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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs   9  March 2011

ASEAN to Return to Record Highs

Shayne Heffernan

A drop in oil prices has helped world exchanges rally, and Asean will follow them higher today.

Oil prices pulled back, with Brent crude down nearly 2 per cent at $US112.82 a barrel after Kuwait's oil minister said OPEC was in discussions to increase production.

Turmoil in Libya and unrest in the region have driven up oil prices to 2 1/2-year highs recently.

Bangkok will trade higher today and the exchange still represents good value.

Shayne Heffernan best buys are PTT and IVL and AMANAH is worth looking at.


PTT Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based company engaged in the in upstream petroleum, downstream petroleum, coal business and other related businesses. Its business activities include the exploration for, the development and production of,natural gas, condensate and crude oil through subsidiaries; the procurement,transmission, processing, marketing and distribution of natural gas and gas products; the marketing of refined products through various distribution channelsincluding commercial, retail, reseller and international markets, and the import and export of crude oil, condensate, petroleum feedstock and petrochemical products. As of Dec. 31, 2009, the Company was operating in 24 countries, as well as it has 17 subsidiaries.


Shares in Thai polyester producer Indorama Ventures Pcl (IVL) rose more than 5 percent on Tuesday amid optimism over its earnings this year, in part due to higher production capacity.


Amanah Leasing Public Company Limited provides hire purchase loans and leasing loans to individuals and juristic persons in Thailand. It offers loan services for passenger cars and commercial cars focusing on Japanese cars and low-priced European cars. The company also provides car loan marketing services for alliances and dealers; car license plate pledging services; loan services for refinancing from other financial institutions; and after-sale services, such as car insurance,insurance policy renewal, group car insurance, and car tax payment services. In addition, it offers car rental service; used car sale agency service; and debt management, follow up, and cars repossessing services. The company was formerly known as Nava Leasing Public Company Limited and changed its name to Amanah Leasing Public Company Limited in October 2010. Amanah Leasing Public Company Limited was founded in 1992 and is based in Bangkok,

Yesterday in Bangkok, the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composite index on Tuesday gained 15.63 points or 1.56 percent to close at 1,018.57 points. The marketvalue was 44.51 billion baht, with 5.86 billion shares traded.

Top five most active values were as follows;

IVL closed at 49.50 baht, up by 3.50 or 7.611 percent.

CPF closed at 24.50 baht, up by 1.20 or 5.151 percent.

PTT closed at 348.00 baht, up by 6.00 or 1.751 percent.

PTTEP closed at 186.50 baht, up by 4.50 or 2.471 percent.

PTL closed at 22.60 baht, up by 0.60 or 2.731 percent.

Bursa Malaysia should build a good buffer over the 1500 mark today.

Shayne Heffernan best buys are TANCO, BJFOOD, PCHEM


Tanco Holdings Berhad (THB) is a Malaysia-based company engaged in investment holding and the provision of management services. Through its subsidiaries, THB operates in four segments: property development/management; resorts and club operation/management; construction, and investment holding. THB developed Bandar Country Homes and Palm Springs Resort City. As of Dec. 31, 2009, THB's direct subsidiaries were Palm Springs Leisure Sdn. Bhd., Palm Springs Resort Management Berhad, Pentapeak Properties Sdn. Bhd., Point Resort Club Sdn. Bhd., Popular Elegance (M) Sdn. Bhd., Tanco Properties Management Services Sdn. Bhd., Tanco Development Sdn. Bhd., Wheels, Sails & Wings SuperClub Bhd., World Vacation Ownership Sdn. Bhd., Medan Melati Sdn. Bhd., Cool-Wheels SuperClub Bhd. and Platinum Residence Sdn. Bhd.


Berjaya Food Berhad, through its subsidiary, Berjaya Roasters (M) Sdn Bhd, engages in the development and operation of Kenny Rogers ROASTERS (KRR) chain of restaurants in Malaysia. The company operates three types KRR mid-casual dining restaurants,including Non-traditional restaurant, Express Facility restaurant, and Traditional restaurant. As of January 19, 2011, it operated 51 owned and 13 franchised restaurants. The company was founded in 1994 and is based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

Berjaya Food Berhad is a subsidiary of Berjaya Group Berhad.


