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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs   26  August  2011

Asean Stock Watch- August 26

AseanAffairs

US

U.S. stocks closed lower, reversing three days of gains, as investors remained cautious ahead of Fed's chairman Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech this Friday The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 170.89 points, or 1.51 percent at 11,149.82 The S&P 500 slumped 18.33 points, or 1.56 percent at 1,159.27.

All 10 S&P sectors finished in the red, led by energy The Nasdaq declined 48.06 points, or 1.95 percent at 2,419.63.

Indonesia

Indonesia’s benchmark stock index fell for a second day, with Indofood Sukses Makmur among the declines after a broker downgraded its recommendation on shares in the nation’s largest noodle maker.

Timah, Indonesia’s largest listed tin miner, gained after reporting first-half profit that more than doubled.

The Jakarta Composite Index fell 2.64 points, or 0.1 percent, to close at 3,844.38, extending Wednesday’s 0.9 percent slide. About 5.99 billion shares valued at Rp 4.22 trillion ($494 million) were traded. Gainers outnumbered decliners, 110 to 94. Foreign investors sold Rp 318 billion more in shares than they purchased.

Indofood Sukses Makmur lost 3.9 percent to close at Rp 6,200. CIMB Securities Indonesia on Thursday revised down its recommendation to ‘neutral’ from ‘outperform’ as its profit margin was pressured by the increasing prices for raw materials such as flour and cooking oil.

The broker kept its share price target at Rp 6,400. The company on Wednesday revealed first-half results showing a rise in net income of 42 percent on a year earlier.

Timah climbed 3.5 percent to Rp 2,250. Net income for the January-June period surged 113 percent from a year earlier on strong tin demand and higher selling prices for the metal.

Trading has slowed this week as investors refrain from buying or selling stocks ahead of the Idul Fitri holiday, during which the market will be closed. Indonesia Stock Exchange showed there were 86,807 transactions on Thursday, a little over half last week’s daily average.

Investors are awaiting comments from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke as to whether he would implement a new quantitative easing program to try to boost growth in the US economy.

“Local investors don’t want to have any open position when the market will be closed for a week, and especially when the global market fluctuation is still unpredictable,” said Mastono Ali, equity analyst at CIMB.

Among sectors, consumer goods suffered from profit taking and fell the furthest, while property and financial shares advanced.

Sentul City, a suburban home developer, surged 14 percent to Rp 295. The company announced plans to build an integrated business center, in which it is investing Rp 2 trillion.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Indonesia’s second largest bank by assets, advanced 1.6 percent to Rp 6,500. Panin Sekuritas, in a note on Thursday said that the bank’s remittance transactions from January to July rose by 23 percent to $7.5 million compared to the same period last year.

The rupiah lost 0.5 percent to trade at 8,585 against dollar as companies bought dollars to pay their monthly credit settlement and people traveling abroad next week purchase dollars.

Malaysia

The market barometer, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) dipped in early trade Friday, with losses led by finance stocks as investors opted to reduce their exposure against the backdrop of a volatile global market.

The FBM KLCI fell 11.14 points to 1,453.6 within 16 minutes of trading. It had opened at 1,460.3, down 4.44 points.

HwangDBS Vickers Research said the FBM KLCI could pull back from its support level of 1,465, as investors may want to lighten their exposure, ahead of the holiday-shortened trading sessions next week.

This comes even as Wall Street was hit by renewed overnight selling activity.

"Major US equity indices fell between 1.5 percent and 1.9 percent amid mixed expectations on whether the Federal Reserve chairman would be proposing any fresh policy measures to stimulate the weak US economy at a meeting tonight," HwangDBS Vickers Research added.

On the domestic front, corporate earnings have not been attractive, in continuing to slide, with both big and small caps sharing the disappointments and downgrades.

Hence, OSK Research said with fundamentals now appearing uncertain not just globally but also affecting Malaysia, it would appear again that the equity market has been extremely efficient in predicting this with the large sell-off in August that triggered its early downgrade of the market.

"We remain neutral on the Malaysian market with a 2012 FBM KLCI fair value of 1,466 points based on a one time price earning ratio (PER).

"We note though that our earnings growth forecast of 12.8 per cent is likely to be pared down and thus cause our FBM KLCI fair value to be pegged against a higher PER in the coming months," it added.

However, OSK said that it is not yet time to aggressively bottom fish with a potential downside target of 1,378 points, advising investors instead to look into defensive counters.

