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ASEAN STOCK WATCH Asean Affairs   25  April  2011

Asean Week Ahead

Shayne Heffernan

www.livetradingnews.com


The Wall St rally has been relatively concentrated and real growth is not evenly distributed, the net result has been a disproportionate distribution of valuations in sectors where growth has already been seen.

I feel that some valuations are beginning to look extreme, and others quality stocks have been overlooked in the recent rally, using the Warren Buffett concept of "what would you pay to own the business" I cannot justify the large price earnings ratios of many companies. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio in the S&P's materials sector is more than 20 times current earnings compared with 16.3 for the whole market however large gaps in valuations have emerged, according to our research.

It is these gaps that are most appealing for investors, those companies the rally has forsaken are the ones that now look most attractive.

Before the financial crisis the consumer and financial sectors benefited from huge credit expansion but now are trading well below a fair value.

Growth in valuations has shifted to industrial, materials and energy stocks that benefit from strong demand in emerging markets, as well as a technology sector boosted by robust demand from businesses, but again that growth has been poorly distributed across the entire market.

Average earnings growth across those sectors amounts to almost 33 percent in the first quarter over a year ago.

That is more than double the estimated growth for the S&P 500 and towers over the 5 percent growth in a financial sector burdened by a weak housing market.

This week investors in those highly valued equities will want to see at least stable performance in developed markets as they gear up this week for a press conference by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Tough questions will be asked about what monetary policy will look like after the Fed's easy money policies come to a close at the end of June.

This week, 180 of the S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings. Of companies that have reported to date, 75 percent beat analysts' expectations. That is just above the average over the last four quarters, but well above the average of 62 percent since 1994.

While earnings are driving ahead at full force, investors will also focus on the first of the Federal Reserve's press conferences. The press briefing on Wednesday is scheduled to start after the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee wraps up its two-day meeting. Bernanke, the Fed chairman, intends to give four press briefings a year.

There will likely be questions raised about the type of monetary policy the Fed will pursue when its $600 billion bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, or QE2 on Wall Street, draws to a close at the end of the June.

The Best Buys at the start of this busy Earnings this week are the undervalued Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT). Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM)

 

 

Valuation Ratios

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
P/E Ratio (TTM) 13.88 6.83 12.01 17.87
P/E High - Last 5 Yrs. 17.15 14.91 25.24 94.04
P/E Low - Last 5 Yrs. 9.22 6.80 13.69 12.35
Beta 0.49 0.94 0.86 1.29
Price to Sales (TTM) 1.12 0.59 9.94 2.26
Price to Book (MRQ) 2.93 0.80 0.88 2.94
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 2.91 0.92 1.03 5.17
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 9.27 4.44 8.31 8.67
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 32.79 11.07 8.59 58.29
% Owned Institutions -- -- -- --

 

Dividends

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Dividend Yield 2.04 2.51 1.74 1.74
Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg. 1.94 1.68 1.23 2.46
Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 8.83 2.09 4.10 -4.01
Payout Ratio(TTM) 27.90 4.19 11.95 41.32

 

Growth Rates

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 17.08 11.56 32.86 7.97
Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 23.39 18.13 33.44 10.69
Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 0.67 11.68 13.85 7.54
EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 45.55 19.12 103.50 50.88
EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 56.19 -- -- --
EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 1.71 4.32 7.06 4.87
Capital Spending - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 14.19 12.82 10.71 3.64

 

Historical Surprises

Sales and Profit Figures in US Dollar (USD)

Earnings and Dividend Figures in US Dollar (USD)

Estimates vs Actual Estimate Actual Difference Surprise %
SALES (in millions)
Quarter Ending Dec-10 99,111.70 105,186.00 6,074.30 6.13
Quarter Ending Sep-10 98,106.30 95,298.00 2,808.29 2.86
Quarter Ending Jun-10 98,329.40 92,486.00 5,843.44 5.94
Quarter Ending Mar-10 97,619.90 90,251.00 7,368.91 7.55
Quarter Ending Dec-09 90,460.40 89,841.00 619.38 0.68
Earnings (per share)
Quarter Ending Dec-10 1.63 1.85 0.22 13.47
Quarter Ending Sep-10 1.39 1.44 0.05 3.52
Quarter Ending Jun-10 1.46 1.60 0.14 9.69
Quarter Ending Mar-10 1.40 1.37 0.03 2.30
Quarter Ending Dec-09 1.19 1.27 0.08 6.61