PETRONAS Chemicals Group Berhad (PCG) is the leading integrated petrochemicals producer in Malaysia and one of the largest in Southeast Asia. We are involved primarily in manufacturing, marketing and selling a diversified range of petrochemical products, including olefins, polymers, fertilisers, methanol and other basic chemicals and derivative products.

Established as part of the PETRONAS Group in order to maximise value from Malaysia's ample natural gas resources, PCG has over 25 years of experience in the petrochemicals industry. Today, PCG has got a production capacity of over 11 million mtpa at its integrated petrochemical complexes in eastern Peninsular Malaysia (Kerteh and Gebeng), as well as manufacturing complexes in Gurun, Bintulu, Labuan and Vung Tau, Vietnam.

In Kuala Lumpur yesterday the index gained 1.73 points or 0.11% on Tuesday. The Finance Index increased 0.32% to 13635.61 points, the Properties Index up 1.90 percent to 1067.2 points and the Plantation Index rose 0.24% to 7741.71 points.The market traded within a range of 9.84 points between an intra-day high of 1525.01 and a low of 1515.17 during the session.

Most Active HWGB, HWGB-WB, KBUNAI, TANCO, BJFOOD, PCHEM, IRIS, SAAG, PERISAI and SCOMI. Trading volume increased to 1168.32 mil shares worth RM1747.86 mil as compared to Monday's 714.80 mil shares worth RM1097.33 mil.

The Winners were GENTING (+12 sen to RM10.38), PETCHEM (+11 sen to RM6.45), MAYBANK(+3 sen to RM8.80), PBBANK (+4 sen to RM13.12) and CIMB (+2 sen to RM8.01).

The Losers were AXIATA (-6 sen to RM4.90), SIME (-3 sen to RM9.10), PETDAG (-14 sen to RM14.16), PPB (-6 sen to RM17.20) and PETGAS (-4 sen to RM11.70).

Singapore will see a positive day as the market sentiment improves globally and locally. Local investors will get a lift from Hutchison Port Holdings Trust initial public offering on the Singapore Exchange, the company will raise as much as US$6.4 billion (S$8 billion) in a move that makes it the largest IPO in Singapore ever, topping SingTel’s S$4-billion listing in 1993.

Singapore Exchange Limited is great buying here according to Shayne Heffernan.

Singapore Exchange Ltd Upgraded to has been upgraded to a Strong Buy with a 2012 price target of $10.

Singapore Exchange Limited (SGX) is Asia-Pacific’s first demutualised and integrated securities and derivatives exchange.

SGX was inaugurated on 1 December 1999, following the merger of two established and well-respected financial institutions – the Stock Exchange of Singapore (SES) and the Singapore International Monetary Exchange (SIMEX).

On 23 November 2000, SGX became the first exchange in Asia-Pacific to be listed via a public offer and a private placement. Listed on our own bourse, the SGX stock is a component of benchmark indices such as the MSCI Singapore Free Index and the Straits Times Index.

Home to Singapore’s leading listed companies, SGX is also at the forefront of exchanges globally in attracting international issuers and is rapidly emerging as Asia’s offshore risk management centre for international derivatives.

Valuation Ratios

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
P/E Ratio (TTM) 27.77 11.42 20.30 17.76
P/E High – Last 5 Yrs. 24.87 103.42 142.44 89.76
P/E Low – Last 5 Yrs. 15.43 11.49 106.04 12.28
Beta 1.24 1.17 1.21 1.32
Price to Sales (TTM) 13.00 4.07 11.24 2.21
Price to Book (MRQ) 11.62 0.84 1.18 2.99
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 14.01 0.74 1.41 5.39
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 25.72 9.03 16.57 68.54
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 36.69 7.36 4.68 20.80
% Owned Institutions - - - -



Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Dividend Yield 3.50 1.64 1.77 1.59
Dividend Yield – 5 Year Avg. 4.12 0.73 1.61 2.48
Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 1.92 75.75 8.17 -5.22
Payout Ratio(TTM) 96.90 13.54 16.28 42.56


Growth Rates

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 14.29 3.19 17.67 10.18
Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 5.37 4.56 12.14 10.28
Sales – 5 Yr. Growth Rate 18.42 43.82 18.61 7.34
EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 3.28 -1.21 72.18 77.87
EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago -3.14 - - -
EPS – 5 Yr. Growth Rate 24.38 32.63 9.52 4.53
Capital Spending – 5 Yr. Growth Rate 23.54 24.33 10.54 3.43


Historical Surprises
Sales and Profit Figures in Singapore Dollar (SGD)
Earnings and Dividend Figures in Singapore Dollar (SGD)
Estimates vs Actual Estimate Actual Difference Surprise %
SALES (in millions)

Quarter Ending Dec-10 166.40 172.25 5.85 3.51
Quarter Ending Jun-10 165.40 162.33 3.07 1.86
Quarter Ending Dec-09 145.90 150.72 4.82 3.30
Quarter Ending Sep-09 181.00 173.40 7.60 4.20
Quarter Ending Jun-09 186.00 170.05 15.95 8.58
Earnings (per share)
Quarter Ending Dec-10 7.70 7.60 0.10 1.30
Quarter Ending Jun-10 8.00 7.40 0.60 7.50
Quarter Ending Dec-09 10.00 6.70 3.30 33.00
Quarter Ending Sep-09 9.60 8.85 0.75 7.81
Quarter Ending Jun-09 9.00 8.51 0.49 5.44

In Singapore yesterday the market closed 1.22 per cent higher, The Straits Times Index rose 37.32 points to end at 3,103.84.

SingTel rose 2.4 per cent to S$3.00, Singapore Airlines was up 1.63 per cent at S$13.72, while Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp rose 2.05 percent to S$9.48. Sembcorp Industries rose 1.8 per cent to S$5.21, Sembcorp Marine climbed 4.6 percent to S$5.89, while Keppel Corp ended 3.4 percent higher at S$12.10.Golden Agri-Resources rose 0.7 percent to S$0.695, while CapitaMalls Asia declined 0.6 percent to S$1.74.

Volume was 1.21 billion shares. Gainers led losers 295 to 154.

Stocks in Manila, Philippines will rally today on better international signals and the return of foreign risk capital.

Shayne Heffernan's best buys today are Aboitiz Power, Cebu Air, Metrobank Aboitiz Power.

Aboitiz Power Corporation (AP) is a holding company, engaged in the power generation and distribution. It operates through two segments: power generation and distribution. The Generation is done by is subsidiaries of which five have Hydro Generation, one Geothermal Generation, four Oilfired Generation and one Coalfired Generation. The distributions is done by Visayan Electric Co Inc, Davao Light and Power Co Inc, Cotabato Light and Power Co, San Fernando Electric Light and Power Co. Inc, Subic Enerzone Corp, Mactan Enerzone Corp and Balamban Enerzone Corp.


Valuation Ratios

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
P/E Ratio (TTM) 10.86 6.37 7.62 17.76
P/E High – Last 5 Yrs. 11.18 80.75 71.26 89.76
P/E Low – Last 5 Yrs. 6.45 16.17 15.49 12.28
Beta 0.74 0.43 0.46 1.32
Price to Sales (TTM) 4.01 1.86 1.86 2.21
Price to Book (MRQ) 4.37 0.52 0.58 2.99
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 4.54 0.56 0.66 5.39
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 9.46 4.50 5.53 68.54
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 6.05 10.88 10.48 20.80
% Owned Institutions - - - -



Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Dividend Yield 1.00 2.21 2.21 1.59
Dividend Yield – 5 Year Avg. -- 1.53 1.65 2.48
Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate -10.76 4.52 6.24 -5.22
Payout Ratio(TTM) 10.82 6.77 9.82 42.56


