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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs  13 February 2014 


13 February 2014

The Straits Times Index (STI) ended +4.45 points higher or +0.15% to 3039.9, taking the year-to-date performance to -3.95%.

The FTSE ST Mid Cap Index declined -0.01% while the FTSE ST Small Cap Index declined -0.19%. The top active stocks were SingTel (+1.71%), DBS (+0.73%), Keppel Corp (-1.33%), OCBC (-0.53%) and Wilmar (unchanged).

The outperforming sectors today were represented by the FTSE ST Telecommunications Index (+1.52%). The two biggest stocks of the FTSE ST Telecommunications Index are SingTel (+1.71%) and StarHub (-0.24%). The underperforming sector was the FTSE ST Oil & Gas Index, which declined -0.75% with Keppel Corp ’s share price declining -1.33% and Sembcorp Industries’ share price gaining +1.68%.The FTSE ST Basic Materials Index gained +0.53%.  The FTSE ST Financials Index gained +0.08%.

The three most active Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) by value today were the SPDR Gold Shares (+0.11%), DBS Singapore STI ETF (unchanged), DBXT FTSE Vietnam ETF (+0.04%).

The three most active Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) by value were CapitaMall Trust (+0.28%), Ascendas REIT (+0.47%), Suntec REIT (+0.93%).

The most active index warrants by value today were HSI22000MBeCW140328 (-7.91%), HSI21600MBePW140328 (+2.22%), HSI22400MBePW140328 (+6.12%).

The most active stock warrants by value today were DBS MB eCW140604 (-1.38%), DBS MB eCW140502 (+1.45%), OCBC Bk MBeCW140703 (-7.14%).

Singapore Stock Market
                               Friday                     Thursday
*ST Index      3,043.56  +3.66        3,039.9  +4.45
Volume:                215.8M                     1,839M
Value:                 $137.7M                $1,006.1M
Gainers/Losers:      130/79                    174/268


Daily Market Commentary (Securities)
13 Feb 2014

The FBM KLCI index lost 8.49 points or 0.47% on Thursday. The Finance Index fell 0.39% to 16564.13 points, the Properties Index dropped 0.28% to 1281.43 points and the Plantation Index down 0.84% to 8529.55 points. The market traded within a range of 12.50 points between an intra-day high of 1828.72 and a low of 1816.22 during the session.

Actively traded stocks include PDZ, SCH, MINETEC, LUSTER, SONA-WA, IRIS, INGENCO, SONA, SUMATEC and TMS. Trading volume increased to 2517.10 mil shares worth RM2082.52 mil as compared to Wednesday’s 2466.68 mil shares worth RM2002.76 mil.

Leading Movers were MISC (+30 sen to RM6.50), IHH (+3 sen to RM3.73), HLBANK (+8 sen to RM14.16), RHBCAP (+6 sen to RM7.90) and IOICORP (+1 sen to RM4.28). Lagging Movers were CIMB (-10 sen to RM7.09), KLK (-70 sen to RM23.52), DIGI (-10 sen to RM5.05), SIME (-9 sen to RM8.99) and GENTING (-12 sen to RM10.06). Market breadth was negative with 318 gainers as compared to 483 losers.

The KLCI ended lower at 1817.15 points, in line with the broadly lower regional markets, as investors continued to take profit after the recent rally of our local market. The better-than-expected GDP data has failed to excite the market, as investors remained wary on the foreign funds outflow from emerging markets following the Fed chief said Fed would keep tapering the stimulus program.


Indonesia holds rates as current-account deficit narrows sharply

 * Policy rate kept at 7.50 pct, as expected in a Reuters poll

* Current-account deficit at 1.98 of GDP in Q4 -

* Bank Indonesia says to stay vigilant to inflation risks

Indonesia's central bank kept its benchmark rate unchanged on Thursday, as expected, and said the troubling current-account deficit narrowed last quarter to its smallest in 1-1/2 years, leaving it less vulnerable to emerging market volatility.

Southeast Asia's largest country is the only one of the "Fragile Five" major emerging economies not to have raised rates this year to fend off the recent emerging markets rout. India, Turkey, Brazil and South Africa raised rates last month to bolster their economies.

Some economists said the central bank's tightening cycle may be over.

A slowdown in imports, higher exports and moderating inflation all gave Bank Indonesia a chance to pause for the third consecutive month, leaving the reference rate  at 7.50 percent.

It still sounded a cautious note over inflation and said it was not easing back on a tight monetary policy that began last June to guard against capital outflows from U.S. tapering and risks from this year's much-criticised mineral export ban that could pressure the country's trade account.

"The policy remains consistent with the tight monetary policy stance to direct inflation to its target in 2014 and 2015, as well as easing the current-account deficit towards a healthier level," Governor Agus Martowardojo told reporters.

Indonesia lifted its reference rate by a total of 175 basis points between June and November, after offshore investors dumped Indonesian assets and battered the rupiah  which lost more than 20 percent in 2013.

In a sign of how attitudes have changed, the rupiah  has become the best performer among Asia's emerging market currencies on Thursday. Last year, it was its worst.


Martowardojo said the current-account deficit in the fourth quarter had narrowed sharply to 1.98 percent of GDP. That is half what it was six months ago, when it stood at a record 4.4 percent of GDP, dragging down the rupiah. The deficit is now the smallest since Q2 of 2012.