Consensus Estimates Trend

Sales and Profit Figures in US Dollar (USD)

Earnings and Dividend Figures in US Dollar (USD)



Current 1 Week Ago 1 Month Ago 2 Month Ago 1 Year Ago
SALES (in millions)
Quarter Ending Jun-11 120,917.00 124,425.00 121,950.00 108,292.00 113,356.00
Quarter Ending Sep-11 120,575.00 124,351.00 121,535.00 110,860.00 113,999.00
Year Ending Dec-11 510,626.00 511,574.00 479,972.00 465,568.00 503,609.00
Year Ending Dec-12 540,839.00 543,507.00 491,969.00 490,635.00 536,878.00
Earnings (per share)
Quarter Ending Jun-11 2.14 2.12 1.88 1.81 1.82
Quarter Ending Sep-11 2.10 2.08 1.89 1.82 1.85
Quarter Ending Dec-11 8.26 8.17 7.54 7.15 7.23
Quarter Ending Dec-12 9.18 9.09 8.34 8.07 8.33

 

Valuation Ratios

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
P/E Ratio (TTM) 17.22 35.04 19.13 17.87
P/E High - Last 5 Yrs. 22.73 4.00 1,618.01 94.04
P/E Low - Last 5 Yrs. 15.09 2.31 16.06 12.35
Beta 0.51 0.37 0.53 1.29
Price to Sales (TTM) 2.23 4.09 2.01 2.26
Price to Book (MRQ) 2.81 0.39 1.36 2.94
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) -- 0.10 8.21 5.17
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 12.72 30.86 11.91 8.67
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 36.29 3.12 8.83 58.29
% Owned Institutions -- -- -- --

 

Dividends

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Dividend Yield 3.32 2.31 1.86 1.74
Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg. 2.54 0.37 1.31 2.46
Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 11.81 1.55 9.88 -4.01
Payout Ratio(TTM) 48.64 6.35 58.03 41.32

 

Growth Rates

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 1.52 11.65 7.10 7.97
Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 3.63 12.64 6.94 10.69
Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 8.21 1.28 12.00 7.54
EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 10.02 18.91 22.38 50.88
EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 4.50 -- -- --
EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 9.13 0.80 8.99 4.87
Capital Spending - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 7.06 2.42 11.58 3.64

 

Historical Surprises

Sales and Profit Figures in US Dollar (USD)

Earnings and Dividend Figures in US Dollar (USD)

Estimates vs Actual Estimate Actual Difference Surprise %
SALES (in millions)
Quarter Ending Dec-10 21,584.70 21,347.00 237.72 1.10
Quarter Ending Sep-10 20,232.70 20,122.00 110.71 0.55
Quarter Ending Jun-10 19,102.10 18,926.00 176.07 0.92
Quarter Ending Mar-10 19,526.00 19,178.00 347.99 1.78
Quarter Ending Dec-09 21,023.40 21,027.00 3.58 0.02
Earnings (per share)



Quarter Ending Dec-10 1.10 1.13 0.03 2.81
Quarter Ending Sep-10 1.00 1.02 0.02 2.41
Quarter Ending Jun-10 0.73 0.71 0.02 2.77
Quarter Ending Mar-10 0.82 0.89 0.07 9.06
Quarter Ending Dec-09 1.43 1.49 0.06 4.33

 

Consensus Estimates Trend

Sales and Profit Figures in US Dollar (USD)

Earnings and Dividend Figures in US Dollar (USD)



Current 1 Week Ago 1 Month Ago 2 Month Ago 1 Year Ago
SALES (in millions)
Quarter Ending Jun-11 20,392.10 20,345.80 20,254.00 20,234.50 20,548.10
Quarter Ending Sep-11 21,439.50 21,451.80 21,288.60 21,228.10 21,984.40
Year Ending Dec-11 82,172.90 82,109.00 81,993.20 82,015.50 82,982.90
Year Ending Dec-12 86,370.10 86,192.90 85,895.70 85,890.20 87,532.10
Earnings (per share)




Quarter Ending Jun-11 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.89
Quarter Ending Sep-11 1.15 1.16 1.16 1.15 1.24
Quarter Ending Dec-11 3.96 3.96 3.97 3.98 4.05
Quarter Ending Dec-12 4.34 4.34 4.35 4.37 4.47
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)

 

