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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs 22 January 2013

ASEAN Market Preview

China growth levels will remain about the same in 2013 but inflation is likely to rebound moderately, according to economists at the government's leading think tank.

China GDP growth will stay at 2012 levels, about 7.8 percent, and the Consumer Price Index, a main gauge of inflation, may go up from 2.6 percent in 2012 to 4 percent, said Yu Bin, the director of macroeconomic research at the State Council Development Research Center.

Fixed-asset investment, which is seen as the most powerful driver of the world's second-largest economy, may continue to face downward pressure, amid restrictions on raising property prices.

The National Bureau of Statistics reported on Friday that GDP growth was 7.8 percent in 2012, a 13-year low. It registered 9.3 percent in 2011.

Mr. Tevin Vongvanich , the President and CEO of PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited or PTTEP revealed the Capital Expenditure and Operating Expenditure for the Company and its subsidiaries for the five-year period from 2013 to 2017 will be approximately USD 24,671 billion. The majority of investment will be used to develop PTTEP's organic growth projects in Thailand and aboard. The planned expenditure is shown in the chart.
Unit: USD Million

                                    2013      2014      2015     2016     2017    2013-2017
Capital Expenditure          3,949     3,134       2,962     2,312     2,410     14,767
Operating Expenditure     1,860     1,851       1,837     1,984     2,372       9,904
Total Expenditure            5,809     4,985       4,799     4,296     4,782     24,671

The investment plan has not yet included the investment expenditure to support new venture opportunities.

USD 5,809 million of PTTEP's expenditure in 2013 will be used for many projects in the following activities:

Producing activities:to maintain plateau production with major projects such as Arthit project, Bongkot project, S1 project, Contract 4 project and MTJDA-B17 project.

Development activities:to increase production through new projects with major projects include PTTEP Australasia project (Montara field) which is expected to start-up within the first quarter in 2013, Zawtika project in Myanmar is expected to produce by the beginning of 2014, Algeria 433a & 416b project will be start-up within 2014, Canada Oil Sands KKD project (the expansion of Leismer and Corner) is expected to produce by 2016 and the Mozambique Rovuma Offshore Area 1 project.

Exploration activities:to find additional potential petroleum resources with major projects comprise Myanmar M3 & M11 project, Algeria Hassi Bir Rekaiz project , and Exploration projects in Australia, Mozambique and Kenya.

The expected average petroleum sales volumes per day based on existing projects for the years 2013 - 2017 are as follows:

Unit: Thousand Barrel of Oil Equivalent per day

                                                               2013    2014    2015     2016     2017
Expected average petroleum sales volume       310       340       335        325       339

"From the success of exploration activities and acquisition of PTTEP in the last few years, these help PTTEP ensure its petroleum potential to be growth base in the long run. Investment plan are in line with our main strategy to develop PTTEP's organic growth projects to maximize the production volume, to serve the rising of energy demand as well as emphasize exploration plans to increase petroleum potentials with the investment cost control" Mr. Tevin added.

At present, PTTEP has invested in 44 petroleum exploration and production projects in Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Oman, Algeria, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mozambique and Kenya as well as to invest in 5 related businesses.

Norway's Seadrill and SapuraKencana Petroleum Bhd have extended the validity period for the non-binding agreement to integrate Seadrill's tenders rig business into SapuraKencana.

Seadrill said in a statement posted on its website on Monday the extension of the validity period to Feb 8, 2013 was to finalise the due diligence and negotiations for the terms of the sale agreement and related transaction agreement.
The deal was announced on Nov 5 last year.

Keppel Reit on Monday posted a distribution per unit (DPU) of 1.97 Singapore cents for the fourth quarter ended Dec 31, 40.7 per cent higher year on year.

Its DPU rose as net property income (NPI) surged 84.7 per cent to S$32.8 million, helped by the acquisition of Ocean Financial Centre in December 2011.

Keppel Reit achieved a distribution yield of 6 per cent for the quarter, based on its unit closing price of S$1.295 on Dec 31.

Indonesia’s flag carrier, Garuda Indonesia, is planning to issue new shares under a non-pre-emptive rights issue scheme this year as it seeks funds to finance its capital expenditure, said Handrito Hardjono, the airline’s finance director.

“A non-pre-emptive rights issue will be executed in either the first or second quarter this year,” Handrito said on Thursday.

The finance director noted the new share offering would be equivalent to 10 percent of the total enlarged capital. He added that Garuda is yet to determine the amount of capital raised from the limited offerings.

The airline also plans to issue dollar-denominated and rupiah-denominated obligations this year, each amounting to $100 million, said Handrito.

