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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs   28  March 2011

Asean Equity Watch

Shayne Heffernan

This week we bid farewell to Q1 2011 and welcome in Q2 and markets remain strong despite the Japan and Middle East issues. The VIX volatility index is back down near levels not seen since before the Egyptian unrest began stirring the oil markets.

Wall St is heading back to 2011 highs but on a comparative basis emerging market shares, losers for much of Q1, are just breaking even for 2011. Wall St will end the first quarter of 2011 in positive territory, extending the previous quarter's 8.4 percent rise.

But the excess divergence in global equity performance is set to rebalance. U.S. stocks have been the main driver for the global advance, outperforming their peers in Europe, Japan and the emerging markets, in Q2 this gap will close. Europe, Japan and the emerging markets stocks offer cheaper valuations and stand well below their own 10-year historical average.

Investors looking for long term growth should be looking to be invested in Europe, Japan and the Emerging markets in the coming week, for those that do not have direct access to foreign markets there are an abundance of ETF's that can be bought on the NYSE that offer good exposure to the emerging economies of the world.

Global X FTSE Norway 30 ETF NYSE:NORW


BLDRS Emerging Markets 50 ADR Index(ETF) NASDAQ:ADRE

iShares MSCI Japan Index (ETF) NYSE:EWJ

SPDR DJ International Real Estate ETF NYSE:RWX

iShares MSCI Singapore Index Fund (ETF) NYSE:EWS

These ETF's are some of our favorites at HCM.

While those in the first world are struggling under the government debt built up by recovering from a recession, the Emerging second and third World nations are growing at a rapid pace. The International Monetary Fund-projected 4.7 percent, global growth is set to rise well above the roughly 3.5 percent long-term average.

Major companies in the first world are not struggling as much as the man in the street, many of the Fortune 500 companies recognized the need to build income from emerging markets and have done so at a faster pace than ever before, in fact for some of these corporate giants Emerging markets are their future.

The growth has so much momentum now not even the flock of black swan events could slow things down, Japan's triple disaster of earthquakes, tsunami and a nuclear crisis, or a mass revolt across the Arab world that would set geopolitics on its head and drive up the oil price, nor even the politicking of the EU over Portugal could stop corporate gains in Q1.

This week we will be focused on buying quality companies in Norway, Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Japan as well as Wall St.

Food and Agriculture remains undervalued in all of the world's markets, Food and Water are the next big things and no portfolio would be complete without a good balance of companies in this sector.



Shayne Heffernan brings more than 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over US$500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of US$15billion. He has managed and overseen start-ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.


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This year in Thailand-what next?

AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More


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