Valuation Ratios

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
P/E Ratio (TTM) 10.81 23.63 17.54 17.87
P/E High - Last 5 Yrs. 20.71 150.87 64.79 94.04
P/E Low - Last 5 Yrs. 10.95 19.85 12.41 12.35
Beta 1.06 0.86 0.97 1.29
Price to Sales (TTM) 3.22 2.63 3.45 2.26
Price to Book (MRQ) 4.42 4.05 3.85 2.94
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 6.13 7.31 4.74 5.17
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 9.25 13.09 9.02 8.67
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 11.65 50.14 35.13 58.29
% Owned Institutions -- -- -- --

 

Dividends

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Dividend Yield 2.51 2.42 1.63 1.74
Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg. 1.76 1.73 1.33 2.46
Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 10.20 5.59 11.54 -4.01
Payout Ratio(TTM) 24.13 20.51 22.58 41.32

 

Growth Rates

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 4.89 21.35 -10.05 7.97
Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 13.63 10.38 19.93 10.69
Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 9.45 13.66 17.86 7.54
EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 4.01 13.28 508.79 50.88
EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 29.84 -- -- --
EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 13.34 8.45 15.47 4.87
Capital Spending - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 19.48 17.57 7.94 3.64

 

Historical Surprises

Sales and Profit Figures in US Dollar (USD)

Earnings and Dividend Figures in US Dollar (USD)

 

Estimates vs Actual Estimate Actual Difference Surprise %
SALES (in millions)
Quarter Ending Dec-10 19,146.90 19,953.00 806.15 4.21
Quarter Ending Sep-10 15,802.30 16,195.00 392.67 2.48
Quarter Ending Jun-10 15,290.90 16,039.00 748.11 4.89
Quarter Ending Mar-10 14,478.30 14,503.00 24.68 0.17
Quarter Ending Dec-09 17,858.20 19,022.00 1,163.76 6.52
Earnings (per share)



Quarter Ending Dec-10 0.68 0.77 0.09 12.57
Quarter Ending Sep-10 0.55 0.62 0.07 12.97
Quarter Ending Jun-10 0.47 0.51 0.04 9.68
Quarter Ending Mar-10 0.42 0.45 0.03 6.18
Quarter Ending Dec-09 0.59 0.74 0.15 25.19

 

Consensus Estimates Trend

Sales and Profit Figures in US Dollar (USD)

Earnings and Dividend Figures in US Dollar (USD)


Current 1 Week Ago 1 Month Ago 2 Month Ago 1 Year Ago
SALES (in millions)
Quarter Ending Jun-11 17,392.80 17,384.40 17,420.80 17,402.20 16,391.10
Quarter Ending Sep-11 17,461.70 17,461.70 17,497.80 17,561.40 17,309.00
Year Ending Dec-11 69,658.50 69,666.60 69,758.80 69,750.50 66,173.20
Year Ending Dec-12 74,136.00 74,136.50 74,148.10 74,167.10 71,110.60
Earnings (per share)




Quarter Ending Jun-11 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.54
Quarter Ending Sep-11 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.67 0.58
Quarter Ending Dec-11 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.23
Quarter Ending Dec-12 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.43

 

In Asia Currencies are looking like a great investment, Singapore’s dollar is trading a record and in my opinion will hit parity with the USD by 2015. The Malaysia’s ringgit is at a 13-year high, on speculation regional central banks will keep raising borrowing costs to curb inflation. The Thai Baht is again below 30 to the dollar.

These currencies will continue to strengthen and are another good reason to by stocks in Asia.

In Thailand

Thailand listed real estate firms are extremely undervalued at the moment Sansiri, Supalai, Asian Property, Apex Developments are quality companies with strong balance sheets and a very positive outlook.

Real estate and construction businesses reported revenue for 2010 with income over 3 trillion baht and a total profit of 35 billion baht. Italian-Thai Development PCL revenue was up to 36,676 million baht.

Thirty five housing developers had combined earnings of 1.61 billion, an increase of 16 percent, and profits jumped more than 26 percent to over 23 billion baht. Ranking first in profits was Land And House with 3,876 million and Pruksa ranked first for earnings at 23,406 million.

In the property sector and the construction sector, not including building materials, 62 companies in 2010 had revenues from operations at more than 3.07 billion baht, an increase of 2.72% from 2009 with revenue valued at more than 2.99 billion baht, while the profit from the operations of all companies was equivalent to 35,261.90 million baht, up 39.13 percent from 2009 with total profits of 25,343.62 million baht.

