said Lipton, adding that overdependence on investment expansion has affected the financial positions of local governments.

Including local government financing vehicles, an estimate of "augmented" general government debt has risen to nearly 50 percent of GDP, with the corresponding estimate of an "augmented" fiscal deficit on the order of 10 percent of GDP in 2012, said the monetary fund.

"While part of this deficit is financed through land sales, and augmented debt is still at a well-manageable level, it is important to gradually reduce the deficit over the medium term to ensure a robust and sustainable debt profile."

"The lack of transparency in the off-balance sheet debt of local governments adds uncertainty over potential contingent liabilities from unchecked investment. Moreover, growth in non-bank credit is close to that of booms seen elsewhere," said Tom Byrne, a senior vice-president at Moody's Investors Service.

The rating agency revised China's rating outlook to stable from positive on April 16. Lipton said the margins of safety are narrowing and a decisive impetus to reform is needed to contain vulnerabilities and move the economy to a more sustainable growth path.

Further liberalization of financial markets could make governments and private companies take efficiency more into account when they add leverage, he added.

Inflation is forecast to end the year at around 3 percent, and the external current account surplus is projected to remain broadly unchanged at around 2.5 percent of GDP, said the IMF.

It said the yuan is still considered to be moderately undervalued relative to a basket of currencies.

Increasing capital inflows have pushed up the exchange rate of the yuan in recent months. It has gained about 1.4 percent against the US dollar since April, exceeding its pace of appreciation throughout 2012.


The FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) ended -31.46 points lower or -0.93% lower to 3,336.01, taking the year-to-date performance to +5.33%.

The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index declined -1.95% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index declined -1.04%.

The top active stocks were DBS (-0.88%), Singtel (-1.56%), GLP (-3.16%), OCBC Bk (-1.21%), and Capitaland (-2.50%).

The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Health Care which gained +0.34%. The two biggest stocks of the Health Care Index are Biosensors International (+2.16%) and Raffles Medical Group (-0.30%). The underperforming sector, FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts, declined -2.73% with CapitaMall Trust declining -0.93% and Ascendas REIT  declining -3.24%. The FTSE ST Real Estate Index declined -2.30%, the FTSE ST Consumer Services declined -0.43% and the FTSE ST Utilities declined -0.43%.

The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were SPDR GOLD SHARES (+1.29%), IS MSCI INDIA 100 (+0.80%) and STI ETF (-0.89%).

The three most active Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by value were Ascendasreit (-3.24%), SuntecReit (-1.70%) and CapitaMall (-0.93%).

The most active index warrants by value today were HSI23000MBePW130627 (+1.74%), HSI22200MBePW130627 (+6.90%) and HSI22400MBePW130730 (+0.61%).

The most active stock warrants by value today were DBS MB eCW131001 (-7.41%), OCBC Bk MBeCW131101 (-12.38%), and SGX MB eCW131101 (-5.26%).

Tokyo stocks tumbled 5.15 percent, or 737.43 points, to 13,589.03 as jittery investors dumped shares following a sharp fall on Wall Street.

Hirokazu Kabeya, senior strategist at Daiwa Securities, said “investors still remain shaken-up” after the recent volatile trade in Tokyo, including a single-day loss of more than seven percent last week.

“They don’t see any indication of the downward trend coming to a halt,” he said.

In other markets, Sydney slipped 0.89 percent, or 44.0 points, to close at 4,930.7, while Seoul ended flat, edging down 1.10 points to 2,000.10.

Hong Kong lost 0.31 percent, or 70.62 points, to 22,484.31 and Shanghai slid 0.27 percent, or 6.27 points, to 2,317.75.

– Bangkok fell 1.27 percent, or 20.29 points, to close at 1,581.32.

Coal producer Banpu dropped 1.30 percent to 304 baht, and PTT Plc shed 1.75 percent to 337 baht.

– Wellington fell 0.40 percent, or 17.75 points, to 4,470.51.

Fletcher Building was down 0.24 percent at NZ$8.36, while Telecom Corp up 1.1 percent at NZ$2.28.

– Taipei fell 1.13 percent, or 94.61 points, to 8,243.29.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. was 0.90 percent lower at Tw$110.0 while Hon Hai Precision shed 1.40 percent at Tw$77.2.

– Jakarta ended down 1.37 percent, or 71.05 points, at 5,129.65.

Carmaker Astra International slid 2.08 percent to 7,050 rupiah, while palm oil producer Astra Agro Lestari fell 1.05 percent to 18,850 rupiah.

– Kuala Lumpur shares lost 0.48 percent, or 8.55 points, to close at 1,774.92.

Hong Leong Financial Group fell 3.2 percent to 15.16 ringgit while Maxis shed 2.5 percent to end at 6.70. gained 1.3 percent to 4.77 ringgit.

– Manila plunged 3.81 percent, or 275.22 points, to 6,953.35.

Ayala Corp. fell 3.2 percent to 645 pesos and SM Investments Corp. was down 4.3 percent at 1,119 pesos.

– Singapore dropped 0.93 percent, or 31.46 points, to 3,336.01.

United Overseas Bank shed 0.38 percent to Sg$21.20 and real estate developer Capitaland slipped 2.50 percent to Sg$3.51.

– Mumbai rose 0.34 percent, or 67.76, points to 20,215.4, rising ahead of key local GDP data due on Friday.

Vehicle and farm equipment maker Mahindra and Mahindra rose 4.61 percent to 1,004.6 rupees while rival Tata Motors rose 4.31 percent to 316.9 rupees

Shayne Heffernan Ph.D.

Economist/Hedge Fund Manager/Snr Partner

Knightsbridge Law Co Ltd
Heffernan Group of Companies
Thomson Reuters
Chinese Society of Economists
American Economic Society
Linda Johnson, Business Development Director - Private Client Group, Heffernan Capital Management
3 Raffles Place #07-01
Bharat Building Singapore 048617
Tel: +65 6329 6408 Fax: +65 6329 9699
Email :
New York 347 5th Avenue, Suite 1402-508 NY, NY 10016


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This year in Thailand-what next?

AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More






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