Growth Rates

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 84.90 12.30 15.63 10.18
Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 229.42 9.15 9.77 10.28
Sales – 5 Yr. Growth Rate 28.60 9.34 9.51 7.34
EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 164.99 106.40 140.03 77.87
EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 311.22 - - -
EPS – 5 Yr. Growth Rate 18.97 5.56 5.69 4.53
Capital Spending – 5 Yr. Growth Rate 51.52 22.44 24.84 3.43

Cebu Air

Cebu Air, Inc. (CEB) is a Philippines-based company. The Company is engaged in aviation industry. In terms of domestic passengers carried during the year ended on December 31, 2010, according to The Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB), it had a share of 48.7 percent. As of June 30, 2010, it operated a network serving 51 domestic routes and 21 international routes with a total of 1,746 scheduled weekly flights under the trade name Cebu Pacific Air. CEB operates a fleet of 29 aircraft, 11 Airbus A320, 10 Airbus 319 and eight ATR 72-500. It operates the Airbus aircraft on domestic and international routes and the ATR 72-500 on domestic routes, including destinations with airport limitations. International destinations comprises Brunei, Beijing, Incheon, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Bangkok.

Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company

Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company is a Philippines-based bank. The Company principal business activities involve deposit-taking and lending, trade finance, remittances, treasury, investment banking and thrift banking. It provides investment banking services through First Metro Investment Corporation (FMIC) and retail banking through Philippine Savings Bank (PSBank). The Bank is also a major participant in the foreign exchange market in the Philippines of over 800 local and international branches, offices and agencies. The Company provides services, such as deposit products, loans and trade finance, domestic and foreign fund transfers, treasury, foreign exchange, trading and remittances and trust services.


Valuation Ratios

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
P/E Ratio (TTM) 15.02 16.71 20.30 17.76
P/E High – Last 5 Yrs. 15.52 31.67 142.44 89.76
P/E Low – Last 5 Yrs. 9.43 9.84 106.04 12.28
Beta 1.28 1.25 1.21 1.32
Price to Sales (TTM) 1.71 2.89 11.24 2.21
Price to Book (MRQ) 1.36 0.97 1.18 2.99
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 1.60 1.25 1.41 5.39
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 12.19 20.25 16.57 68.54
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 1.88 0.93 4.68 20.80
% Owned Institutions - - - -



Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Dividend Yield 0.99 1.76 1.77 1.59
Dividend Yield – 5 Year Avg. 1.84 1.79 1.61 2.48
Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 4.56 8.63 8.17 -5.22
Payout Ratio(TTM) 14.56 10.59 16.28 42.56


Yesterday in Manila the Philippine Stock Exchange index added 12.39 points or 0.32 percent to finish at 3,898.87.

Trading was mixed across sectors, however, as many investors still tempted to lock up gains whenever the index breached the 3,900 levels. Buying also focused on selected issues as the market remained wary of geopolitical risks that were pushing up global oil prices.

Despite the overall index gain, the 46 advancers were thus edged out by 78 decliners while 45 stocks were unchanged.

The investment firms, mining/oil and property counters firmed up while the financial, industrial and services counters traded in the red. Value turnover surged to P5.38 billion from the previous day's P3.52 billion.

The Winners were Aboitiz Equity Ventures, DMCI Holdings, Semirara Mining, SM Investments, SM Prime, ICTSI, EDC, Union Bank, Megaworld, Southeast Asia Cement, Ayala Land and BPI. The Losers were Aboitiz Power, Cebu Air, Metrobank, PLDT, AGI, San Miguel Corp., FPH and First Gen.

Jakarta looks set for more gains today after a strong showing on US markets and a fall in oil prices.

PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food looks like good buying and Shayne Heffernan has a price target of 1000RP on this stock.

PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk is an Indonesia-based food company. It is engaged in the production and marketing of noodles, including dry noodles and instant noodles. The Company’s subsidiaries are engaged in biscuit and candy industry, palm oil plantations and electric power plant. Its product lines include Kremezz, Xprezzo, Hahamie, Mikita Kaldu Ayam, Mikita Ayam Pedas and Mikita Goreng. Its subsidiaries include PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera and PT Poly Meditra Indonesia. The company’s production facility is located in Sragen, Central Java, Indonesia.

Valuation Ratios

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
P/E Ratio (TTM) 30.10 20.32 16.66 17.76
P/E High – Last 5 Yrs. 7,540.54 6,783.22 1,675.37 89.76
P/E Low – Last 5 Yrs. 15.33 15.22 14.65 12.28
Beta 0.32 0.60 0.57 1.32
Price to Sales (TTM) 2.21 1.24 1.82 2.21
Price to Book (MRQ) 2.78 6.02 2.54 2.99
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 2.78 5.89 10.57 5.39
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 13.83 11.50 10.47 68.54
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 11.55 11.54 9.50 20.80

Malindo Feedmill is another good buy PT Malindo Feedmill Tbk is an Indonesia-based company engaged in the agribusiness sector, including the production and sale of animal feed and breeding and distribution of day-old-chick. Its subsidiaries are PT Bibit Indonesia, PT Prima Fajar and PT Leong Ayamsatu Primadona. The Company's farms are located in Purwakarta, Wonosari, Probolinggo, Pasuruan and Lumajang.

Valuation Ratios

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
P/E Ratio (TTM) 11.22 9.53 16.66 17.76
P/E High – Last 5 Yrs. 19.58 71.82 1,675.37 89.76
P/E Low – Last 5 Yrs. 4.02 15.13 14.65 12.28
Beta -0.18 0.88 0.57 1.32
Price to Sales (TTM) 0.77 1.43 1.82 2.21
Price to Book (MRQ) 6.89 1.24 2.54 2.99
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 6.89 1.60 10.57 5.39
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 9.06 4.64 10.47 68.54
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 59.90 4.42 9.50 20.80
% Owned Institutions - - - -



Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Dividend Yield 1.93 1.61 1.84 1.59
Dividend Yield – 5 Year Avg. -- 1.24 1.25 2.48
Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate -- 1.67 8.98 -5.22
Payout Ratio(TTM) 14.44 14.40 8,539.41 42.56


Growth Rates

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 11.16 10.48 6.79 10.18
Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 0.82 7.66 6.76 10.28
Sales – 5 Yr. Growth Rate 33.69 15.53 11.52 7.34
EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 99.30 54.73 18.05 77.87
EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 224.802 - - -
EPS – 5 Yr. Growth Rate 73.30 9.07 7.78 4.53
Capital Spending – 5 Yr. Growth Rate 34.01 38.32 8.40 3.43



In Jakarta Yesterday the JCI rose 18.60 points, or 0.5 percent, to close at 3,580.31, its fourth day of gains. About 3.2 billion shares worth Rp 4.3 trillion ($490 million) changed hands. Decliners beat gainers 138 to 76.

Medco Energi Internasional, Indonesia’s biggest listed oil company, rose 1.7 percent to Rp 2,925. Crude oil in New York fell 0.5 percent to $105.44, retreating from a 29-month high on news that OPEC might boost oil output.

Summarecon Agung, a property developer, gained 3 percent to Rp 1,030. President director Johanes Mardjuki said the company allocated up to Rp 600 billion in internal cash to acquire 300 hectares of land in Jakarta and Bandung, Investor Daily Indonesia reported on Tuesday.

International Nickel Indonesia, the nation’s largest producer of the metal, lost 3.4 percent to Rp 4,975. Nickel for three-month delivery sank 4.6 percent to $27,475 per metric ton as the market closed in London on Monday.

The rupiah was inched down to 8,788 to the US dollar on Tuesday, from 8,787 on the day before, on speculation oil prices will stoke inflation.



Shayne Heffernan brings more than 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over US$500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of US$15billion. He has managed and overseen start-ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.


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This year in Thailand-what next?

04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More

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