For the past year, considering only a total of about 35 residential real estate development companies, there was a total combined revenue of more than 1.61 billion baht, an increase of 16.18 percent from 2010’s income of 1.39 billion baht. Profit was set at 23,314.16 million, up 26.43% from 2009’s value of 18,439.10 million. The top three companies in terms of gross revenue were Pruksa, Sansiri PCL and Land and House PCL. The top three most profitable companies were Land and House, Pruksa and Supalai PCL. In construction, the top three highest grossing were Italian-Thai Development, CH Karnchang PCL and Sino-Thai Engineering & Construction PCL. The top three highest earning contractors were Sino-Thai, Christiani & Nielsen and Toyo-Thai Corporation PCL.

However, during the past year many companies growth performance increase but at the same time many companies also loss from operations especially five residential development companies with its operating losses were Golden Land Property Development Ltd. (Thailand) loss more than 285 million, Living and Capital PCL (Thailand) loss more than 148 million, Grand Canal Land PCL (Thailand) loss 86.25 million baht, Everland PCL loss 39.10 million and KC Property PCL loss around 8.31 million.

For building contractor with operating losses were Ch. Karnchang PCL loss more than 319.27, Scan Global PCL, with its performance up to 3rd Quarter in 2010 losses more than 94.72 million and EMC PCL loss more than 71.35 million.

Sansiri Public Company Limited (Sansiri) is a Thailand-based company engaged in real estate business. The Company is principally engaged in property development with its properties consisting of land and housing projects, residential condominium projects, serviced apartments for rent, and office buildings for rent. Other activities include the provision of building management service and real estate brokerage and provision of other services, such as hotel, medical spa and education business. In addition, Sansiri operates a school under the name Satit Pattana School. As of December 31, 2009, the Company operates a 46-key hotel named Casa del Mare, locating on the area of 3 Rai 2 Ngan and 51 Square Wah in Hua Hin District of Prachuap Kiri Khan province. It also operates medical spa business through its subsidiary, Papanan Limited under the brand S Medical Spa. It has 18 subsidiaries.

 

Valuation Ratios

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
P/E Ratio (TTM) 4.54 26.36 18.56 17.85
P/E High - Last 5 Yrs. 11.67 66.62 140.99 88.85
P/E Low - Last 5 Yrs. 2.77 14.05 106.55 12.28
Beta 1.13 1.41 1.21 1.31
Price to Sales (TTM) 0.46 5.15 10.57 2.20
Price to Book (MRQ) 0.90 0.93 1.17 3.05
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 0.93 1.09 1.41 5.42
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 4.01 12.14 16.14 64.97
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 10.75 4.14 59.63
% Owned Institutions -- -- -- --

 

Dividends

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Dividend Yield 2.07 1.29 1.85 1.69
Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg. 7.63 0.75 1.63 2.48
Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 26.58 10.18 8.30 -5.00
Payout Ratio(TTM) 40.38 35.61 19.52 42.82

 

Growth Rates

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 39.61 31.25 17.33 10.10
Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 17.52 24.94 12.38 10.40
Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 13.41 25.82 19.26 7.38
EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 2,784.93 301.43 83.02 77.89
EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 90.82 -- -- --
EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 15.70 28.52 10.14 4.57
Capital Spending - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 51.79 26.59 10.53 3.52

 

Supalai Public Company Limited operates property development business. The Company develops single houses, condominiums and apartment buildings for sale and rental. Additionally, the Company owns and operates the Supalai Pasak Resort Hotel.

Earnings Fundamentals
Earnings 1.490 Shares (Millions) 1,716.553
Price/Earnings (Trailing) 7.651 Market Cap (Millions) 19,568.710
Relative P/E 0.551 ROE 30.977

0.551 Last Dividend Reported 0.270 Final
0.551 Dividend Yield (ttm) 5.702
0.551 Relative Dividend Yield 1.547
0.551 90-Day Volatility 39.148
0.551 Beta vs. SET 0.946

Asian Property Development Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based company engaged in the property development business. The Company focuses on the development and sales of residential projects that serve the needs of middle to high income markets, including townhouses, single detached houses and condominiums. It operates residential projects under the brands Baan Klang Krung, Baan Klang Muang, The City, THE ADDRESS, Life, Rhythm and others, which all are located in the Bangkok metropolitan areas and its surroundings.