The G20 economy is among the most vulnerable countries to the risk of outflows due to its current-account deficit.

But a Reuters poll showed sentiment in the rupiah had risen to its highest in 1-1/2 years, further highlighting that the central bank's actions have helped differentiate it from the rest of the "Fragile Five". ID:nL3N0LI1T8

The vast majority of analysts in a Reuters poll had predicted Bank Indonesia would hold its benchmark rate steady at 7.50 percent. It also kept the deposit facility rate, or FASBI and the lending facility rate unchanged at 5.50 percent and 7.50 percent, respectively.

Some analysts expect further rate hikes by the central bank to fund the current-account deficit as risks start building up due to adverse weather, elections and the mineral export ban.

But others said the rate hike period may be at an end.

"Provided there are no further sharp and sudden falls in the rupiah, we believe the tightening cycle ... is now over," said Capital Economic Asia economist Gareth Leather.

Both the rupiah and Indonesia's main index  were barely changed after the announcement.

Encouraging balance of payments data should give Bank Indonesia room to keep its policy rate unchanged in the coming months, whilst awaiting the effect of its mineral export ban on the trade balance in the first quarter of the year.

Though domestic consumption has cooled, investors question the effectiveness of the central bank's massive rate hikes on restraining imports.

Economic growth in 2013 was the slowest in four years, but the share of domestic consumption in the overall economy rose to 55.82 percent from 54.64 percent previously.

Trade Summary
Date As of:     13 February 2014    
Description              Volume                        Value         Frequency
ETF                          9,500                  5,936,100                   87
Stock          4,243,311,570    4,750,662,407,658          157,510
Right                              00                              00                   00
Warrant            89,259,400           4,135,600,100              3,809
Total            4,332,580,470    4,754,803,943,858          161,406


Trading Summary

As of  13 February 2014         Unit: M.Baht
Type                             Buy                  Sell                  Net        
Institution              3,626.57          2,870.67             755.90     
Proprietary            2,113.26          2,576.89            -463.64     
Foreign                 5,950.85           5,781.19             169.67     
Individual            11,939.49         12,401.42           -461.93     
Total Trading Value     23,630.16 M.Baht     


Vietnam's benchmark VN Index  climbed 1.05 percent to close at 570.18 points on Thursday, boosted by positive sentiment that analysts say could
lead to more gains in the near future.

 Short-term investments were pouring into the market thanks to investors' optimism about the country's macro economic outlook, said deputy manager Nguyen Tuan at An Binh Securities.
Increasing demand from major funds also prompted individual investors to participate in the market, giving more momentum to the expansion, Tuan said.
Analysts said the index could rise further, having surpassed its 560-point strong resistance level and hit a 51-month high on Wednesday.

PetroVietNam Gas, Vietnam's largest listed firm, rose 4.43 percent to end at its record high of 82,500 dong ($3.9) each.
 Food producer Masan Group  advanced 1.62 percent, and Military Bank  jumped 5 percent to the stock's  highest close since November 2012.
 Here is a snapshot of the VN Index  at the close

                         VN Index       570.18             
                 PREV. CLOSE       564.25             
                   % CHANGE        1.05%             
                     HIGH       570.68             
                      LOW       565.27             


Southeast Asian stock markets ended mostly flat to weaker on Thursday, with Indonesia bouncing off lows after the central bank held key rates steady as expected, while Thai shares ended lower ahead of a holiday.

Jakarta's Composite Index  closed down 0.1 percent, with interest rate sensitive banks  recouping early losses and ending slightly higher. Data showed foreign investors bought a net 142.4 billion rupiah ($11.78 million) of shares.

The gauge has gained about 5 percent so far this year, with a recent set of positive economic data supportive to broader sentiment.
 Indonesia's central bank kept its benchmark reference rate  unchanged at 7.5 percent and said its current-account deficit had narrowed sharply in the fourth quarter.

The rupiah   hit its strongest in more than two months on Thursday after the rate decision.  

Thailand's SET index  edged down 0.2 percent as domestic political problems weighed on tourism shares such as carrier Thai Airways International .

The guage ended the week up 1.2 percent, its second week of gains.
Thai markets are shut on Friday for a public holiday, and will reopen on Monday.

Profit taking hit shares across the region, sending Malaysia  0.5 percent lower after six sessions of rises, while the Philippines    fell for the first time in seven sessions, closing down 0.2 percent.
Market players picked up shares of Southeast Asian firms which posted strong earnings.

In Singapore, Singapore Telecommunications Ltd  gained almost 2 percent after better-than-expected quarter earnings, outperforming the benchmark Straits Times Index   which was up 0.2 percent.
 Market                          Current     Prev Close      Pct Move
 TR SE Asia Index*       386.99          387.23             -0.06
 Singapore                    3039.90        3035.45            +0.15
 Kuala Lumpur             1817.15        1825.64             -0.47
 Bangkok                     1311.87        1314.06             -0.17
 Jakarta                        4491.66        4496.28             -0.10
 Manila                         6101.72        6112.31             -0.17
 Ho Chi Minh                 570.18          564.25             +1.05

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 • Women Shariah scholars see gender gap closing
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• Bursa Malaysia to revamp business rules
• Private property prices hit new high in Singapore • Bangkok moves on mass transport
• Thai retailers are upbeat
• Rice exports likely to decline • Vietnamese PM projects 10-year socioeconomic plan


This year in Thailand-what next?

AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More






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