Bursa Malaysia's Finance Index fell 182.56 points to 13,642.08 and the Plantation Index shed 45.78 points to 7,313.03 but the Industrial Index added 7.43 points to 2,719.99.

The FBM Emas Index shed 63.14 points to 9,952.28, the FBM70 Index was down 35.75 points to 10,867.64 and the FBM Ace lost 8.71 points to 3,718.73.

Decliners led advancers by 156 to 47 while 100 counters were unchanged and 1,183 others untraded.

A total of 39.19 million shares worth RM83.21 million were traded.

The most active, CIMB, shed 24 sen to RM7.01 while Hong Leong Finance which was also listed as the top loser dipped 56 sen to RM11.58 and Maybank eased six sen to RM8.67.

RHB Capital declined eight sen to RM8.24, Public Bank lost six sen to RM13.02 and Hong Leong Bank slid 10 sen to RM12.68.

Among other actives, Eden inched up 2.5 sen to 31 sen, Trinity was flat at six sen and Axiata slipped eight sen to RM4.55.

For the heavyweights, Sime Darby was flat at RM8.80, Petronas Chemicals shed seven sen to RM6.23, Maxis edged down one sen to RM5.41 and Tenaga declined five sen to RM5.27.

Bursa Malaysia finished on easier note on Thursday, led by finance stocks, on selling pressure as global economic growth outlook dampened investor sentiment, dealers said.

The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) fell 4.41 points, or 0.3 per- cent to 1,464.74.

The benchmark index had opened 1.22 points higher at 1,470.37 and hovered between 1,460.96 and 1,471.03 in quiet trading throughout the day.

Dealers said finance stocks came under selling pressure due to the global economic headwinds and their potential negative impact on the asset quality.

TA Securities senior technical analyst, Stephen Soo, said the local market was in consolidation mode as it needed to rebuild support despite steadier regional markets in line with Wall Street's gain overnight.

"Many investors also stayed on the sidelines awaiting hints from US Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, of a possible new stimulus plan tomorrow," he said.

He said most banking stocks were hit today amid foreign selling as investor sentiment was still fragile following Japan's credit rating cut and the unresolved European debt woes.

The Plantation Index gained 76.98 points to 7,358.81 and the Industrial Index added 17.64 points to 2,712.56.

The Finance Index, however, fell 207.521 points to 13,824.64.

The FBM Emas Index declined 29.811 points to 10,015.42, Malaysia Mid 70 Index decreased 43.08 points to 10,903.39 and FBM Ace Index lost 36.57 points to 3,727.44.

Losers overwhelmed gainers by 429 to 240 while 311 counters closed unchanged and 501 others untraded.

Volume fell to 833.92 million shares worth RM2.022 billion from 892.352 million shares worth RM1.857 billion yesterday.

Of the gainers, BAT rose 98 sen to RM44.48, Petronas Dagangan added 40 sen to RM17.60 and Genting went up 26 sen to RM9.78.

Among actives, Axiata dropped 22 sen to RM4.63, Telekom gained five sen to RM4.23 and DVM Technology fell half sen to 11 sen.

As for heavyweights, Maybank declined one sen to RM8.73, Sime Darby rose 10 sen to RM8.80 and Petronas Chemicals was flat at RM6.30.

Among losers, RHB Capital fell 58 sen to RM8.32, CIMB declined 35 sen to RM7.25 and F&N dropped 32 sen to RM16.50.

Volume on the Main Market fell to 686.398 shares worth RM2.003 billion from 729.666 million shares worth RM1.831 billion yesterday.

Turnover on the ACE market declined to 92.493 million units valued at RM13.980 million from 99.072 million units valued at RM15.667 million previously.

Warrants decreased to 53.661 million shares worth RM3.966 million from 58.804 million shares worth RM5.684 million on Wednesday.

Consumer products accounted for 26.191 million shares traded on the Main Market, industrial products 128.587 million, construction 30.735 million, trade and services 251.845 million, technology 11.034 million, infrastructure 11.337 million, finance 114.475 million, hotels 548,300, properties 79.225 million, plantation 24.78 million, mining 25,000, REITs 6.549 million and closed/fund 50,800.

The FBM KLCI futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives were lower in early trade Thursday amid a weaker cash market, dealers said.

At 9.41am, August 2011 fell 9.5 points to 1,453, September 2011 dipped 11.5 points to 1,447, December 2011 declined 10.5 points to 1,445 and March 2012 eased 4.5 points to 1,449.

Turnover stood at 9,577 lots while open interest amounted to 30,198 contracts.

The underlying FBM KLCI lost 12.11 points to 1,452.63.

