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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs   14  February 2011

ASEAN Markets to add 2% Plus this week

Shayne Heffernan

This is the week to be buying Asean Stocks, Thailand, Singapore, Jakarta and Malaysia should all end the week with 2 percent plus gains.

Stocks have shown remarkable resilience as investors buy on any drop in prices, even in the face of what seem like considerable risks.

Lots of earnings are due out this week making Thai Stocks look very attractive, earnings will be good.

Confidence in the economy, strong earnings, and inflows into equities from bond funds have been enough to push indexes to new highs on an almost daily basis even if light volume and slight gains show investors are not making aggressive moves.


Tisco Financial Group, the owner/operator of Bangkok based Tisco Bank and related finance companies, reported surprise 45 percent growth in net profit for 2010, driven by strong loan growth during economic uncertainty in last year.

In Early January 2011 Suthas Ruangmanamongkol, president of Tisco Bank, told reporters the group expects 2011 net profit to rise 10-15 percent, in line with loan growth forecast,

* Aims for 2011 net interest margin at 3.5-3.6 percent, same as 2010

* Expects nonperforming loans to be flat at 1.8 percent at the end of 2011

* Plans to sell 1.0-2.0 billion baht subordinated bonds this year to boost its tier 2 capital

* In talks with Deutsche Bank in Bangkok to expand securities brokerage business, Chief Executive Officer Oranuch Apisaksirikul told reporters

Tisco Financial opened the Thailand Stock Exchange earnings season yesterday by reporting a net profit of 2.88 billion baht compared with 1.98 billion the year before.

Net interest and dividend income grew 20.5 percent from the groups’ strong expansion in all loan businesses of 32 percent year-on-year. Tisco maintained an average loan spread at 5 percent,the same as in 2009, according to a statement filed to the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

Non-interest income hit 3.87 billion baht, up 1 billion baht or 34.9 percent year-on-year, led by growth in banking fees of 28.5 percent.

Non-interest income was also grew aided by financial advisory fees earned by Tisco on the sale of a stake owned by the bank of Thailand in Siam City Bank Plc to Thanachart Capital, and gains on foreclosed properties totaling 129.39 million baht.

Tisco’s Brokerage income increased by 29.2 percent year-on-year, while the Tisco group recorded gains from investment totaling 210 million baht following the improvement in capital market conditions.

Basic fee income from the asset management business increased by 20.2 percent, driven by the increase in assets under management.

Asset quality significantly improved with the non-performing loan ratio falling to 1.8 percent of total debt outstanding, compared to 2.5% at the end of 2009, the company said.

To protect against future volatility and systemic risk, the group set aside provisions for bad debts and doubtful accounts totaling 1.93 billion baht which accounted for 1.5 percent of its total average loan portfolio.

At the end of 2010, the group had general reserves totaling 2.35 billion baht.

TISCO shares closed yesterday on the Stock Exchange of Thailand at 37 baht, up 50 satang, in trade worth 167.26 million baht.

TISCO Financial Group Public Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides personal, private, SME, and corporate banking; and securities services in Thailand and internationally.

Its deposit products include current accounts, savings accounts, fixed accounts, and certificates of deposit/negotiable certificates of deposit. The company’s loan products portfolio comprises loans offered to individuals, and small and medium-sized enterprises for personal consumption or business operations; hire-purchase financing; and finance provided to medium and large corporate clients for commercial purposes, including working capital loans, project and term loans, guarantee and aval services, and credit offered for other commercial purposes, such as loans against deposits or liquid assets with short or medium terms using liquidity assets as collateral.

It also offers bancassurance, cash management, securities brokerage, asset management, custodian, loan consultancy, and financial advisory services, including public offerings, mergers and acquisitions, financial restructuring, feasibility studies, and corporate valuation. Keppel Corp

Shayne Heffernan strong buy Keppel Offshore & Marine Ltd (Keppel O&M) Singapore, announced its subsidiary Keppel FELS Brasil had secured 2 new contracts totalling S$381.4 million for Floating Production storage and Offloading (FPSO)units.

The contracts were signed with Single Buoy Moorings Inc. (SBM), and another from the joint venture company MODEC and Toyo Offshore Production Systems (MTOPS).

In January Keppel Corp KPLM, the world's biggest offshore rig maker, reported a 30 percent rise in fourth quarter net profit, helped by strong contribution from property and higher margins in its rig business.

The conglomerate earned $343 million in the three month ended December 2009, up from $263 million a year ago.

The net profit was higher than analysts estimates of $286 million, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Keppel said it had an order book of $5.6 billion with deliveries until 2013, down from $6 billion in the previous quarter.

Keppel also said it planned to list a 'green' business trust in Singapore and would give 50.5 per cent of the units to shareholders in the form of a dividend.

Keppel FELS Brasil's contract with SBM is for the fabrication and installation of topside modules on the Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel Cidade De Paraty, which was awarded in association with Queiroz Galvão Óleos e Gás S.A. (QGOG) and is currently undergoing conversion at Keppel Shipyard in Singapore.

