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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs   11 April 2012

ASEAN Market Outlook

 By Shayne Heffernan Ph.D.

ASEAN Markets will open lower after a major sell off overseas, but after hours, Alcoa MYSE:AA posted better than expected results and that may leave sentiment mixed today in ASEAN.

The selloff in U.S. stocks accelerated on Tuesday, as the Dow and S&P 500 dropped for a fifth day, with the pullback coming on the cusp of earnings season.

The slide marked the S&P 500's worst day since Dec. 8. The declines were the largest losses this year in terms of both points and percentage drops for each of the three major U.S. stock indexes.

All S&P 500 sectors ended solidly lower, with industrial and materials names suffering the biggest drops. About 80 percent of shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq Stock Market ended lower.

The major U.S. stock indexes each fell more than 1.5 percent, pushing the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average of 1,372.30, an area viewed as a significant support level that will make or break the current uptrend.

Singapore will open lower today but there is some hope of a rally after Alcoa NYSE:AA reported better than expected results.

Best buys in Singapore today are banks DBS, UOB, OCBC

Banks will see a run of IPO’s after Bumitama list on the 12th of this month, Ferrari, Manchester United etc may restart listing efforts as Bumitama is expected to have a huge opening day.
This action will help the financial institutions long term.

News from China helped stocks yesterday and today Singapore may not follow the USA lower.

China returned to an export-led trade surplus last month, heralding the prospect that the global economy may be passing its low point in the current cycle and lifting overseas orders just in time to compensate for a slowdown in domestic demand.

The trade surplus of US$5.35 billion (S$6.74 billion) last month confounded economists’ expectations of a US$1.3 billion deficit as exports surged and import growth eased from a 13-month peak, customs data showed yesterday.
The data reinforced most analysts’ view that China’s trade-sensitive economy is set for a soft landing, with growth likely to have eased for a fifth successive quarter to 8.3 per cent in the first three months of this year, and remaining on course for its slowest year of expansion in a decade.

United Overseas Bank Limited (UOB), incorporated on 6 August 1935, is principally engaged in the business of banking in all its aspects, including the operation of an Asian Currency Unit under the terms and conditions specified by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). The principal activities of its major subsidiaries include commercial banking, merchant banking, insurance, investment, investment management, gold/futures dealing, property, property and travel. UOB provides a range of financial services through its global network of branches, offices, subsidiaries and associates: personal financial services, private banking, commercial and corporate banking, investment banking, corporate finance, capital market activities, treasury services, futures broking, asset management, venture capital management, insurance and stockbroking services. In March 2011, the Company incorporated a wholly owned subsidiary, UOB Funding LLC.

DBS Group Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company that operates through its main subsidiary, DBS Bank Ltd (the Bank). The Bank is engaged in the provision of retail, small and medium-sized enterprise, corporate and investment banking services. The Company’s financial businesses are organized into four segments: consumer/private banking, institutional banking, treasury and others.

Consumer/Private Banking

Consumer/ Private Banking provides individual customers with a range of banking and related financial services. The products and services available to customers include current and savings accounts, fixed deposits, loans and home finance, cards, payments, investment and insurance products.

Institutional Banking
Institutional Banking provides financial services and products to institutional clients including non bank financial institutions, government linked companies, large corporates and small and medium-sized businesses. The products and services available to customers include long and short term credit facilities ranging from specialized lending, such as asset financing, project financing and real estate financing to overdraft, trade, receivables financing and structured trade; cash management and deposit; treasury and markets; corporate finance and advisory banking services for mergers and acquisitions, capital raising through debt and equity markets, capital restructuring, syndicated finance, securities and fiduciary services and private equity. Institutional Banking also provides equity services through DBS Vickers Securities (DBSV). DBSV offers a range of services to retail and corporate customers including research, sales and trading, share placement, nominees and securities custodian services and distribution of primary and secondary issues.

Treasury provides treasury services to corporations, institutional and private investors, financial institutions and other market participants. It is primarily involved in sales, structuring, market making and trading across a broad range of financial products including foreign exchange, interest rate, debt, credit, equity and other structured derivatives. Income from these financial products and services offered to the customer of other business segments, such as Consumer/Private Banking and Institutional Banking, is reflected in the respective segments. Treasury is also responsible for facilitating the execution of Company’s asset interest rate positions and management of the investment of its excess liquidity and shareholders funds.

Others encompasses a range of activities from corporate decisions. It also includes income and expenses not attributed to the Company’s other business segments.

