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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs   15  June  2011

Asean Stock Watch- June 15



The US markets rallied as investors in a round of corporate acquisitions allowing the Dow to post gains for only the second time this year even as Standard & Poor’s slashed Greece’s credit rating to CCC, two notches above default.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.06 points to 11,952.97.


The country’s key stock index rose on Tuesday, halting a four-day decline, as shares advanced in line with gains in emerging-market equities after better-than-expected industrial production in China eased concerns its economy was slowing.

The Jakarta Composite Index rose 24.52 points, or 0.65 percent, to 3,773.27 as consumer goods and agriculture led the charge.

Trading volume was moderate as 7.14 billion shares worth Rp 4.9 trillion ($573.3 million) changed hands. Gainers beat decliners 127 by 88. Foreign investors were net buyers, purchasing Rp 1.79 trillion more in shares than they sold. On Monday, they were net sellers of Rp 55 billion.

“The JCI had a technical rebound after declining for several days in a row last week and Monday,” M. Ridwan Novayanto, an analyst at Bumiputera Capital, said on Tuesday.

He said negative sentiment last week over US growth prospects was countered by good news from China, encouraging investors to buy assets in emerging markets.

Ridwan said there was no fundamental change in domestic macroeconomic conditions, including inflation, which he predicted to reach around 6 to 6.5 percent, close to the central bank’s upper estimate of 6 percent.

Shares in retailers gained 1.9 percent on Tuesday, while agriculture stocks rose 1.4 percent, miscellaneous industries were up 1.5 percent and manufacturing up 1.3 percent.

Among the best performers in the finance sector, Bank Mandiri rose 0.7 percent and Bank Rakyat Indonesia gained 0.8 percent. Bank stocks were boosted as the Deposit Insurance Agency (LPS) said on Tuesday that it would keep its guaranteed rate at 7.25 percent for rupiah deposits and 2.75 percent for foreign currency deposits over the next four months.

The rupiah was little changed at Rp 8,535 to the US dollar at the close on Tuesday, from Rp 8,540 on Monday.


Share prices were higher on Bursa Malaysia in early trading Wednesday, as investors confined their interest on key blue chips led by Tenaga Nasional Bhd, dealers said.

After 27 minutes of trading, the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) rose 4.51 points to 1,553.02, after opening 0.16 of a point lower at 1,548.35.

The Finance Index gained 7.34 points to 14,570.24, the Plantation Index earned 2.68 points to 7,866.97 and the Industrial Index added 0.44 of a point to 2,763.82. The FBM Emas Index improved 25.63 points to 10,698.24, the FBM Ace rose 20.41 points to 4,227.82 and the FBMT100 was 25.271 points higher at 10,454.45.

HwangDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd, in its research note, said market sentiments in regional market would likely improve with the rebound of the Wall Street last night.

"The benchmark FBM KLCI will probably bounce up too, possibly overcoming the support-turned-resistance level of 1,550 on the chart," said the research house.

Gainers led losers by 176 to 71 while 172 counters were unchanged, 1,071 untraded and 21 others suspended.

Trading volume stood at 98.687 million shares worth RM103.779 million.

Actives, Systech rose 12.5 sen to 34.5 sen, AsiaEP edged up one sen to five sen and KUB Malaysia added five sen to 74.5 sen.

Top gainers, Petronas Dagangan gained 26 sen to RM16.26, AEON Credit Service and Paramount Corporation jumped 18 sen each to RM5.08 and RM5.97, respectively.

Among heavyweights, Tenaga rose 2.424 per cent or 16 sen to RM6.76 on the back of news that the national utility company secured an operation and maintenance agreement with Laraib Energy Ltd of Pakistan.

Others, Maybank and CIMB edged up one sen each to RM8.74 and RM8.42, respectively, Petronas Chemicals rose three sen to RM7.09 while Sime Darby was unchanged at RM9.17.

The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives was traded slightly higher Wednesday morning on the back of better underlying cash market.

At 9.52am, June 2011 rose 3.5 points easier to 1,548.5, July 2011 and Sept 2011 added three points to 1,548.5 and 1,548, respectively, while Dec 2011 was untraded.

Turnover stood at 1,929 lots while open interest totalled 24,213 contracts.

Meanwhile, the underlying benchmark FBM KLCI rose 4.42 points to 1,552.93.


Philippine share prices on Tuesday fell further as an impending monetary tightening and concerns of a global economic slowdown continue to heighten risk aversion among investors.

At the Philippine Stock Exchange, the composite index fell 31.27 points, or 0.75 percent to 4,140.27, down for the seventh time in eight sessions. The broader all-shares index lost 20.61 points, or 0.70 percent to 2,926.01. Decliners severely outnumbered advancers, 101 to 32, while 41 issues were unchanged. A total of 2.17 billion stocks worth P4.71 billion changed hands.

