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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs 21 March 2013 

ASEAN Market Outlook

ASEAN Markets will remain choppy and the likelihood of an EU meltdown is growing. In the USA the economy remains weak and the Fed continues a record level of money printing. Japan is adding to the potential of a financial crisis by also printing trillions in yen.

This can not be maintained and there will be a sharp and savage market correction in the near future, in ASEAN you need to be hedged and review your portfolio to make sure it is a value driven inflation proof insurance policy. If you are interested in assistance creating such a portfolio contact us,

Good News from China

Home / Business / Economy
Confidence boost for first-quarter growth
Updated: 2013-03-19 23:11
By Chen Jia ( China Daily)
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PBOC surveys of entrepreneurs, bankers paint positive outlooks

China's entrepreneurs and bankers are showing strong confidence on economic growth in the first quarter, based on rebounding market demand and a stronger need for credit, which may fuel inflation in coming months, according to two separate reports from the country's central bank released on Tuesday.

Confidence boost for first-quarter growth

An index gauging entrepreneurs'confidence on macroeconomic development has been boosted to 68 percent in the first quarter from 60.4 percent in the previous three months, compared with 59.2 in the third quarter of 2012, said the People's Bank of China.

The economic confidence snapshot was based on a survey involving 5,700 entrepreneurs across the industrial sector.

The confidence index has now increased for three consecutive quarters, but it was still 3.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

The central bank survey also suggested a strong recovery in industrial operations, with an index reading for that rising to 62.6 percent during the first three months from 61.8 percent in the last quarter of 2012, mainly because of a rise in domestic orders.

However, export orders remained down for the fourth straight quarter since April 2012, according to the PBOC.

In a separate PBOC survey, 3,100 bank executives also expressed high confidence in future economic growth, with an index reading of 72.2 percent during the January-March period, sharply up from 55.1 percent in the last quarter.

The central bank said about 70 percent of the bankers surveyed said they expected economic development to remain stable, while 25.4 percent forecast a more gloomy outlook.

The figures were in line with economists'predictions that in the first quarter China's GDP growth may accelerate to above 8 percent from 7.9 percent during the period from October to December.

Same Old News from the USA

The Fed said to support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will continue to take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases as well as the extent of progress toward its economic objectives.

Sydney fell 0.40 percent, or 20.1 points, to 4,967.3 while Seoul lost 0.97 percent, or 19.15 points, to 1,959.41.

Bargain hunters moved in to send Hong Kong up 0.97 percent, or 214.58 points, to 22,256.44, while Shanghai surged 2.66 percent, or 59.94 points, to 2,317.37.

Tokyo was closed for a public holiday.

– Taipei fell 0.52 percent, or 40.44 points, to 7,798.03.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. fell 1.2 percent to Tw$98.8 while smartphone maker HTC was 1.0 percent lower at Tw$246.5.

– Manila closed 0.10 percent lower, shedding 6.63 points to 6,419.62.

Metropolitan Bank eased 1.40 percent to 113 pesos and Alliance Global fell 3.73 percent to 19.88 pesos, while SM Investments added 1.19 percent.

– Wellington closed 0.10 percent higher, adding 4.39 points to 4,349.43.

Air New Zealand was up 2.75 percent at NZ$1.50, Sky Television rose 1.48 percent to N$5.49 and Telecom was down 1.1 percent at NZ$2.26.

– Singapore shed 0.63 percent, or 20.73 points, to close at 3,248.40.

Singtel was down 2.25 percent to Sg$3.48 while real estate developer Capitaland gained 0.57 percent to Sg$3.53.

– Kuala Lumpur shares gained 6.08 points, or 0.37 percent, to close at 1,632.54.

UEM Land Holdings surged 6 percent to 2.64 ringgit while Tenaga Nasional was up 2 percent to end at 7.14. IOI Corp lost 1.7 to close at 4.62.

Jakarta closed higher 8.87 points, or 0.18 percent, at 4,831.50.

– Cement producer Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa rose 3.35 percent to 23,150.00 rupiah, telecoms firm Telekomunikasi Indonesia gained 1.42 percent to 10,700 rupiah, while Timah lost two percent to 1,470 rupiah.

Bangkok fell 1.57 percent, or 24.58 points, to 1,543.67.

– Bangchak Petroleum dropped 6.99 percent to 33.25 baht, while power giant Electricity Generating Public Co. added 1.61 percent to 158 baht.

– Mumbai fell 0.65 percent, or 123.91 points, to at 18,884.19.

Bharti Airtel fell 4.18 percent to 281.15 rupees, while State Bank of India fell 3.87 percent to 2,117.35 rupees.

Shayne Heffernan Ph.D.
Economist/Hedge Fund Manager

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This year in Thailand-what next?

AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More






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