Philippines

Philippine share prices on Thursday tumbled for the second straight session as the market continued to consolidate ahead of the long weekend.

At the Philippine Stock Exchange, the composite index lost 23.76 points, or 0.54 percent to 4,342.69, while the broader all-shares index inched up by less than a point to 3,014.62.

Decliners beat advancers, 95 to 60, while 22 stocks were unchanged. A total of 15.61 billion stocks worth P7.79 billion changed hands.

“The market is just in a consolidation mode given the long weekend ahead,” said Astro del Castillo, managing director at First Grade Finance Inc.

“Even tomorrow, I’m not confident that the market will be active because nobody wants to reposition for the long weekend,” del Castillo added.

The market will be closed on Monday and Tuesday because of the National Heroes Day and Eid’l Fitr holiday. Trading resumes on Wednesday.

The PSEi was also dragged by the weakness in mining stocks, led by Lepanto Consolidated Mining Co. and Philex Mining Corp., after gold prices retreated from record levels.

“Nevertheless this is possibly just a price correction with still much potential to outperform other commodities as investors seek a safe haven to diversify their investments away from equities,” said AB Capital Securities Inc.

Local stocks bucked the rally in Asian markets, which got a boost from US data showing better-than-expected sales for cars and planes in July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 143.95 points, or 1.3 percent, to 11,320.71

At the Philippine Dealing System, the peso edged lower against the dollar Thursday following the national government’s fiscal report and weakening imports data.

The local unit shed 4.5 centavos to close at 42.50 against the greenback from 42.475 the previous trading day.

The dollar-peso pair opened 42.50 and moved to a high of 42.565 and to a low of 42.460. Total trading volume eased to $716.100 million from $825.030 million.

The currency pair is expected to end the week at the 42.200 to 43.100 range today.

Singapore

Singapore shares opened lower on Friday, with the benchmark Straits Times Index at 2,747.16 in early trade, up 0.67 percent, or 18.58 points.

Around 36.9 million shares exchanged hands.

Losers beat gainers 113 to 29.

Thailand

The Stock Exchange of Thailand main index went down 21.43 points or 2.05 percent to close at 1,025.00 points at the end of trading session on Thursday afternoon. The trade value was 33.25 billion baht, with 5.56 billion shares traded.

The SET50 index ended at 711.48 points, down 14.22 points or 1.96 percent, with a total trade value of 23.89 billion baht.

he SET100 index fell 33.30 points or 2.10 percent to stand at 1,551.42 points, with a total turnover of 28.42 billion baht.

The SETHD went down 16.22 points, or 1.61 percent, to 990.79 points, with the total trade value of 8.23 billion baht.

The MAI index dropped 10.21 points or 3.42 percent to close at 288.64 points, with total transaction value of 565.13 million baht.

Top five most active values were as follows;

PTT closed at 309.00 baht, down 6.00 baht (1.90 percent)

KTB closed at 18.30 baht, down 1.00 baht (5.18 percent)

KBANK closed at 122.00 baht, down 2.50 baht (2.01 percent)

ADVANC closed at 113.50 baht, down 0.50 baht (0.44 percent)

JAS (XD) closed at 2.24 baht, down 0.38 baht (14.50 percent)

Vietnam

Shares Thursday rose on the HCM Stock Exchange, with the VN-Index closing up 1.25 percent on 401.65 points, led by the rebound of blue chips.

Seven of the 10 largest shares led by market capitalisation posted gains, of which property developer Vincom (VIC) was up 4 percent, PetroVietnam Finance (PVF) rose 2.4 percent, Vietinbank (CTG) increased 2 per cent while others were up from 0.3-1.8 percent.

Gainers outnumbered losers by 133-80 overall.

Market value increased slightly to over VND505.8 billion (US$24.3 million), with more than 30 million shares changing hands.

Shares of Refrigeration Electrical Engineering Corp (REE), with 2.19 million shares exchanged, became the most active stock. REE hit the daily limit of 5 percent to close at VND11,600 ($0.56) a share.

On the Ha Noi Stock Exchange, the HNX-Index gained nearly 1 per cent to finish on 69.75 points today.

Trading value improved slightly to VND447.7 billion ($21.5 million) on a volume of 49.7 million shares.

Advancers inched up decliners by just 117-108.

Kim Long Brokerage House (KLS) stocks remained the most heavily traded nationwide with over 7.3 million shares changing hands, even though it lost 2.6 per cent to close at VND11,400 ($0.55).



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This year in Thailand-what next?

AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

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