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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs 16 March 2013 

Shayne Heffernan on the Thai Baht

As I said on the 20th of January 2013 the Thai Baht should see 28.50 to the US Dollar this year.

Thailand: Thai Baht on Target for 28.50

For all of 2012, the baht strengthened about 3 percent.

We remain convinced that the Thai Economy is set to become one of the regions fastest growing in ASEAN, long term the Baht should continue to strengthen.

At 28.50 we estimate we may see the BoT make an adjustment to rates and attempt to ease the Baht, but for now they have made the right choice in keeping the rate unchanged.

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said he began expressing his concern about the appreciation when the baht stood at 31 to the greenback, the level the government wants the currency to remain at, but still it continues to strengthen.

I do feel the BoT is taking the prudent course for now, Japan has attempted to steal some of Asia’s growth with an aggressive, and in my opinion flawed attack on the Yen. There are many like myself that believe the outrageous actions of Japan’s new prime minister are doomed to failure and the BoJ will be hard pressed to deliver on his promises.

28.50 is the level that would prompt the BoT to take action as a move lower than that would create economic issues in Thailand. Certainly 25 Baht to the Dollar could trigger a minor financial crisis.

Neither the Government of Thailand or the BoT can be held responsible for the shift, in fact they have had a surprisingly measured and balanced approach to the Thai economy, the problem is 2 fold, the Thai economy is in a high growth cycle and the Thai Baht has been hit by the bad behavior of other central banks like Japan, Europe and the USA.

The Thai Government and the Bank of Thailand are on the right course, Japan, Europe and the USA are all headed for serious economic hardship as a result if their participation in money printing and currency manipulation.

Shayne Heffernan Ph.D.
Economist/Hedge Fund Manager

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This year in Thailand-what next?

AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More






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