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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs  20 May2013 

The Stock Exchange of Thailand Preview

Shayne Heffernan takes a look at the week ahead on The Stock Exchange of Thailand


Technical Outlook
Short Term:          Overbought
Intermediate Term:   Bullish
Long Term:           Bullish


Bollinger Bands are 50.18% wider than normal.   The large width of the bands suggest high volatility as compared to SET Index's normal range.  Therefore, the probability of volatility decreasing and prices entering (or remaining in) a trading range has increased for the near-term.  The bands have been in this wide range for 14 period(s).  The probability of prices consolidating into a less volatile trading range increases the longer the bands remain in this wide range.


Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20).  The Stochastic Oscillator is 62.3306.  This is not an overbought or oversold reading.  The last signal was a sell  1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas.  The current value of the RSI is 64.82.  This is not a topping or bottoming area.    A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area.  The last signal was a sell 38 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas.  The current value of the CCI is 69.  This is not a topping or bottoming area.  The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line.  The last signal was a buy  18 period(s) ago.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand is currently 16.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend.  Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.  There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future.  Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into .SETI (mildly bullish).  Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on .SETI and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.

Singapore Dollar Weekly Preview
Shayne Heffernan takes a look at Singapore Dollar trading for the week ahead.
The Singapore dollar is undervalued next to the USD for now, a break above 1.26 is where I will recommence selling USD and buying SGD
Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish


Singapore Dollar is currently 2.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into SGD (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on SGD and have had this outlook for the last 3 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that SGD is currently in an overbought condition.

Stochastic Oscillator
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 92.2727. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.


Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 73.74. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 78 period(s) ago.


Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 191.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.


MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.


Thailand: Thai Baht Outlook
Shayne Heffernan takes a look at the Thai Baht trading for the week ahead.


Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
The Thai Baht is currently 1.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect moderate flows of volume into THB= (mildly bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on The Thai Baht and have had this outlook for the last 13 periods.

The Thai Baht price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.


An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.


If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with FOREX THB=), it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.


Stochastic Oscillator
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 78.9855. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.


Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 64.46. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.


Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 114.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.


MACD
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 16 period(s) ago.




Shayne Heffernan Ph.D.

Economist/Hedge Fund Manager/Snr Partner

Knightsbridge Law Co Ltd
Heffernan Group of Companies
Thomson Reuters
 
Member
Chinese Society of Economists
American Economic Society
 
Linda Johnson, Business Development Director - Private Client Group, Heffernan Capital Management
Sales@Heffcap.com
 
Singapore
3 Raffles Place #07-01
Bharat Building Singapore 048617
Tel: +65 6329 6408 Fax: +65 6329 9699
Email : info@heffcap.com
 
 
New York 347 5th Avenue, Suite 1402-508 NY, NY 10016


 

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ASEAN  ANALYSIS

This year in Thailand-what next?

AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More

 

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