As of December 31, 2010, the Company had 10 subsidiaries: Asian Property (Bangkok) Company Limited, Asian Property Company Limited, The Value Property Development Company Limited, Signatures Advisory Partners Company Limited, Trillion Development Company Limited, Bangkok Smart City Company Limited, Asian Property (Sukhumvit) Company Limited, Smart Service & Management Company Limited, AP (Ratchada) Company Limited and AP (Sathorn) Company Limited.

 

Valuation Ratios

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
P/E Ratio (TTM) 6.37 26.36 18.56 17.85
P/E High - Last 5 Yrs. 16.49 66.62 140.99 88.85
P/E Low - Last 5 Yrs. 3.39 14.05 106.55 12.28
Beta 1.63 1.41 1.21 1.31
Price to Sales (TTM) 1.02 5.15 10.57 2.20
Price to Book (MRQ) 1.49 0.93 1.17 3.05
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 1.56 1.09 1.41 5.42
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 5.89 12.14 16.14 64.97
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 10.75 4.14 59.63
% Owned Institutions -- -- -- --

 

Dividends

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Dividend Yield 2.98 1.29 1.85 1.69
Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg. 4.36 0.75 1.63 2.48
Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 9.86 10.18 8.30 -5.00
Payout Ratio(TTM) 33.54 35.61 19.52 42.82

 

Growth Rates

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago -11.99 31.25 17.33 10.10
Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 9.60 24.94 12.38 10.40
Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 21.36 25.82 19.26 7.38
EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago -24.36 301.43 83.02 77.89
EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 14.95 -- -- --
EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 22.94 28.52 10.14 4.57
Capital Spending - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 18.80 26.59 10.53 3.52

 

Apex Development Public Company Limited, is headquartered at 10/53 2nd Floor, The Trendy Building, Sukhumvit 13, Sukhumvit Road, Wattana District, Bangkok. The former name was Suntech Group Public Company Limited which the court authorized on April 30, 2007 to be released from its rehabilitation plan and to return to normal commercial business.

In August of 2007, the company increased its registered capital via a new group of investors led by Mr. Pongphan Sampawakoop, who bought 836,000,000 shares or 78 % of the outstanding shares.

The new group changed the company name to “Apex Development Public Company Limited” and changed the business category to the “property development” sector with its SET symbol as APX. Apex’s new executive management team is led by Mr. Pongphan Sampawakoop who has more than 30 years experience in property development whose its goal is to maximize growth and profit for stock holders. The company has now started several property development projects according to its new objective.

In late 2007, Apex undertook three new projects in its new resort, White Sand Beach in a new five-star location at Jomtien Beach, Pattaya, (at Sukhumwit Road km. 156.5). Covering an area of 30 rai, this luxury complex has direct access to Sukhumwit Road and a beautiful white sandy beach. The resort comprises three main projects:

Mövenpick Spinnaker Residences – Beachfront High-rise Condominium with Utmost Privacy and Panoramic Ocean View

Mövenpick Resort & Spa – True Excellence In Swiss Hospitality Mövenpick Pool Villas - Absolute Modern & Convenient Living.

In Singapore

Keppel Land Ltd SIN:K17 has been upgraded to a strong buy with a 2012 price target of $8SGD issued by Shayne Heffernan today.

Singapore’s K-REIT Asia said first quarter distribution per unit (DPU) rose 35 percent from a year ago, helped by contributions from recently acquired properties.

The DPU for the three months ended March 31 was 1.79 Singapore cents, up from 1.33 Singapore cents in the year-earlier period.

K-REIT said its net property income for the quarter rose 7.6 percent to S$14.9 million, as contributions from recently acquired properties offset the loss of income from two divested Singapore office buildings.

At the end of the first quarter, K-REIT had an asset size of about S$3.5 billion ($2.8 billion), comprising four commercial properties in Singapore and two in Australia.

K-REIT is managed by Keppel Land , Singapore’s third largest developer.

Keppel Land Limited is a holding, management and investment company. The principal activities of its subsidiary companies consist of property investment and development, fund management and property related services.

As an office developer in Singapore, Keppel Land contributes to defining and refining the city’s skyline with landmark developments, such as Ocean Financial Centre and Marina Bay Financial Centre in the Central Business District. Keppel Land is also Asia’s premier home developer with waterfront homes at Keppel Bay and Marina Bay.