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation Limited is engaged in the business of banking, life assurance, general insurance, asset management, investment holding, futures and stockbroking. It operates in five segments: Global Consumer Financial Services, which includes a range of products and services offered to individuals, including deposit products, consumer loans, credit cards and wealth management products; Global Corporate Banking, which provides financial services; Global Treasury, which engages in foreign exchange activities, money market operations and derivatives trading; Insurance, which includes fund management activities, and Others, which includes PT Bank OCBC NISP TBK (OCBC NISP), PacificMas Berhad, corporate finance, property holding and investment holding. On September 29, 2011, it acquired SIG Plaza Co., Ltd

The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) has received listing proposals from five companies for IPOs this year and another two are awaiting regulatory approval.
The Jakarta Composite Index, has gained 8.6 percent this year and closed last Tuesday at a record high. Overseas investors, who make up almost 45 percent of total trading, have purchased Rp 11 trillion ($1.2 billion) more in shares than they have sold.

The Future IPO’s are Toba Bara Sejahtera, retailer Global Teleshop, media company MNC Sky Vision, equipment maker Kobexindo Tractors and insurer Asuransi Mitra Maparya.

Meanwhile, retailer Supra Boga Lestari and garment maker Trisula International are awaiting approval from the country’s Capital Market and Financial Institution Supervisory Agency (Bapepam-LK). Indonesian companies typically obtain approval from the IDX followed by Bapepam-LK before selling shares to the public for the first time.

Ten companies underwent IPOs in the second quarter last year, according to Bapepam-LK data. Four companies made their IPO in the first quarter.

Toba Bara, a coal miner founded by military veteran Luhut Panjaitan, is expected to be one of the biggest IPOs this year. Eddy said the company was selling 20 percent of its capital.

Global Teleshop and MNC Sky Vision will also each sell 20 percent of their total shares, Eddy said. Global Teleshop is a mobile-phone retailer with 314 stores nationwide, while MNC Sky Vision is a TV cable operator that operates the Indovision brand.

Kobexindo Tractor, a heavy equipment distributor, and insurer Asuransi Mitra Maparya insurer each will sell 30 percent of their capital. Trisula is also selling 30 percent of shares, Eddy said. Supra Boga, which operates lifestyle supermarket Ranch Market, aims to raise as much as Rp 300 billion from a 30 percent stake, Investor Daily reported.

Toba Bara, a coal miner founded by military veteran Luhut Panjaitan, is expected to be one of the biggest IPOs this year. Eddy said the company was selling 20 percent of its capital.

Global Teleshop and MNC Sky Vision will also each sell 20 percent of their total shares, Eddy said. Global Teleshop is a mobile-phone retailer with 314 stores nationwide, while MNC Sky Vision is a TV cable operator that operates the Indovision brand.

Kobexindo Tractor, a heavy equipment distributor, and insurer Asuransi Mitra Maparya insurer each will sell 30 percent of their capital. Trisula is also selling 30 percent of shares, Eddy said. Supra Boga, which operates lifestyle supermarket Ranch Market, aims to raise as much as Rp 300 billion from a 30 percent stake, Investor Daily reported.

No.    Name                 Previous          High             low           Last        Change %     Change
1       COMPOSITE           4154.067       4171.674     4144.579      4149.799      -4.27               -0.1
2       MBX                   1187.609       1192.579     1184.432      1185.981      -1.63               -0.14
3       KOMPAS100           931.656         934.974       928.018       929.327       -2.33              -0.25
4       LQ45                   715.399         717.093       710.917       711.679       -3.72               -0.52
5       DBX                          608.622         612.517       605.93        609.437         0.82               0.13
6       JII                              579.4            582.984       577.691       577.941        -1.46              -0.25
7       PEFINDO25            494.034        497.983       489.144       492.235         -1.8                -0.36
8       BISNIS-27            353.35          355.129       352.156        352.484        -0.87              -0.25
9       SRI-KEHATI           216.479        217.355       215.698        215.799        -0.68               -0.31
10     ISSI                    139.062        139.968        139.042       139.159          0.1                 0.07

No.    Name                 Previous          High             low             Last       Change %     Change
1    MINING                        2734.736       2743.548      2714.854      2724.044     -10.69             -0.39
2    AGRI                             2395.108       2412.868      2394.562      2408.325      13.22              0.55
3    MISC-IND                     1350.866       1360.882      1339.033      1339.529     -11.34             -0.84
4    CONSUMER                 1338.304       1341.23        1333.561      1334.746       -3.56             -0.27
5    MANUFACTUR            1024.422       1027.655      1017.728       1018.495       -5.93            -0.58
6    INFRASTRUC                755.673         767.538        755.249         763.444        7.77             1.03
7    TRADE                     730.418         736.088        729.515         732.006        1.59             0.22
8    FINANCE                        520.781         521.363        515.744         517.724       -3.06            -0.59
9    BASIC-IND                     428.898         432.617        428.387         429.21          0.31             0.07
10  PROPERTY                     291.03           295.64         290.878         292.425        1.4               0.48
Around Asia Yesterday

