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Asean Affairs   17 November  2012

Expanding Military to Military Engagement: China and Thailand

By Ernie Bower and Alexandra Sander

As U.S. Defense Secretary Panetta turns north from Australia on his way to Thailand and Cambodia today, he should carefully consider the trends in China’s military to military relationship with Thailand.  Developments reveal Chinese acumen and determination to expand security ties where they see opportunities created by perceived American missteps, China’s intent to use pages from the United States playbook for institutionalizing military engagement in Southeast Asia, and the development of a regional new-normal, namely ASEAN militaries seeking to balance relationships with a range of regional partners, including the United States and China.

The Sino-Thai military to military relationship has gained significant ground since the Asian financial crisis which first manifested itself in Bangkok in 1997.  At the time, a fast growing China perceived an opportunity to expand its influence in Thailand and Southeast Asia when the United States was perceived to be less than fully understanding in backing International Monetary Fund (IMF) prescriptions for Thailand and other hard-hit Southeast Asian countries.

China set its sights on expanding its military influence with the country with the oldest alliance with the United States in Asia, Thailand.  The effort is consistent with Chinese objectives to expand cooperation and influence with regional militaries in Southeast Asia. China’s goals in strengthening its security relationship with Thailand and the desire for increased military-to-military engagement are mutual. This move makes sense for Beijing; China’s economic growth is accompanied in the 21st century by a drive to modernize and build up the capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army. Expanding ties with a significant regional player like Thailand is a smart move for both countries.

China saw additional opportunities and openness from the Thai military after the ambiguous US diplomatic response to the 2006 coup that ousted then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.  Chinese military support and engagement has a near-term competitive advantage in such instances namely that is unburdened by foreign policy concerns and values such as human rights and democracy.  As the United States focused on fighting wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, China focused on building its relationships in Southeast Asia.

China has rapidly increased arm sales, training and joint exercises with Thailand since the late 1990’s.  Expanding Sino-Thai military to military relations indicates Bangkok is looking for more opportunities to develop the Royal Thai Armed Forces and modernize its resources. Thailand looks to China for more affordable military technology, procured without the cumbersome U.S. review processes and without related governance and oversight requirements.

In addition to arms sales, China has begun to use techniques employed for years but the United States to institutional engagement such as expanding military training for Thai officers in China, comparable but not near equivalent to the United States International Military Education and Training (IMET).  China has also developed a proactive joint training schedule.  Experts report that there is a growing sense among the Thai military that the Chinese understand their needs better than the Americans do on a certain practical level. This has led to the sense among some that while American military colleagues are “our cousins,” Chinese counterparts are closer to “brothers.”

While China has often contentious relationships with some of its Southeast Asian neighbors, especially Vietnam and the Philippines, China and Thailand have a strong bilateral relationship due to their relatively benign history. In the 1970s, Bangkok sought a strategic alignment with Beijing to contain Vietnam’s influence in Cambodia. Following Vietnam’s withdrawal, the Sino-Thai relationship transitioned to one primarily based on trade and investment.

Former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra sought to expand military engagement with China while he was in power: in 2001, Thailand was the first ASEAN member to establish annual defense and security talks with China and in 2005 the Royal Thai Armed Forces was the first Southeast Asian military to conduct combined exercises with the People’s Liberation Army.  After the 2006 military coup ousting Thaksin from power, the United States suspended several military programs in Thailand and China took the opportunity to further expand its security relationship with Thailand.

China and Thailand have further increased their military ties in terms of exchanges and arms sales. China participated as an observer for the first time in the U.S.-Thai Cobra Gold military exercise in 2008, which includes a number of Asia Pacific militaries. China and Thailand have expanded the frequency and scope of bilateral military exercises and exchanges and current Thai prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra has maintained this trend. Yingluck led a high-level delegation to Beijing in April 2012, during which the two countries signed a five-year Joint Action Plan on China-Thailand Strategic Cooperation.

As Mr. Panetta flies into Bangkok, he should be developing arguments to convince budget-cutting bureaucrats on Capitol Hill and in the Pentagon to ensure the United States military remains a strong, committed and consistent partner.  The United States cannot afford to take its security relationship with Thailand or other ASEAN countries for granted, but neither should it oppose China’s developing security relationships. Instead of challenging China in this arena, the United States should reinforce its engagement, continue to invest and continue to press China and other regional militaries to professionalize planning, publicize strategic white papers and engage in regional architecture such as the ASEAN Defense Minister Meeting Plus.

Regional militaries need and should have good relations with their Chinese counterparts.  That is good for long term regional stability and peace, and therefore directly in the interests of the United States.  In fact, opposing such cooperation would undercut US influence over the long term.  Military engagement between states, as engagement in other areas, bolsters regional peace, security, and transparency between governments by reducing chances for miscalculation and miscues between militaries. The United States needs to ensure that it continues to play a leading role in these efforts.

Mr. Ernest Z. Bower is senior adviser and holds the Chair for Southeast Asia Studies at CSIS. Ms. Alexandra Sander is a researcher with the Chair for Southeast Asia Studies.

