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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs 14 January 2013

ASEAN Stock Market Week Ahead

Worries about the protracted fiscal cliff negotiations drove the markets in the weeks before the ultimate January 2 resolution, but fear of the debt ceiling fight has yet to command investors' attention to the same extent.

The agreement was likely part of the reason for a rebound in flows to stocks. U.S.-based stock mutual funds gained $7.53 billion after the cliff resolution in the week ending January 9, the most in a week since May 2001, according to Thomson Reuters' Lipper.

Markets are unlikely to move on debt ceiling news unless prominent lawmakers signal that they are taking a surprising position in the debate.

The deal in Washington to avert the cliff set up another debt battle, which will play out in coming months alongside spending debates. But this alarm has been sounded before.

Official data suggests China's economy will pick up in 2013, as the global economy is stabilizing and government measures and reforms have come into play, analysts said.

The government announced Thursday that exports gained 14.1 percent in December from one year earlier, up from November's unexpectedly weak 2.9-percent rise. The value of imports rose 6 percent year on year last month, improving from November, when there was no growth.

Combined with other strengthening indicators revealed last month, including industrial profits and output figures for November and a preliminary HSBC reading on December's manufacturing activity, the figures have made many hopeful for an economic turnaround.

China's import volume recovered in October and remained robust through the fourth quarter, indicative of a further recovery of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth, said Royal Bank of Scotland's chief China economist Louis Kuijs.

The country's economic growth is likely to accelerate to 8.5 percent this year from around 7.8 percent in 2012, said Lian Ping, chief economist at the Bank of Communications.

Change on day
Market Current Prev Close Pct Move
TR SE Asia Index* 428.05 426.27 +0.42
Singapore 3216.50 3226.25 -0.30
Kuala Lumpur 1682.70 1684.57 -0.11
Bangkok 1412.06 1405.99 +0.43
Jakarta 4305.91 4317.37 -0.27
Manila 6051.75 6018.57 +0.55
Ho Chi Minh 462.69 460.12 +0.56

Change on year
Market Current End prev yr Pct Move
TR SE Asia Index* 428.05 424.10 +0.93
Singapore 3216.50 3167.08 +1.56
Kuala Lumpur 1682.70 1688.95 -0.37
Bangkok 1412.06 1391.93 +1.45
Jakarta 4305.91 4316.69 -0.25
Manila 6051.75 5812.73 +4.11
Ho Chi Minh 462.69 413.73 +11.83

Shayne Heffernan Ph.D.
Economist/Hedge Fund Manager

Live Trading News
Thomson Reuters
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Linda Johnson, Business Development Director - Private Client Group, Heffernan Capital Management
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Bharat Building Singapore 048617
Tel: +65 6329 6408 Fax: +65 6329 9699
Email :
New York 347 5th Avenue, Suite 1402-508 NY, NY 10016


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This year in Thailand-what next?

AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More






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