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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs  21 May2013 

ASEAN Market Preview

Singapore

The FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) ended +4.93 points higher or +0.14% higher to 3,454.23, taking the year-to-date performance to +9.07%.

The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index gained +0.18% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index gained +0.53%.

The top active stocks were JSH 500US$ (-1.62%), Singtel (+1.24%), Kep Corp (+1.28%), DBS (+0.29%), and UOB (+0.36%).

The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Utilities which gained +1.24%. The two biggest stocks of the Utilities Index are Gallant Venture (+1.56%) and Hyflux (-0.72%). The underperforming sector, FTSE ST Industrials, declined -0.74% with Jardine Matheson Holdings declining -1.95% and Jardine Strategic Holdings declining -1.62%. The FTSE ST Real Estate Index gained +0.36% and the FTSE ST Consumer Services gained +0.12%.

The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were IS MSCI INDIA 100 (+0.31%), LYXOR CHINA H 10 (+2.10%) and SPDR GOLD SHARES (-1.73%).

The three most active Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by value were CapitaMall (unchanged), Kep REIT (+0.31%) and Ascendasreit (-1.47%).

The most active index warrants by value today were HSI23000MBePW130627 (-28.17%), HSI23400UBeCW130627 (+37.26%) and HSI23200MBeCW130627 (+24.05%).

The most active stock warrants by value today were DBS MB eCW131001 (+0.59%), KepCorp MBeCW131001 (+10.38%), and DBS MB ePW130909 (-6.78%).

Malaysia

The FBM KLCI index gained 7.99 points or 0.45% on Monday. The Finance Index increased 0.54% to 16839.6 points, the Properties Index up 5.24% to 1489.21 points and the Plantation Index rose 0.85% to 8299.44 points. The market traded within a range of 10.10 points between an intra-day high of 1781.05 and a low of 1770.95 during the session.

Actively traded stocks include LUSTER, DAYA, IRIS, NICORP, CLIQ-WA, LUSTER-WA, THHEAVY, TRINITY, MAS and KSTAR. Trading volume increased to 2954.48 mil shares worth RM2817.79 mil as compared to Friday’s 2114.95 mil shares worth RM2072.25 mil.

Leading Movers were UEMLAND (+34 sen to RM3.51), PETDAG (+32 sen to RM25.44), PETGAS (+22 sen to RM22.26), UMW (+20 sen to RM14.20) and IOICORP (+15 sen to RM5.29). Lagging Movers were GENTING (-4 sen to RM10.72), AMMB (-4 sen to RM7.20), YTL (-3 sen to RM1.71), SIME (-2 sen to RM9.48) and HLBANK (-2 sen to RM14.28). Market breadth was positive with 845 gainers as compared to 163 losers.

The KLCI started the week positively by closing at 1777.2 points. The investors’ sentiments were buoyant following the bullish markets in both US and Europe, with Dow and S&P 500 hitting fresh highs. The barometer index was lifted by the overwhelming UEMLand, along with the Petronas-linked stocks, namely the PetGas and PetDagangan.

Thailand

The Stock Exchange of Thailand main index went up 15.44 points, or 0.95%, to close at 1,643.40 points at the end of trading session this afternoon. The trade value was 57.89 billion baht, with 10.29 billion shares traded.

The SET50 index ended at 1,092.27 points, up 12.49 points, or 1.16%, with a total trade value of 33.18 billion baht.

The SET100 index rose 26.12 points, or 1.08%, to stand at 2,436.81 points, with a total turnover of 43.40 billion baht.

The SETHD index went up 18.94 points, or 1.50%, to stand at 1,280.10 points, with total trade value of 10.02 billion baht.

The MAI index dropped 0.95 point, or 0.19%, to close at 489.21 points, with total transaction value of 1.70 billion baht.

Top five most active values were as follows;

INTUCH stood at 95.75 baht, down 1.50 baht (1.54%)
TRUE stood at 10.40 baht, up 0.65 baht (6.67%)
ITD stood at 9.05 baht, up 0.30 baht (3.43%)
MLINK stood at 5.60 baht, up 0.10 baht (1.82%)
PTT stood at 343.00 baht, up 8.00 baht (2.39%)

Indonesia

State plantation company Perkebunan Nusantara X, the country’s largest sugar producer, reported that its profit more than doubled last year amid cost cuts in sugar production.

Net income at PTPN X rose to Rp 376.9 billion ($36 million) in 2012 from Rp 155.2 billion a year earlier, while revenue was littled changed at Rp 2.15 trillion from

Rp 2.12 trillion in 2011, the company said in a prospectus published in Investor Daily on Monday.

The company’s cost of goods sold — including those for sugar, tobacco, bobbin and hospital services — dropped 12 percent to Rp 1.5 trillion.

The cost of sugar sold alone decreased 10 percent to Rp 856.2 billion, as the company updated machinery in its plants.

PTPN X produced 494,000 tons of sugar in 2012, up from 2011’s 446,000 tons. This year, PTPN X aims to produce 538,000 tons of sugar.

This year PTPN X seeks to branch out into bioethanol, produced from vinasse, a liquid by-product of sugar production. The company has been in talks with state-owned energy firm Pertamina, seeking an additional Rp 300 billion in revenue in exchange for 30,000 kiloliters of bioethanol each year.

The sugar producer is currently completing construction on a Rp 461.2 billion bioethanol plant , which covers 6.5 hectares in Gempolkrep, around 30 kilometers west of Surabaya. It is expected to begin production in October.

PTPN X also plans to sell Rp 800 billion worth of bonds by the end of the first half of 2013, in order to revitalize three sugar mills in the Bone, Caming and Takalar districts of South Sulawesi.