Courtesy: This post originally appeared on the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington D.C. cogitASIA blog
Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta Visits
Australia, Thailand, and Cambodia
By Elke Larsen and Alexandra Sander

November 14, 2012

Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta left on November 11 for his fourth trip this year to the Asia-Pacific region, with scheduled stops in Australia, Thailand, and Cambodia. Panetta attended the U.S.-Australian Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) in Perth with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. He will continue on to Bangkok before attending the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Defense Ministers’ Meeting (ADMM) in Phnom Penh. His trip is designed to advance the United States’ “long-term strategy of rebalancing with the Asia-Pacific,” according to Department of Defense press secretary George Little. The trip comes just days before President Barack Obama’s trip to the region and will reinforce the U.S. commitment to the Asia-Pacific region, including to two of its long-standing regional allies, Australia and Thailand.

Q1: What can we expect from Panetta’s three-country trip?

A1: During his trip, Secretary Panetta will showcase the United States’ commitment to the Asia Pacific. His attendance at both AUSMIN and the ADMM emphasizes the importance of regional architectures that promote peace and stability, as well as the United States’ dedication to such organizations. Panetta’s visit will fortify the United States’ long-term strategic goals in the Asia Pacific, including the transition from the Cold War practice of maintaining permanent military bases to a system of rotational deployments and joint training and exercises with partner countries. This new trend is already visible in the deployment of U.S. Marines to Australia and increased joint exercises in the region, including the expansion of Exercise Cobra Gold in Thailand.

Q2: What is AUSMIN?

A2: AUSMIN is the principal annual summit held to discuss the Australia-U.S. alliance, which began with the 1951 signing of the ANZUS Treaty and has substantially deepened since that time. For this year’s 2012 AUSMIN in Perth, Secretaries Panetta and Clinton were joined by their Australian counterparts, Foreign Minister Bob Carr and Defense Minister Stephen Smith.

The 2012 AUSMIN agenda covered Asia-Pacific and global security; the importance of regional institutions, including the East Asia Summit, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation, and Association of Southeast Asian Nations; global development efforts; and bilateral defense cooperation.

Overall, Australia is one of the United States’ strongest allies and supporters. It is likely that the outcomes of AUSMIN 2012 will continue to support a strong U.S. presence in the Asia Pacific in order to ensure regional stability. Australia’s nonpermanent seat on the UN Security Council and membership in the G-20 also suggest that the strategies that emerge from AUSMIN 2012 will have a strong global focus.

Q3: Why is the U.S.-Thailand alliance important and how will Panetta’s trip impact it?

A3: Secretary Panetta’s trip will reinforce recent efforts to improve relations between the two countries and pave the way for deeper cooperation in the coming years. He will be the first top defense official from the United States to visit the country since 2008, a sign of the mutual effort to inject new attention into the relationship.

Thailand is the United States’ longest-standing Asian ally, with a partnership lasting nearly 180 years. In 2003, President George W. Bush designated Thailand a major non-NATO ally. The U.S.-Thai relationship is based on shared values and a history of cooperation on regional and international issues such as terrorism, piracy, human trafficking, and nuclear nonproliferation. The United States temporarily halted military support to Thailand following the 2006 coup that ousted then–Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and Thai-U.S. relations declined as domestic issues plagued Bangkok. In August 2011, Yingluck Shinawatra became the first democratically elected prime minister since the coup, and the political situation has largely stabilized, allowing both the United States and Thailand to refocus attention on the alliance.

Senior delegations from the United States and Thailand met on October 18 at the Pentagon to conduct the U.S.-Thailand Defense Strategic Talks, releasing a joint statement emphasizing both countries’ commitment to strengthening the Asia-Pacific security environment.

Thailand plays an exceedingly important role as a U.S. ally and strategic partner in the Asia-Pacific region. The Southeast Asian democracy is a key driver of ASEAN’s evolution and is a crucial component of U.S. engagement with the organization. Additionally, Thailand facilitates military-to-military engagement between the United States and regional players by hosting the annual Cobra Gold military exercise, increasing transparency between governments, and reducing the likelihood of conflict due to miscues and miscommunication.

Q4: What can we expect from the meetings in Cambodia?

A4: In conjunction with the East Asia Summit, November 18–20, the ADMM will be held November 15–17 in Siem Reap, Cambodia. Secretary Panetta will travel to Cambodia on November 16 and meet with his ASEAN counterparts, including Cambodian defense minister Tea Banh. Panetta is expected to discuss areas of mutual cooperation between the United States and Cambodia, as well as broader regional strategy. In a November 12 statement, Panetta said he wanted to “deepen and modernize our existing partnerships and alliances” and emphasized the importance of regional institutions and ASEAN in particular. Sensitive issues like territorial disputes in the South China Sea are not likely to surface as a major component of the discussions.

Elke Larsen is a research assistant, and Alexandra Sander a researcher, with the Chair for Southeast Asia Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

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This year in Thailand-what next?

AseanAffairs   04 January 2011
By David Swartzentruber      

It is commonplace in journalism to write two types of articles at the transition point between the year that has passed and the New Year. As this writer qualifies as an “old hand” in observing Thailand with a track record dating back 14 years, it is time take a shot at what may unfold in Thailand in 2011.

The first issue that can’t be answered is the health of Thailand’s beloved King Bhumibol, who is now 83 years old. He is the world's longest reigning monarch, but elaborate birthday celebrations in December failed to mask concern over his health. More






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