TOKYO -- Tokyo stocks closed lower Tuesday after the Bank of Japan decided to refrain from fresh monetary easing measures, with the key Nikkei index edging down 0.09 percent.
The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average lost 8.24 points from Monday to end at 9,538.02, extending the losing streak to six days. The broader Topix index contracted 0.26 point, or 0.03 percent, to 813.43.The turnover was about 1,139 billion yen (about 14.00 billion U.S. dollars).
HONG KONG -- Hong Kong stocks closed down 236.76 points, or 1. 15 percent, at 20,356.24 on Tuesday.
The benchmark Hang Seng Index traded between 20,297.39 and 20, 472.96. Turnover totaled 49.28 billion HK dollars (about 6.34 billion U.S. dollars). (1 U.S. dollar = 7.77 HK dollars)
SINGAPORE -- The Singapore stock market finished higher on Tuesday, with the benchmark Straits Times Index up 22.34 points, or 0.75 percent, to close at 2,982.44.
A total of 2.43 billion shares changed hands with turnover of 1 billion Singapore dollars (0.79 billion U.S. dollars). Gainers outnumbered losers 253 to 135, while 394 others finished unchanged.
TAIPEI -- Taiwan's share prices closed higher Tuesday with the weighted index up 39.81 points, or 0.52 percent, to close at 7,640. 68.
The local bourse opened at 7,676.73. Turnover totaled 67.80 billion new Taiwan dollars (about 2.30 billion U.S. dollars) during the trading session.
SEOUL -- South Korean stocks closed lower on Thursday.
After regaining the 2,000-point level in early trading, the benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) declined 2.67 points, or 0.13 percent, to close at 1,994.41. Trading volume was heavy at 533 million shares worth 4.82 trillion won (4.23 billion U.S. dollars), with gainers outpacing losers 436 to 383.
VIENTIANE -- The Lao stock market finished on Tuesday with composite index unchanged at 987.62.
A total of 39,771 shares worth about 191 million Lao kip ( about 24,000 U.S. dollars) changed hands at the stock market.
MANILA -- Philippine shares closed 0.33 percent lower Tuesday.
The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index decreased by 16. 63 points to 5,022.29. The all-share index went down by 12.87 points, or 0.38 percent, to 3,416.56.
Trading volume reached 1.09 billion shares worth 4.95 billion pesos (115.60 million U.S. dollars). There were 53 gainers, 95 losers while 48 stocks closed flat.
KUALA LUMPUR -- The Malaysian stock market ended higher here on Tuesday.
The Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) was at 1,597.17, up 5. 89 points or 0.37 percent, and the Emas was at 10,950.07, up 34.72 points or 0.32 percent.
There were 365 gainers, 332 losers and 333 counters traded unchanged.
The turnover increased to 1.11 billion shares valued at 1.58 billion ringgit Malaysia (513.82 million U.S. dollars), compared with 1.08 billion shares valued at 1.08 billion ringgit Malaysia ( 351.45 million U.S. dollars) on Monday.
COLOMBO -- Share prices on the Colombo Stock Exchange closed higher on Tuesday with the key Colombo All Share Price Index decreasing by 0.36 point to close at 5,412.76 points.
A total turnover of 202.79 million rupees (1.66 million U.S. dollars) was recorded during the day with a volume of 13.05 million shares being traded.
JAKARTA -- Indonesian shares closed lower by 4.268 points, or 0.11 percent, to a level of 4,149.799 on Tuesday.
Some 116,975 transactions were booked today, involving 10.775 million lot of shares worth 4.034 trillion rupiah (about 439.3 million U.S. dollars).Gainers led losers 130 to 143 with 105 remained stagnant.

Shayne Heffernan Ph.D.  
Linda Johnson, Business Development Director - Private Client Group, Heffernan Capital Management
3 Raffles Place #07-01
Bharat Building Singapore 048617
Tel: +65 6329 6408 Fax: +65 6329 9699
Email :
Suite 53 Athenee Tower
63 Wireless Road, Lumpini, Pathumwan, Bangkok 10330
New York 347 5th Avenue, Suite 1402-508 NY, NY 10016


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