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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs   10 January 2011

ASEAN will look to USA on Earnings

Shayne Heffernan

ASEAN will look to USA on Earnings

ASEAN Markets are set for a slow start as the world's attention will be focused on USA Earnings Week.

Early fourth-quarter results will set the mood this week on Wall St, any weakness will give the market a reason to test the recent rally.

In New York the major indexes finished with a sixth straight week of gains: the Dow was up 0.8 percent, the S&P 500 up 1.1 percent and the Nasdaq composite index ahead 1.9 percent. Alcoa Inc (NYSE:AA) will release results on Monday after the market's close and that launches the quarterly earnings season.

Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM), also Dow components, will likewise issue their report cards in the week and are expected to do well.

The S&P 500 has climbed 7 percent since the start of December while Alcoa has soared 25 percent and JPMorgan has surged 16 percent. Analysts say that such rapid gains leave the market more vulnerable for a pullback and could limit upside potential.

The S&P 500 has struggled to break above 1,280, though a floor appeared to be developing around 1,260, the 14-day moving average and near the 2010 close.

Based on the rally and our own research Heffernan Capital Management have set a range of -8% on a bad earnings week, and + 5% on a good earnings week.

“Friday's December employment report only added to the importance of the earnings data coming this week. A mixed report did nothing to shift investor confidence, however it did raise sensitivity to any potential bad news”, Shayne Heffernan said today.

Next week will also see retail sales data on Friday, which will be closely watched following soft December comparable sales. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book.

The Beige Book, an anecdotal report on the economy by region, comes after Chairman Ben Bernanke gave his first congressional testimony since launching a second round of quantitative easing. Bernanke said that the economy may finally be hitting its stride even if growth remains too weak to put a real dent in the U.S. unemployment situation.

“Bullishness is approaching the high end of historic marks on many metrics such as investors surveys, net futures positions on big exchanges, and options Put/Call ratios” Paul Ebeling stated in his weekly report.

Bank stocks, and the White House face a challenge next week after a ruling by Massachusetts' highest court that invalidated the seizures of two homes in foreclosure by Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) and US Bancorp (NYSE:USB).


Shayne Heffernan brings more than 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over US$500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of US$15billion. He has managed and overseen start-ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.


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