Valuation Ratios

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
P/E Ratio (TTM) 5.95 16.28 16.51 17.87
P/E High - Last 5 Yrs. 24.89 19.12 112.23 94.04
P/E Low - Last 5 Yrs. 5.38 3.93 85.08 12.35
Beta 2.04 0.40 0.99 1.29
Price to Sales (TTM) 6.46 6.35 4.47 2.26
Price to Book (MRQ) 1.52 1.82 1.46 2.94
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 1.51 2.67 1.89 5.17
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 5.76 13.79 8.54 8.67
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 1.82 2.74 58.29
% Owned Institutions -- -- -- --

 

Dividends

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Dividend Yield 2.04 1.40 1.77 1.74
Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg. 1.99 0.20 1.30 2.46
Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 20.40 2.71 6.95 -4.01
Payout Ratio(TTM) 24.32 12.97 15.73 41.32

 

Growth Rates

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 236.13 33.17 23.35 7.97
Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 12.06 11.19 12.91 10.69
Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 6.20 7.81 16.34 7.54
EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 43.25 157.20 82.93 50.88
EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 198.41 -- -- --
EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 36.25 8.42 9.04 4.87
Capital Spending - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 126.58 7.85 8.19 3.64

 

In Indonesia In a note to traders today Bakrie Sumatera Plantations was described as being extremely undervalued. Shayne Heffernan noted that with a current PE under 4 and strong regional growth Bakrie Sumatera Plantations could rally over 200% in the coming year. Shayne Heffernan raised his 2012 price target for the group is 1000 IDR. Shayne Heffernan has lifted his outlook from strong buy to a Must Own on Bakrie Sumatera Plantations and confirmed a price target of 1000 Rupiah. (see original)

The company has approximately 100,000ha of plantations under its management (including plasma estates and Agri Resources BV). Approximately 20,000ha of the planted area is devoted to rubber plantations whilst the remaining land is planted with oil palms.

All of the group’s plantations operations are ISO14001 certified, which ensures stringent controls on environmental management in its estate, mills and factories. The company was also admitted as a member of the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) since May 2007 and the RSPO principles will further guide the group’s environmental management policies.

Palm oil producer PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations said today it recorded a 2010 net profit of 787.34 billion rupiah

($89.34 million), up 211.5 percent from 252.78 billion rupiah in 2009, as revenues were up 27 percent to 2.95 trillion rupiah from 2.32 trillion rupiah.

The largest contribution came from sales of crude palm oil (62.03 percent) that reached 1.83 trillion rupiah, up 37.6 percent from 1.68 trillion rupiah in 2009.

The company also plans to issue global bonds worth $200 million that will be used to pay debts that will mature in November.


Valuation Ratios

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
P/E Ratio (TTM) 3.45 5.13 19.20 17.96
P/E High - Last 5 Yrs. 32.70 69.87 1,647.89 94.04
P/E Low - Last 5 Yrs. 5.85 14.17 16.07 12.35
Beta 1.82 0.87 0.53 1.29
Price to Sales (TTM) 1.65 1.08 2.02 2.26
Price to Book (MRQ) 0.59 0.73 2.78 2.94
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 1.04 1.01 9.61 5.88
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 3.62 2.71 11.97 8.91
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 13.31 88.80 8.87 58.35
% Owned Institutions -- -- -- --

 

Dividends

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Dividend Yield 1.04 1.70 1.86 1.74
Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg. 1.17 1.10 1.31 2.46
Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate -5.92 1.80 9.88 -4.01
Payout Ratio(TTM) 6.24 5.44 58.24 41.58

 

Growth Rates

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 62.12 9.89 7.12 7.98
Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 29.21 8.57 6.88 10.23
Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 27.74 15.06 11.99 7.54
EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 1,087.07 39.64 25.73 50.88
EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 105.11 -- -- --
EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 8.42 9.51 8.97 4.87
Capital Spending - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 48.79 35.84 11.55 3.64

 

BRICS

Brazil and Hong Kong are going to be the fastest growing BRICS exchanges for the next few months as China shuffles their monetary policy and India overcomes internal challenges. Russia and South Africa are good 2-3year investments.

In Brazil

Brazil listed Bradespar SA has been upgraded to a Must Own at HCM with a 2012 price target of 70 Reals issued by Shayne Heffernan today.

