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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs   2  February 2011

ASEAN to Rally

Shayne Heffernan

Strong outflows of foreign investors yesterday put a cap on ASEAN Markets, but today that will change and the ASEAN Markets will Rally.

Heffernan Capital Management best buys today are PTT, Jollibee, PLDT, Semirara

The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composite index on Tuesday fell 4.41 points or 0.46 per cent to close at 959.69 points. The market value was 23.70 billion baht,with 3.59 billion shares traded.

PTT Phenol made their 1st bisphenol-A BPA shipment this week from the 150,000 mt/year plant at Map Ta Phut, Rayong province, last week.

PTT Chemical owns 30% of PTT Phenol, while PTT Public Co. holds a 40% stake and PTT Aromatics and Refining has 30%.

BPA is used to make polycarbonate, a plastic that is in high demand in China, BPA is used in household appliances, electronic goods and automotive and aircraft components.

The company plans to sell about half of its BPA production locally initially, gradually increasing the proportion of domestic sales. BPA demand is soaring across Asia.

Thailand's PTT Phenol expects to begin production at its expanded solvents unit in the second half of 2011.

The expansion was scheduled to be finished in the second quarter of 2010 but was delayed by a court-ordered suspension.

PTT closed at 338.00 baht, up by 3.00 or 0.90 percent.

PTTAR closed at 36.75 baht, down by 0.25 or 0.68 percent.

PTTEP closed at 164.50 baht, up by 4.00 or 2.49 percent.

IVL closed at 36.50 baht, down by 2.50 or 6.41 percent.

PTTCH closed at 140.00 baht, up by 0.50 or 0.36 percent.

In Manila the Philippine Stock Exchange index lost 50.98 points, or 1.31 percent, to end at 3,830.49, the market did not follow the USA lead after an overnight bounce in Wall Street and the 7.3-percent economic growth reported by the government for 2010.

The local index is now nearing technical support at 3,800, the index has slipped 8.8 percent since the start of the year.

All sectors were red today, with the financial and holding firm sectors taking the worst beating, both declining by more than 2 percent.

Low volume signaled the sell-off is slowing and bargain-hunting on Ayala Land, Meralco, Ayala Corp. and SM Prime Holdings tempered the day’s decline. Risk appetite is still low among foreign investors as there was P711 million in net foreign selling for the day.

Foreign selling has accounted for much of the recent drop in values.

Heffernan Capital Management see the market as oversold at these levels and have issued buys on PLDT, Aboitiz Power, EDC, Banco de Oro, Metrobank, Filinvest Land, Alliance Global, Jollibee, First Holdings, San Miguel Corp., BPI, Security Bank and Semirara Mining.

The Philippines is a net oil-importing country and the recent spike in global oil prices past the $100-a-barrel mark dampened investor sentiment notwithstanding an overnight rebound in Wall Street stocks and the robust 2010 domestic economic report card.

Our Hot List today features Singapore listed food companies Olam International, Noble Group, Wilmar International. They also happen to be some of the largest food companies in the world.

Singapore listed commodities companies are set to become the rising stars of the exchange in 2011 and will become global players of significant importance.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index gained 0.2 percent 3,184.74.

Olam International Ltd, Wilmar International Ltd and Noble Group Ltd are most likely to lead the charge as the benefit from home grown markets in ASEAN, China and India, where the world's largest populations are consuming more and more of the world’s food supply.

Cash Flow is on the rise at Noble and Olam, both have successfully made the switch into production from trading, have been expanding ever since.

Olam is the world's largest supplier of cashews and sesame seeds, and is among the biggest sources of cocoa, rice, peanuts and cotton. It operates in 64 countries.

Noble is Asia's biggest supplier of raw materials. Only 22 percent of its revenue comes from agriculture, with the remainder coming from materials such as iron ore.

It has invested heavily in mines and processing.

Wilmar is Asia's leading agribusiness group and the world's largest integrated palm oil company.

Golden Agri-Resources Ltd is the world's second largest palm oil plantation with a total planted area of 435,000 hectares (including small holders) as at 30 September 2010, located in Indonesia. It has integrated operations focused on the production of palm-based edible oil and fat products.

Demand is expected to grow because of demand for biofuels, which is part of the reason the company bought the sugar and renewable energy businesses from Australia's CSR.


Shayne Heffernan brings more than 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over US$500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of US$15billion. He has managed and overseen start-ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.


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This year in Thailand-what next?

04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More

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