The three mills were previously owned by other state plantation companies. The government diverted ownership to PTPN X and tasked the company with revitalizing the mills. PTPN X operates 11 sugar mills spread across East Java.

The company relies on farmers to supply its sugar cane. Of the sugar cane fields that supply the company, 95 percent are owned by outside entities, and only 5 percent owned directly by PTPN X.

Philippines

Barclays has raised its 2013 growth forecast for the Philippines as it expects the economy to post one of the fastest growth rates among emerging markets in Asia.

In one of its latest reports, Barclays said the Philippines was now seen to grow by 6.2 percent this year and 6.3 percent in 2014.

The international financial services firm earlier projected that the Philippine economy would grow by 5.9 percent this year.

Its new 2013 forecast for the Philippines is now within the government’s official growth target of between 6 and 7 percent.

Barclays said the Philippines would likely post the third-fastest growth rate among emerging economies in Asia, behind China and Indonesia.

It expects China to grow by 7.9 percent this year and 8.1 percent next year. Indonesia, on the other hand, is seen expanding by 6.3 and 6.4 percent in the same years.

The upgraded growth forecast for the Philippines came amid improved business sentiment on the Philippines following the country’s attainment of investment grades this year.

On March 27, Fitch Ratings gave the Philippines its first investment grade from an international credit-rating agency, by lifting its score for the country by a notch from BB+ to BBB-, which is the minimum investment grade.

Standard & Poor’s followed on May 2, giving the country its second investment grade from an international credit watchdog.

The two credit-rating firms cited improvements in the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals for their decisions.

These fundamentals include the declining outstanding debt of the government in proportion to the country’s gross domestic product, the buildup in foreign-exchange reserves, robust economic growth rate, benign inflation and a stable banking sector.

Meantime, Barclays said some central banks in emerging markets in Asia may be poised to ease their monetary policies within the short term to ensure their economies maintain a robust pace of growth despite problems confronting industrialized countries.

“Admittedly, not all emerging economies have slowed but the general climate has engendered some further easing [of monetary policy],” Barclays said.

Its statement is consistent with prevailing views that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas may further cut the interest rate on special deposit accounts, even as it now stands at a record low of 2 percent.

Barclays said that despite favorable economic performance of the emerging markets, measures to counter the drag caused by the lackluster demand for imports by industrialized countries were necessary.

“While stronger nominal GDP (gross domestic product) expansion should help to allay deflationary concerns, it is vital that countries seek additional ways to deliver faster real demand expansion,” Barclays said.


Tokyo stocks were up 1.47 percent, or 222.69 points, to 15,360.81, and Sydney gained 0.54 percent, or 28.2 points, to close at 5,209.0.

Hong Kong ended 1.78 percent higher, or 410.35 points, to end at 23,493.03, as Shanghai closed up 0.75 percent, or 17.12 points, to 2,299.99, and Seoul finished flat at 0.22 percent, or 4.38 points, to 1,982.43.

– Wellington rose 0.82 points to 4,598.66.

Air New Zealand was up 0.99 percent to NZ$1.535, and Fletcher Building fell 1.90 percent at NZ$8.28.

– Taipei was up 0.11 percent, or 8.86 points, to 8,377.05.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. was 0.44 percent higher at Tw$114.0 while leading smartphone maker HTC gained 2.46 percent to Tw$292.0

– Manila fell 0.06 percent, or 4.49 points, to 7,275.38.

Megaworld Corp. fell 3.70 percent to 3.90 pesos, while Alliance Global Group Inc. dropped 1.35 percent to 25.65 pesos.

– Bangkok gained 0.95 percent or 15.44 points to 1,643.40.

Bangkok Bank lost 0.45 percent to 221 baht, while PTT rose 2.39 percent to 343 baht.

– Jakarta ended up 69.29 points, or 1.35 percent, at 5,214.98.

Astra International rose 2.13 percent to 7,200 rupiah, while Indo-Rama Synthetics lost 3.70 percent to 1,300 rupiah.

– Singapore rose 0.14 percent, or 4.93 points, to close at 3,454.23.

Singapore Telecom finished 1.24 percent higher at Sg$4.07 and container shipping firm Neptune Orient Lines added 1.8 percent to finish the day at Sg$1.13.

– Kuala Lumpur shares rose 7.99 points, or 0.45 percent, to 1,777.15.

CIMB Group gained 1.2 percent to 8.40 ringgit, while Petronas Gas climbed 1.0 percent to 22.26. Astro Malaysia Holdings shed 0.3 percent to 3.14 ringgit.

– Mumbai finished down 0.31 percent, or 62.14 points, at 20,223.98.

State-run oil exploration giant ONGC dropped 2.09 percent to 332.90 rupees while private bank ICICI slipped 1.62 percent to 1,209.65 rupees.



Shayne Heffernan Ph.D.

Economist/Hedge Fund Manager/Snr Partner

Knightsbridge Law Co Ltd
Heffernan Group of Companies
Thomson Reuters
 
Member
Chinese Society of Economists
American Economic Society
 
Linda Johnson, Business Development Director - Private Client Group, Heffernan Capital Management
Sales@Heffcap.com
 
Singapore
3 Raffles Place #07-01
Bharat Building Singapore 048617
Tel: +65 6329 6408 Fax: +65 6329 9699
Email : info@heffcap.com
 
 
New York 347 5th Avenue, Suite 1402-508 NY, NY 10016


 

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ASEAN  ANALYSIS

This year in Thailand-what next?

AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More

 

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