Bradespar SA is a Brazil-based investment holding company. It invests in companies that are engaged in the energy and real estate sectors, among others.

As of December 31, 2009, the Company held shares in various companies, including Millennium Security Holdings Corp, Brumado Holdings Ltda, Antares Holdings Ltda and Valepar SA. The Company is also involved in mining activities and the generation of electric energy, through Vale SA and CPFL Energia SA. Its major shareholder is a group comprising Cidade de Deus Companhia Comercial de Participacoes, Fundacao Bradesco, NCF Participacoes SA and Nova Cidade de Deus Participacoes SA.

Bradespar maintains representatives on the Boards of Directors of its investees, thereby ensuring that the best corporate governance practices are implemented and followed. The Company also maintains a presence on Audit, Fiscal, Financial, Operational and Human Resources Committees, among others

Members in the Board of Director


# Members Total # Members Bradespar
VALEPAR 12 3main
VALE 11 2

For Bradespar, ensuring that there are mechanisms in place to guarantee the liquidity of its current investments when the time is ripe for diverstment is as important as an active participation in the companies in which it has invested.

These stakeholdings refer to strategic holdings, capable of providing the company with better gains than what would be earned based on the pricing reflected in the transaction of the stock market.

 

Valuation Ratios

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
P/E Ratio (TTM) 8.30 64.17 25.86 17.96
P/E High - Last 5 Yrs. 13.81 380.99 86.23 94.04
P/E Low - Last 5 Yrs. 5.59 101.47 25.01 12.35
Beta 1.18 1.08 1.22 1.29
Price to Sales (TTM) 3.10 3.38 2.56 2.26
Price to Book (MRQ) 2.16 0.38 3.16 2.94
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 2.83 0.47 3.27 5.88
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 7.10 70.19 22.93 8.91
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 20.42 8.04 29.39 58.35
% Owned Institutions -- -- -- --

 

Dividends

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Dividend Yield 1.88 1.01 0.92 1.74
Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg. 3.07 1.04 1.47 2.46
Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 13.86 6.77 17.45 -4.01
Payout Ratio(TTM) 17.39 9.88 13.90 41.58

 

Growth Rates

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 130.15 24.28 43.33 7.98
Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 71.43 21.71 21.86 10.23
Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 9.50 18.27 13.60 7.54
EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 278.00 52.06 86.36 50.18
EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 81.48 -- -- --
EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 22.55 10.41 25.25 4.87
Capital Spending - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 16.76 37.23 19.89 3.64

 

In Hong Kong

Swire Pacific HKG:0019, Allan International Holdings Ltd HKG:0684, Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Ltd HKG:0682

Swire Pacific Limited is a holding company. The Company operates in five segments: Property, Aviation, Beverages, Marine Services, and Trading & Industrial. Swire Properties Limited’s (Swire Properties) investment portfolio in Hong Kong principally consists of office and retail premises, as well as serviced apartments, hotel interests and other residential accommodation.

The Beverages division manufactures, markets and distributes the products of The Coca-Cola Company. The marine services division operates a fleet of specialist vessels, supporting the offshore oil industry.

 

Valuation Ratios

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
P/E Ratio (TTM) 4.74 4.13 14.90 17.79
P/E High - Last 5 Yrs. 13.80 37.69 66.90 93.10
P/E Low - Last 5 Yrs. 5.03 17.29 14.31 12.33
Beta 0.88 1.34 1.13 1.30
Price to Sales (TTM) 6.07 0.37 1.42 2.24
Price to Book (MRQ) 0.89 0.58 1.08 3.11
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 0.89 0.71 1.45 5.60
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 4.41 3.32 10.41 60.71
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 8.66 32.75 59.80
% Owned Institutions -- -- -- --

 

Dividends

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Dividend Yield 2.90 1.03 1.33 1.74
Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg. 3.16 1.09 1.18 2.48
Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 11.18 10.59 9.26 -4.46
Payout Ratio(TTM) 13.77 5.35 17.66 45.15

 

Growth Rates

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 26.22 4.98 12.02 10.11
Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 17.23 5.52 7.24 10.58
Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 9.05 6.12 8.01 7.48
EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 45.66 75.14 133.51 76.20
EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 92.06 -- -- --
EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 15.72 25.22 12.76 4.71
Capital Spending - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 14.12 15.91 3.51

Allan International

Allan International Holdings Limited is a Hong Kong-based investment holding company that provides corporate management services.

