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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs   22  February 2011

ASEAN Markets Great Buying This Week

Shayne Heffernan

This week we can expect a slow start and some buying opportunities in most of the world’s markets, we are still on the speediest rally in U.S. stocks since the Great Depression despite growing concerns that the market is overbought and due for a correction.

The writing is on the Wall as Trading volumes have been exceptionally low recently and the CBOE Volatility Index VIX, is up on the week despite the gains in stocks.

The index is usually inversely correlated to the S&P 500, and a rise in the VIX typically means a drop in the stock market.

The VIX, which ended at 16.43, up 4.7 percent on the week, is still historically low but substantially higher than in recent months. That suggests investors see a fall ahead.

Libya, Oil Prices and US Politics may see a soft start for markets that will result in a correction. February has proven to be historically weak in terms of Wall St. and that may keep markets around the world fairly flat.

Should the market drift now they could fall as much as 4% according to Shayne Heffernan, the upside is somewhat limited, this is a month to be buying quality on the dips.

The bottom of the S&P 500 estimates appears to be around 1,227 at this point our technical analysts see as strong support for the market, anything under 1239 would be an ideal entry point on dividend and other large caps.

For now 1,240 would be the most probable stop for the benchmark, said Shayne Heffernan. That coincides with the current 50-day moving average and the 23.6 percent retracement of the rally from Sept. 1.

Heffernan Capital Management remains bullish on the Index regardless of the first weekly drop in eight weeks. Shayne Heffernan says the S&P could reach 1,350 by the middle of July before seeing another sell off.

Remember when you are trading this week that February is historically the second weakest month of the year for the S&P 500, with the index down 0.2 percent on average for that month since 1950.The trend of stocks starting off lower in the morning session but ending higher by the afternoon has been ongoing for weeks as investors view the small dips as reasons to buy.

In Asia in February

Three words sum up my Asian outlook this week, buy, buy, buy. Singapore, Thailand,Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta all look oversold this week.

Singapore will get a lift from strong performance in agriculture, shipping and financial services.

Wall Street posted its third consecutive week of gains with the S&P 500 now up 6.8 percent for the year and more than 20 percent in just six months.


Yesterday The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) composite index gained 0.10 point or 0.01 per cent to close at 995.67 points on Monday. The trade value was 27.98 billion baht, with 2.57 billion shares traded.

Top five most active values were as follows;

SCB closed at 103.50 baht, up 2.00 or 1.97 per cent.

BANPU closed at 768.00 baht, up 8.00 or 1.05 per cent.

PTTCH closed at 154.00 baht, up 4.50 or 3.01 per cent.

PTT closed at 331.00 baht, down 3.00 or 0.90 per cent.

CPF closed at 23.00 baht, up 1.10 or 5.02 per cent.

Wednesday will be the day to be buying in Thailand.


Share prices on the Singapore Exchange closed lower on Monday, with the benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) down 16.32 points, or 0.53 percent, at 3,070.6. A total of 1.26 billion shares changed hands on a market turnover of 1.27 billion Singapore dollars (0.99 billion U.S. dollars).

In Singapore Wednesday will be buying day, my best buys are Golden Agri, Noble, Olam and Sembcorp


Shayne Heffernan brings more than 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over US$500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of US$15billion. He has managed and overseen start-ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.


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