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||Asean Affairs 28 January 2013
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Strong data from China will help underpin the markets in Asia but Japan remains a concern.
Provinces across China delivered stronger economic growth in the final quarter of 2012, according to the latest GDP figures from local governments.
But experts have warned the growth could be halted if local structural issues are not addressed.
Of 18 regions to release their annual GDP figures so far, 16 have beaten the national economic growth level, which slowed to 7.8 percent, the slowest since 1999.
National figures are not necessarily a compilation of local data.
In Japan the Government is attempting to push the Yen to 100 to 1 against the USD and this has created a bubble in the Nikkei, as the Yen approaches 100 buy the Yen and Sell the Nikkei, should that happen there will be some downward pressure on the markets in Asia, this is not the time to be heavily invested, review your portfolio and make sure it is as safe as possible should a major correction occur, the same philosophy should be applied to USA, Equity and Commodity positions.
Asian currencies are a good buy and should make up part of your portfolio, buy them as they drift off this week.
While I am not overly bearish on the markets, I am very concerned about the economic policies being deployed by Japan, Europe and the USA. Continuing high debt, increasing taxes and not investing in infrastructure projects are, to me, a check list of thing not to do given the current economic climate.
Earnings have exceeded expectations, the housing and labor markets have strengthened, lawmakers in Washington no longer seem to be the roadblock that they were for most of 2012, and money has returned to stock funds again., but remember, The Fed is pumping money in to the market to create a sense of security, that seems to be working, but whats coming are new taxes from Obama, continued Euro Politics and a looming currency war.
Right now I am looking at SSI, Olam, TRTH,AAPL, UOB, DBS, Silver, Copper, Oil. I did not like the F&N deal and I think Thai Bev paid too much for the company and will pay the price for that error.
Bumi is an interesting one, trying to time an entry as the control shifts back to the Bakrie family.
I like Palm oil stocks, not all but some.
Shayne Heffernan Ph.D.
Economist/Hedge Fund Manager
Live Trading News
Heffernan Capital Management
Chinese Society of Economists
American Economic Society
Linda Johnson, Business Development Director - Private Client Group, Heffernan Capital Management
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