The Company’s subsidiaries include Allan Electric Mfg., Limited., Allan International Limited., Allan Mould Manufacturing Limited., Allan Plastic Mfg., Limited., Allan Toys Manufacturing Limited., Artreal Manufactory Limited., Conan Electric Manufacturing Limited., Electrical Investments Limited., Ever Sources Investment Limited., Global Express (HK) Limited., Great Yield Limited, Progress Associates Limited and Ngai Shing (Far East) Plastic & Metalwares Factory Limited. The principal activities of its subsidiaries include manufacturing and trading of household electrical appliances and plastic parts, investment holding, development of moulds and trading of precision components, investment in securities, property holding and provision of sub-contracting services.

 

Valuation Ratios

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
P/E Ratio (TTM) 6.59 15.14 10.44 17.79
P/E High - Last 5 Yrs. 9.48 44.81 40.58 93.10
P/E Low - Last 5 Yrs. 2.57 13.05 10.00 12.33
Beta 0.92 0.70 0.94 1.30
Price to Sales (TTM) 0.64 1.01 1.16 2.24
Price to Book (MRQ) 1.64 1.03 0.54 3.11
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 1.71 2.99 0.66 5.60
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 5.63 12.17 4.19 60.71
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 11.03 8.58 59.80
% Owned Institutions -- -- -- --

 

Dividends

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Dividend Yield 5.93 1.27 0.94 1.74
Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg. 9.53 1.10 1.23 2.48
Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate 23.52 9.68 0.30 -4.46
Payout Ratio(TTM) 39.04 15.84 8.01 45.15

 

Growth Rates

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 23.08 12.25 1,271.78 10.11
Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 12.03 12.32 4.16 10.58
Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 18.06 8.85 10.42 7.48
EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 9.60 43.85 112.56 76.20
EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 45.92 -- -- --
EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 39.74 14.95 3.66 4.71
Capital Spending - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 4.32 6.57 1.32 3.51

 

Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Ltd HKG:0682 Chaoda Modern Agriculture (Holdings) Limited is an investment holding company. The Company, along with its subsidiaries, is engaged in producing and selling agricultural produce. The Company has set up 31 production bases which are widely spread at 13 provinces in China, including Jilin, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, Hubei, Hunan and Shaanxi.

The Company’s core business is growing and selling of agricultural produce. The Company exports most of its fresh produce to Japan, South Korea and other parts of Asia while frozen food exports go to Japan, North America, Europe and the Middle East. It supplies frozen fruits and vegetables to retailers, food processors, and the food service industry in Europe, North America, the Middle East and Japan. In addition to agricultural produce, the Company also breeds and sells livestock, including Boer goats, Dorper sheep and dairy cattle.

 

Valuation Ratios

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
P/E Ratio (TTM) 3.70 10.70 17.66 17.79
P/E High - Last 5 Yrs. 11.24 69.50 1,609.22 93.10
P/E Low - Last 5 Yrs. 3.81 14.16 15.41 12.33
Beta 0.71 0.88 0.53 1.30
Price to Sales (TTM) 1.89 1.56 1.95 2.24
Price to Book (MRQ) 0.58 0.75 2.74 3.11
Price to Tangible Book (MRQ) 0.80 1.04 9.59 5.60
Price to Cash Flow (TTM) 3.12 5.11 11.18 60.71
Price to Free Cash Flow (TTM) 4.12 4.42 8.66 59.80
% Owned Institutions -- -- -- --

 

Dividends

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Dividend Yield 1.76 1.68 1.87 1.74
Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg. 0.97 1.09 1.21 2.48
Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate -13.18 1.79 9.33 -4.46
Payout Ratio(TTM) 6.68 15.20 58.36 45.15

 

Growth Rates

Company Industry Sector S&P 500
Sales (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 18.49 10.43 7.16 10.11
Sales (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 16.40 9.07 6.87 10.58
Sales - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 25.48 15.38 11.93 7.48
EPS (MRQ) vs Qtr. 1 Yr. Ago 3.65 39.88 29.70 76.20
EPS (TTM) vs TTM 1 Yr. Ago 5.56 -- -- --
EPS - 5 Yr. Growth Rate 17.41 9.43 8.67 4.71
Capital Spending - 5 Yr. Growth Rate

 

 

Shayne Heffernan brings more than 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over US$500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of US$15billion. He has managed and overseen start-ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.


 


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AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

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