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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs   26 January 2011

ASEAN to Continue Higher

Shayne Heffernan

The rally began yesterday in Asia and despite a flat USA session overnight it looks set to continue again today.

Shayne Heffernan Best Buys are Axiata, Genting, PTT, PLDT, Petgas

Thailand is a standout opportunity again today as foreign investors sell stocks, spooked by political rhetoric from PAD and UDD, the smart money knows that PAD and UDD can only maintain a limited impact on the outlook in Thailand.

Singapore, JP Morgan NYSE:JPM, Keppel Corp

Andrew Creber, Head of Business Singapore at JPMorgan Asset Management, said: “…in Singapore, people believed the appreciation of their portfolio would be higher versus Hong Kong.” Overall, the survey showed that 44 percent of respondents plan to be more aggressive in their investment strategy over the next six months, while 45 percent say they will make no change in their strategy.

In Singapore on the day shares closed lower on Tuesday, with the benchmark Straits Times Index at 3,181.15, down 0.14 per cent, or 4.61 points.

About 1.8 billion shares exchanged hands.

Losers beat gainers 361 to 126.

A JPMorgan Investor Confidence survey of retail investors in Singapore showed they are more bullish on the outlook for the local stock market in the next six months than their Hong Kong counterparts.

The JPMorgan Investor Confidence survey, also showed that 80 percent of the respondents expect the Straits Times Index (STI) to rise in the next six months.

At Keppel Corp higher productivity in its rig-building business helped Keppel Corp to achieve record profits in the fourth quarter.

Net profit for the three months ended December 31 rose 17 percent to $403 million – the highest quarterly profit in the company’s history. This came despite revenue falling 19 per cent to $2.44 billion for the period.

For the full year, earnings were up 12 percent to $1.42 billion, on improved contributions from the offshore and marine division due to cost efficiencies and higher productivity on delivered contracts.

Its property business helped too, with higher contribution from residential projects in Singapore, China, and Vietnam, and Keppel’s share of the profit of an associated company developing Marina Bay Suites in Singapore.

The better full-year earnings came even as revenue for the 12 months fell 20 per- cent to $9.78 billion.

Keppel has proposed a final dividend of 26 cents a share, taking the total payout for 2010 to 42 cents per share. The company also plans to issue shareholders with one new share for every 10 existing shares. Meanwhile, 66 percent of Singapore investors also expect their personal portfolios to appreciate.

The JPMorgan survey found that 63 per cent of investors expect the economic environment to improve, while 67 percent say the investment environment will be better.

Only 21 percent are concerned about the prevailing volatility in global markets.

But inflation is a concern in Singapore too.

Singapore’s consumer price index rose 4.6 percent in December and 86 percent of the respondents in the JPMorgan survey expect inflationary pressures to remain a challenge over the next six months.

On average, investors in the survey expect inflation to remain high at 4.3 percent by the end of June.

In Manila the Philippine Stock Exchange index gained 57.59 points, or 1.47 percent, to 3,960.30.

The rally was led by the property and investment firms Shayne Heffernan of noted, “on average the property sector closed up 3.9 percent and the investment companies up 2.6 percent”.

Value turnover amounted to P6.18 billion.

There were 88 gainers as against 41 decliners, while 43 stocks were unchanged.

The big winners were Cebu Air Inc., Ayala Corp., Manila Electric Co., Megaworld Corp., SM Investments Corp., Metro Pacific Investments Corp., Fil-Estate Land Inc., San Miguel Corp., Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co., Banco de Oro Unibank Inc., Aboitiz Equity Ventures Inc., DMCI Holdings Inc., Petron Corp., Leisure & Resorts World Corp. and Semirara Mining Corp.

The Losers Aboitiz Power Corp., Alliance Global Group Inc. and Energy Development Corp. traded in the red.

In Jakarta the JCI gained 54.40 points, or 1.6 percent, to 3,400.46, set to advance on Tuesday for the first time in five days.

Shayne Heffernan Strong Buy Astra Agro Lestari, the nation’s largest listed plantation company, jumped 7.5 percent to Rp 22,850. . Shayne Heffernan saw the shift in sentiment in his report yesterday, “value always comes into play in these situations” he said.

The rupiah rose to 9,033 against the dollar on Tuesday, from 9,068 the day before, on speculation Bank Indonesia will tolerate currency gains to curb inflation from imported goods.

Another Shayne Heffernan Strong Buy Timah, Indonesia’s biggest tin producer, rose 1 percent to Rp 2,550. Tin futures climbed to a record in London yesterday, rising 1.3 percent to $28,095 a metric ton.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composite index on Tuesday lost 4.51 points or 0.47 per cent to close at 959.17 points. The market value was 40.70 billion baht, with 4.62 billion shares traded.

GM Thailand gained the biggest sales and market share among the regional big four.

About 30,000 GM vehicles were sold in Southeast Asia last year, up by 34% from 2009, with the flagship Chevrolet Captiva contributing 25% to the total.

Overall automobile sales in Asean last year reached 2.35 million units, with GM accounting for 1.3 percent.

Martin Apfel, president of Bangkok-based GM Southeast Asia, earlier said GM had planned to raise its regional market share to 10 percent by 2013 with the introduction of many new products.

“I am confident that we have the right foundation to drive the next stage of growth for GM’s business across Southeast Asia and beyond – a great brand, products and people,” said Mr Apfel, who is also president of GM Thailand and Chevrolet Sales (Thailand).

GM Thailand sold 20,026 vehicles last year, increasing by 32 percent year-on-year but lagging the 46 percent industry growth orate to just over 800,000 units.

Top five most active values were as follows;

PTT closed at 323.00 baht, up by 2.00 or 0.62 percent.

BANPU closed at 740.00 baht, down by 8.00 or 1.07 percent.

SCB closed at 98.00 baht, up by 2.50 or 2.62 percent.

KBANK closed at 114.50 baht, up by 2.00 or 1.78 percent.

TOP closed at 68.00 baht, down by 3.00 or 4.23 percent.

Shayne Heffernan on GENTING, IOICORP, AXIATA

In Kuala Lumpur Malaysia the index lost 16.54 points or 1.07 percent on Tuesday.


Shayne Heffernan noted the rise in volume today and is looking for a rally in Kuala Lumpur later this week. Trading volume increased to 1950.64 mil shares worth RM2438.87 mil as compared to Monday’s 1833.50 mil shares worth RM2209.44 mil.

Shayne Heffernan’s Best Buys in Kuala Lumpur are GENTING, IOICORP, AXIATA

The Losers were GENTING (-46 sen to RM10.84), CIMB (-14 sen to RM8.30), AXIATA (-8 sen to RM4.74), IOICORP (-8 sen to RM5.77) and AMMB (-17 sen to RM6.69).

The Winners were PETGAS (+12 sen to RM11.38), PPB (+2 sen to RM17.10) and DIGI (+2 sen to RM25.46). Market breadth was negative with 292 gainers as compared to 511 losers.

The Finance Index fell 0.75 percent to 13935.47 points, the Properties Index dropped 0.94 percent to 1078.82 points and the Plantation Index down 1.31 percent to 7893.62 points. The market traded within a range of 18.42 points between an intra-day high of 1544.85 and a low of 1526.43 during the session.


Shayne Heffernan brings more than 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over US$500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of US$15billion. He has managed and overseen start-ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.


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By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

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