“Somehow investors are just staying on the sidelines ahead of the monetary meeting on Thursday,” said Astro del Castillo, managing director at First Grade Holdings. “External factors are also being taken into consideration which is taking the market down,” del Castillo added.

Asian markets also brushed aside the inflation data from China, which reached a 33-month high.

From a technical standpoint, the local stock market may continue to struggle in the coming days after breaking its 4,200 support level on Monday, triggering further selling overall.

“Certain index components are also in danger of breaking their support, which would add to the downward pressure,” said Prince Anthony Yeung of AB Capital Securities Inc., citing index heavyweights Ayala Land Inc., Bank of the Philippine Islands, Banco de Oro Unibank Inc. and Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co.

However, analysts are not discounting a possible technical rebound within the week. “The market is currently undergoing a difficult period, but the medium to long term outlook remains positive,” said Yeung.

Support is at the 4,100 level and resistance at the 4,200 mark, del Castillo said. The peso continued to slide against the dollar as investors remained on edge amid the worsening Greek debt crisis, pushing them to run off emerging currencies.

At the Philippine Dealing System, the peso shed 3 centavos to close at 43.36 to a dollar from 43.33 the previous trading.

The dollar-peso pair opened at 43.39 and moved to a high of 43.42 and a low of 43.31. Total trading volume surged to $1.137 billion on Tuesday from $860.67 million the previous day.

Traders expect Asian currencies to have a bias on the bid within the week given the volatility of the euro and a bounce of the US dollar across the board.

Thus, they expect the pair to trade within a 43 to 43.60 range for the rest of week.


Singapore shares opened higher on Wednesday, with the benchmark Straits Times Index at 3,071 in early trade, up 0.45 percent, or 13.61 points.

Around 54.8 million shares exchanged hands.


The Stock Exchange of Thailand main index went up 19.39 points or 1.91 to close at 1,034.92 points at the end of trading session on Tuesday afternoon. The trade value was 20.56 billion baht.

The SET50 index ended at 724.12 points, up 15.36 points or 2.17 percent, with a total trade value of 14.22 billion baht.

The SET100 index rose 32.52 points or 2.11 percent to stand at 1,576.17 points, with a total turnover of 16.65 billion baht.

The MAI index went up 2.74 points or 0.94 percent to close at 295.38 points, with total transaction value of 1.72 billion baht.

Top five most active values were as follows;

PTT          closed at   339.00 baht, up 8.00 baht (2.42 percent) ADVANC    closed at    98.75 baht, up 2.00 baht (2.07 percent) BBL          closed at   154.00 baht, up 1.50 baht (0.98 percent) KBANK      closed at   114.00 baht, up 3.00 baht (2.70 percent) SCB          closed at   106.00 baht, up 2.50 baht (2.42 percent) Vietnam

Investment continued to flow into the Hanoi Stock Exchange Tuesday, lifting the HNX-Index by more than 2.24 percent by the end of the session to a close of 80.87 points, while slumping blue chips on the HCM City Stock Exchange dragged the VN-Index down by over half-a-percent.

The value and volume of trades in Ha Noi continued to climb from previous sessions, reaching VND749.6 billion (US$36.4 million) on a volume of nearly 70 million shares. Advancers outnumbered decliners by 258-47.

Trading was active in shares viewed as attractive to speculative investors, including Kim Long Securities Co (KLS), which became the most-active share nationwide with nearly 6.6 million shares changing hands. Trading was also heavy in shares of VNDirect Securities (VND) and PetroVietnam Construction (PVX).

On the HCM City Stock Exchange, value soared by 33 percent from Friday's session to VND887.3 billion ($43 million) and volume rose by 40 percent to 57.6 million shares. While 76 codes hit their ceiling prices, gaining the daily limit of 5 per cent, most of these were penny shares or mid caps without a heavy influence on calculation of the VN-Index.

Blue chips retreated, meanwhile, with seven of the 10 leading shares by capitalisation declining, including insurer Bao Viet Holdings (BVH), down 5 per cent; PetroVietnam Finance (PVF), down 3.6 percent; food processing conglomerate Masan Group (MSN), down 3 percent; Vietinbank (CTG), down 2.5 percent; and Phu My Fertilisers (DPM), developer Hoang Anh Gia Lai Co (HAG) and steelmaker Hoa Phat Group (HPG) all off by less than 1 percent.

Of these leading shares, only those of real estate developer Vincom (VIC) advanced to the ceiling price.

Shares of Saigon Securities Inc (SSI), the most-active share on the HCM City market, with 2.46 million traded, closed up 1.5 percent to VND20,700 (about $1) per share. Analysts of PetroVietnam Securities Co said trading began strongly but that demand weakened as the VN-Index was headed to 460 points, the landmark it failed to gain last week.

"After two successive weeks of increases, many shares have almost regained their values before the downtrend," they said. With little good economic news, there remained no solid basis for a sustainable recovery of the market, they added.


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This year in Thailand-what next?

AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More


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