Chow Yew Yuen, President (The Americas) of Keppel O&M, said, "Keppel has worked closely with various international drillers and fleet owners operating in Brazil for some 30 years. Today, in replicating Keppel O&M's proven systems and practices in Brazil, we are able to offer a full range of offshore solutions in construction,conversion, repair and modification, as well as the fabrication and integration of production topsides, among others.

"We are heartened that SBM and MTOPS have reaffirmed our position as the choice solutions partner in Brazil's offshore and marine industry with these contracts to fabricate and integrate modules for their latest FPSOs. As we grow our competencies and track record as the most established shipyard in Latin America, we will continue to nurture win-win relationships with our valued customers. We see the market improving and our yard has the capacity and capability to take on more jobs."

Chow added, "Like our recent delivery of P-57, this project demonstrates the synergy of the Keppel O&M shipyards in providing a comprehensive suite of services to our customers and brings to bear our near market, near customer strategy."

Deliveries still on track

Just a day prior to the announcement of the two FPSO contracts, Keppel FELS in Singapore reported that the Alpha Star, the second of two DSS 38 semi-submersible drilling rigs, was expected to be delivered ahead of schedule to QGOG.

Keppel FELS was awarded a total of S$40,000 in safety bonuses from QGOG for the strong safety performance during the construction phase. The rig has been chartered by Petrobras for six years to support exploration and production activities offshore Brazil.

Th first DSS 38 semi-submersible, the Gold Star (shown in thumbnail photo), was built by Keppel FELS and went to work for Petrobras in 2010.

Tong Chong Heong, CEO of Keppel FELS' parent company, Keppel Offshore & Marine,said, "The Alpha Star is a shining example of great teamwork and reflects a complete alignment of goals and priorities between Keppel FELS and QGOG. Together, we have successfully achieved an efficiency boost of 20% on this second rig, without compromising the safety of our people and workplace.

Jointly developed and owned by Keppel's Deepwater Technology Group and Marine Structure Consultants, the DSSTM 38 design is in the league of some of the world's most advanced drilling semisubmersibles.

DSS 38 is rated to drill 30,000 feet below mud line in over 9,000 feet water depth. It has an operational displacement of over 38,000 tonnes and can accommodate 130 men. It also features both vertical and horizontal riser storage and is configured with eight 3,000 kW azimuth thrusters to keep the rig in position.

Designed to maximise uptime with reduced emissions and discharges, a DSS 38 rig is well-suited to handle the operational requirements in the deepwater "Golden Triangle" region, which comprises Brazil, Africa and the Gulf of Mexico.


Meanwhile, the new FPSO work for SBM is expected to commence at Keppel FELS Brasil's BrasFELS shipyard in Angra dos Reis, Rio de Janeiro in the first quarter of 2011. The vessel is scheduled to arrive in the first quarter of 2012 with delivery in the fourth quarter of 2012.

The work scope will include the fabrication and installation of six process modules and a riser gantry as well as the installation and integration of another six process modules supplied by SBM.

The FPSO Cidade de Paraty will be deployed in the pre-salt region of the Santos Basin and will have a production capacity of 120,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd),and be able to compress 5 million cubic metres of gas per day.

In its contract with MTOPS, a joint venture company between MODEC and Toyo Engineering Corporation, BrasFELS will undertake the module fabrication and integration of the FPSO Cidade de Sao Paulo MV23, which was awarded in association with Schahin Engenharia S.A.

Work is expected to begin at BrasFELS in the first quarter of 2011. The yard's scope includes the fabrication of topsides modules such as riser manifolds, laydown areas and the flare tower, as well as the assembly and integration of fabricated pancakes/skids.

To be completed in the fourth quarter of 2012, the FPSO will be deployed in the pre-salt region of the Santos Basin. The FPSO will have a production capacity of 120,000 bopd, and be able to compress 180 million cubic feet of gas per day and store 1.6 million barrels of oil. Ongoing at BrasFELS is the upgrading and repairing of Noble's Brazil-based drillships with delivery stretching into 2012.


Shayne Heffernan has issued a Strong Buy on DBS Group Holdings in Singapore with a 2011 price target of $20.

DBS Group Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company that operates through its main subsidiary, DBS Bank Ltd (the Bank).

The Bank is engaged in the provision of retail, small and medium-sized enterprise, corporate, and investment banking services. The Company’s financial businesses are organized into five sectors: Consumer Banking, Institutional Banking, Global Financial Markets, Central Treasury Unit, and Central Operations

DBS, which kicked off earnings for Singapore banks, posted a net profit of S$678 million (US$530 million)in October-December against S$493 million a year earlier.

Bad debt charges declined 59 percent to S$157 million from a year ago. Net interest income however fell 2 percent to S$1.1 billion as net interest margins declined by 23 basis points 1.79 percent in the fourth quarter.

Fees and commission income was flat at S$358 million, while trading income tripled to S$164 million.

There has been market talk that DBS, which wants to increase income from outside its core Singapore and Hong Kong markets, could buy state investor Temasek’s 68 percent stake in Indonesia’s Bank Danamon .


Shayne Heffernan brings more than 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over US$500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of US$15billion. He has managed and overseen start-ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.


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This year in Thailand-what next?

04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More

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