Yesterday in Asia
Tokyo’s Nikkei, which hit a 33-month high Friday, fell 1.52 percent, shedding 165.56 points to 10,747.74. Sydney closed up 0.13 percent, or 6.3 points, at 4,777.5.

Seoul ended flat, dipping 0.99 points to 1,986.86. Hong Kong was also barely changed, edging down 10.87 points to 23,590.91.

Chinese shares closed up 0.48 percent, extending Friday’s gains after Beijing released data showing the economy grew faster than expected last year. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 11.15 points to 2,328.22 on turnover of 113.0 billion yuan ($18.2 billion).

Policymakers at Japan’s central bank on Monday began a two-day meeting that markets widely expect will see them adopt a two percent inflation target and unveil more monetary easing.

– Singapore closed up 0.31 percent, or 10.10 points, at 3,221.32.

DBS Bank gained 0.14 percent to Sg$14.40 and Fraser and Neave, the subject of a takeover tussle between Thai and Indonesian tycoons, gained 1.67 percent to Sg$9.74, well above the highest offer of Sg$9.55 a share.

– Taipei eased 0.10 percent, or 7.95 points, to 7,724.92.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. was 0.99 percent lower and leading integrated circuits design house MediaTek gained 2.43 percent to Tw$316.5.

– Manila added 0.53 percent, or 32.49 points, to 6,171.70.

Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) rose 0.53 percent, or 32.49 points, on Monday to close at 6,171.70 points, a fresh record high.

The index also tested the 6,200 level as it reached a new intraday trading high of 6,193.25 points. The All-Shares index was up 0.38 percent, as all subindices, except the industrials counter, ended the day in the green.

The growth was led by the services sector, which added 2.15 percent after Philippine Long Distance Telephone Co. (TEL) rose 3.21 percent.

The telco was the day’s most-actively traded share, and its rise on Monday helped it regain its status as the most valuable company in the country with a market capitalization of P604.96 billion—ahead of SM Investments Corp.’s P602.42 billion. SM Investments shares rose 1.34 percent to close at P980 each.

Brokerage firm Accord Capital said a new proposal by United States House Republicans to increase the debt ceiling for the world’s largest economy provided optimism in the local market.

Trading volume was at 2.93 billion shares, changing hands at P6.14 billion. The day’s 88 advancers outnumbered 69 decliners, while 51 issues were unchanged.

– Wellington rose 0.50 percent, or 21.00 points, to 4,185.18.

Contact Energy was up 0.58 percent at NZ$5.19, Telecom added 1.07 percent to NZ$2.37 and Fletcher Building gained 1.64 percent to NZ$9.30.

– Jakarta fell 0.57 percent, or 25.51 points, to 4,439.97.

Palm oil firm Sinar Mas Agro Resources & Technology rose 3.08 percent to 6,700 rupiah and cigarette producer H.M. Sampoerna jumped 6.6 percent to 63,000 rupiah, while retailer Ramayana Lestari Sentosa dropped 2.52 percent to 1,160 rupiah.

– Kuala Lumpur tumbled 2.43 percent, or 40.81 points, to 1,635.63.

Among the 30 component linked stocks, Axiata fell 34 sen to RM6.30, CIMB lost 34 sen to RM7.24, DiGi declined 21 sen to RM4.93.

Among the key regional markets, Japan's Nikkei 225 was 1.52% lower at 10,747.74, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index declined 0.05% to 23,590.91, Shanghai's Composite Index gained 0.48% to 2,328.22.

Taiwan's Taiex shed 0.10% to 7,724.92, South Korea's Kospi inched down 0.07% to 1,989.28 and Singapore's Straits Times Index increased 0.35% to 3,222.44.

US light crude oil shed 44 cents to USD95.12, Brent was 27 cents lower at USD111.62. Spot gold increased USD5.37 to USD1,689.67, while the Ringgit weakened 0.0248 against the USD at 3.0359.

Crude palm oil for third-month futures increased RM16 to RM2,416.

– Bangkok climbed 0.42 percent, or 6.04 points, to 1,440.48.
Telecoms giant True Corp. soared 8.93 percent to 6.10 baht while industrial group Loxley surged 7.55 percent to 5.70 baht.

– Mumbai rose 0.31 percent, or 62.78 points, to 20,101.82 points.

Reliance Industries jumped 2.35 percent to 920.05 rupees, while ITC gained 1.25 percent to end at 290.65 rupees.

Shayne Heffernan Ph.D.
Economist/Hedge Fund Manager

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This year in Thailand-what next?

AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More






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